R20 Preview: Melbourne United vs Cairns Taipans

Monday, May 31, 2021

Melbourne have dropped three of their past seven to have Perth breathing down their necks. Can they overcome Mirko Djeric and the confident Cairns Taipans at Qudos Bank Arena?

When: 7.30pm (AEST), Monday 31 May

Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Melbourne 83 (Goulding 15, Hopson 14, McCarron 14) d Cairns 73 (Machado 20, Ngatai 15, Oliver 14) - Round 12, Cairns Pop Up Arena

After eight ties and five lead changes Melbourne led by just a point after more than 33 minutes of action, but Mitch McCarron was on a one-man mission to win this one, producing eight points in 70 seconds to blow the game open. Ultimately it was United’s ability to get the foul line that clinched this one, as neither offence ever really clicked.

The now

Cairns certainly got things clicking on Friday night, making the most of their bonus home game to come from 16 points down late in the third term and put a dent in SE Melbourne’s hopes of locking up third place. That stirring win broke an eight-game losing skid, and after a long offensive dry spell, marked the second straight game the Taipans had topped 90 points.

It looked like the Snakes would be at home again but Melbourne copped a break with the game moved to Sydney, avoiding 2500km of travel on a 48-hour turnaround after battling through 50 minutes against the Kings. That double overtime loss leaves them just 0.5 games ahead of Perth, and while they lead Cairns by 17.5 games, their four contests have been tight.

The stats

- Melbourne lead this season series 4-0, but the average three-quarter-time margin has been just 3.5 points, and the average full-time differential just 7.3 points

- United have leaked 88.8ppg in regulation in their past five games, after conceding just 77ppg in the previous 13

- Cairns have averaged 95ppg in their past two games, after averaging just 76.8ppg in the eight games since Cam Oliver’s departure

- In the past two games the Snakes have nailed 27/53 from long range at 51 per cent. In wins they’ve averaged 11.9 triples at 41 per cent. In losses those numbers are 9.8 at 33 per cent

The key men

Shea Ili – Shili and Co relentlessly hand-checked and arm-barred Casper Ware, and while a boisterous Snag Pit might have made that difficult, a neutral venue means Scott Machado should expect plenty of physicality. Ili has not only been bringing defensive heat, he’s gone 6/9 from range in his past three, spreading the floor for his stars at the right time of year.

Majok Deng – The Taipans’ hot-shooting power forward has played just 19 minutes against Melbourne this season, and he shapes as the key to busting open their interior defence. Across the past two games he’s managed 34 points at 63 per cent and 4/7 from long range, and if he can keep connecting the United bigs will be forced to the perimeter.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How good was it to have Majok Deng back! ?<br>16 points in his return - our leading scorer ? <a href="https://t.co/h0n4x0DUiB">pic.twitter.com/h0n4x0DUiB</a></p>— Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1389539754589442053?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes

Mike Kelly has never lost faith in his team, even as they’ve lost one player after another during a testing season.

But even the poker-faced former defensive player of the year didn’t quite see last Friday’s incredible win coming after the Phoenix raced 16 ahead with 11 minutes to play, and still led by 12 with seven minutes on the clock.

“I still think we’re going to win every game we play, and if we play to our capabilities we’ll be in games with a chance to win,” he said.

“I never feel like we’re down and out, but at 12 down I didn’t think, ‘We've got this’, but these guys did, so it was good.”

For the loyal but long-suffering Taipans fans it was brilliant, especially as their team kept arguably the NBL’s best offensive unit to six points in the final seven minutes.

Having reverted to a large dose of zone with their undermanned line-up, Cairns have seen how quickly quality opponents run up points on a passive zone, but they remedied that against the Phoenix.

“I thought as a group we for the most part played defence with energy. SE Melbourne’s a good offensive team and they scored a lot of points, especially in that first half and third quarter, but the energy was good, and when it wasn’t they scored easily,” Kelly said.

“Majok was one of those energy guys, George Blagojevic played with great energy, especially in that second half, Nate came back in in the fourth and gave us great energy defensively, (so did) Tad.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">6. point. game.<br><br>*Insert eyeball emoji here*<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> live on ESPN <a href="https://t.co/ANJMnRpa0d">pic.twitter.com/ANJMnRpa0d</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1398233973466140680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 28, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Guys were getting hands to basketballs and talking to each other, it was just a beautiful thing to see guys playing defence with energy and Majok was one of the main guys there.”

The Taipans fed off the Snag Pit energy brilliantly, but now they face a very different task on Monday night.

While Melbourne is more than capable offensively, their defence is their ‘one wood’, and they haven’t been hitting it all that straight of late so expect a response.

Secondly, there will be no fans in Qudos Bank Arena, and Jordan Ngatai is not quite sure what to expect.

“I'm sure most of the boys have never played in front of a no-fan crowd so if you’re not talking you’ll get exposed, it should be interesting,” he said.

Dean Vickerman is in the same basket, but true to form the relentless Melbourne coach has a plan.

“We’ll start to talk about what it’s going to be like, I’ll talk to a couple of other people who have been through it and what you need to generate,” he said.

“I remember seeing the finals last year and watching both of the benches with Perth and Sydney and how active they were in supporting their team and the voice you head from them.

“Right now that’s my mindset about how much energy we can continue to create and how much we can reward great things, and the messages we can continue to give each other about the next play.”

Melbourne need to bring the energy to regain their league-leading form.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">JOCK<br>ROCKS<br>THE RIM ??<a href="https://twitter.com/JockLandale?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JockLandale</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/KR2LOPXsOS">pic.twitter.com/KR2LOPXsOS</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1398607879356043266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They are just 4-3 from their past seven games after falling to Sydney on Saturday, and this Friday’s clash with Perth may well determine home-court advantage through the playoffs.

“We've got three games left this season, we’re one game up on Perth and we need to secure that top spot,” centre Jock Landