Preview: Tasmania v SE Melbourne (Round 13)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 1 January 2023
Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

South East Melbourne 84 (Adnam 30, Creek 23, Williams 12) d Tasmania 79 (McVeigh 20, Kelly 18, Doyle 13) – Round 1 at John Cain Arena

Behind a red-hot Kyle Adnam the injury-hot Phoenix blew this season-opener out in the opening half, surging 18 ahead as Mitch Creek joined the party. New Tassie imports Rashard Kelly and Milton Doyle swung the contest, their ball-screen combination unstoppable as the JJs drew level with just over six minutes remaining, but Adnam and Creek scored 17 of South East Melbourne’s final 22 points and Wild Kyle sealed it from the stripe.

What happened last game?

Simon Mitchell’s men are injury-stricken once again, but they gave Brisbane a Round 12 touch-up before giving Adelaide all they could handle, Adnam and Creek again the standouts. The JackJumpers gave very little in Sydney on Friday as a club built on defending the island and playing hard on every possession barely gave a defensive whisper against Xavier Cooks and Co, and a loss Sunday will see them outside the top six looking in.

What’s working?

Role players – The injury bug keeps biting the Phoenix but their role players have bit back hard the past three games to help their team go 2-1 despite losing Zhou Qi, Ryan Broekhoff, Gary Browne and Alan Williams in the process. Going into those clashes as the league’s lowest-scoring bench at just 17.5ppg, they’ve compiled 25.7ppg since and gone +3 despite Kyle Adnam, Junior Madut and then Dane Pineau moving into the starting line-up, the contributions of Tohi Smith-Milner and Owen Foxwell almost pinching a win in Adelaide.

Owning the tempo – The JackJumpers have given up 90 points or more in four of their past eight games, which is notable because they’d only done so nine times in the club’s first 45 contests. In their history, Tassie are now 1-12 when allowing that mark, but 28-12 when keeping teams under 90. In the middle quarters on Friday, they lost control of the tempo, got caught up in the Kings’ high-speed game and were blown out 52-36 in those 20 minutes.

What needs stopping?

Star forwards – Cooks, Keanu Pinder and Creek have averaged 21.6ppg at 63 per cent inside against Tasmania, as teams continue to target Jack McVeigh. Scott Roth talks constantly about defending the island, but he left McVeigh on a one-on-one defensive island against Cooks on Friday in an uncharacteristically poor strategic display. Given Mitch has averaged 29ppg in his past five outings, will we see Rashard Kelly inserted into the game earlier?

Being soft – Jack wasn’t the only JackJumper who struggled defensively in Sydney, the usually-fearsome Tasmanians leaking a libellous 28/35 in the key at 80 per cent while only forcing the Kings into 17 three-point attempts. Worse still, the JJs grabbed just 12 d-boards at 67 per cent, having led the NBL at 77 per cent going in. It was one of the softest defensive performances in club history, and something they cannot afford to repeat against a Phoenix team who leads the league in free throws and shot 29-6 in the teams’ Round 1 meeting.

Who’s matching up?

Josh Magette v Kyle Adnam – Wild Kyle opened NBL23 with a bang, dropping 30 points on Tasmania. After taking a backseat to Browne he was back with a vengeance in Round 12, scoring 32 points and turning the ball over just four times in 60 minutes as SEM averaged 96ppg despite missing a number of stars. Magette was a non-factor in Sydney, playing only 18 minutes as he failed to take his usual control of Tasmania’s offence, but perhaps his most important job on New Year’s Day is disrupting Adnam to limit quality supply to Creek.

Will Magnay v Alan Williams – Add Magnay to the list of JackJumpers who lacked sting on Friday, grabbing only one rebound in 17 minutes and lacking the proactivity that has been a trademark of his rim protection. He’d better be ready to battle with the NBL’s number one post target in Williams, who showed toughness by playing through injury in Brisbane and has scored in double figures in 18 of his 19 games, while caroming six or more boards in 17.

Milton Doyle v Trey Kell – The unassuming Kell is clearly South East Melbourne’s number one plus/minus guy at 10.7 points per 40 minutes despite shooting just 39 per cent, and coach Mitchell will tell you that’s because he’s an intelligent two-way player. This is his first match-up with Doyle, who averages 13.5ppg at 21 per cent from deep in losses, compared to 19.4ppg at 39 per cent in wins. Can Kell and Co make him shoot contested shots from the arc and the rim?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Doyle making tracks ??<br><br>live on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<br><br>GAME DAY PARTNER: The Taste of Summer starts tomorrow and it’s going to be an absolute scorcher. Get yourself to PW1 and soak up the sunshine. Tickets at <a href="https://t.co/gAam6u9jTF">https://t.co/gAam6u9jTF</a> <a href="https://t.co/0PGhtQzu2r">pic.twitter.com/0PGhtQzu2r</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1607307701801082883?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

The South East Melbourne Phoenix received a huge compliment from Hawks coach Jacob Jackomas when he described them as one of the NBL’s best at playing all four quarters.

That would put a smile on the face of coach Simon Mitchell and GM Tommy Greer, who have spent the past four years trying to build a championship-winning culture.

While there have been plenty of highs, consistency and toughness are labels that haven’t been readily attributed to the expansion franchise prior to this season.

So far though, NBL23 appears to be the year the Phoenix have matured, fighting through perhaps the league’s worst injury and unavailability list to sit 12-8, with a chance to move within 1.5 games of Sydney with a win on Sunday.

“We've had some bad luck with injuries and illness the last few weeks, but as a club, we believe in our roster and trust the team we put on the floor will play as hard as they have all season,” Greer said.

“This is not ideal mid-season, but every cub deals with injuries and niggles at this time of the year. Everyone on the roster is ready for their moment.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Smith-Miler ? bucket ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/QqRIsrxlkD">pic.twitter.com/QqRIsrxlkD</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1606562819767697410?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 24, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That was certainly the case last week in Brisbane and Adelaide, and will need to be in Hobart after illness almost left the Phoenix unable to field a team.

“It was very much a possibility,” Mitchell told Newscorp.

“We’ve been on the road all week, in each other’s pockets and, when one COVID positive comes back and guys come down with all the symptoms, there’s a chance of a breakout in the group.

“We’ll still be missing a few, but we’re past that now.”

The question is can they get past the JackJumpers?

“They don’t tend to lose games with stretches of poor play, you’ve got to go out and beat them,” Mitchell said.

“You’ve got to really scrap and fight pretty much every possession.

“We’ve got a pretty good record in the past against them and we were severely undermanned when we played them in Round 1 and got up, so we look forward to that challenge again.”

Of course, after quarter-time on Friday the Tasmanians produced many a stretch of poor play, an out-of-character performance that caught coach Scott Roth by surprise.

“The just got after us in an old-fashioned butt-whopping, there’s nothing more to say. They were much more aggressive and we got our butt handed to us,” he said.

While the Kings cruelly exploited their defensive weaknesses, the JackJumpers have seen those cracks opening up too often for their liking this season.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? RATED <br><br>Live on ESPN via Kayo Sports + Foxtel <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/32m7qlsze0">pic.twitter.com/32m7qlsze0</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1608755183378481153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 30, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“When we’re good and we’re on top of people and being physical and we’re up in the lanes and pushing them out of their stuff we’re really tough, but we've failed to be consistent all year and we've got to be able to do that every possession,” Jarred Bairstow said.

“We let them get out in transition, we played into their hands taking quick shots and went one-out a lot, so there’s a lot of things that were within our hands to control.

“We let them shoot 79 per cent from two, they were living in the paint and that’s something we 100 per cent control. We can build walls and help each other out, that’s entirely on us and we have to take ownership for that loss.”

They’d better take ownership quickly, because SE Melbourne will be looking to hit them with a very similar game plan and see if they can defend the paint any better than Friday.

“They've got an explosive team, just like the one we just played with a lot of weapons and we’ll just do the best we can with them and our fight’s got to be a little bit better in general across the board,” Roth said.

“I'm confident with these guys regardless of what transpires over the next six weeks, I love these guys, I love their fight and effort and we’ll go game-by-game.”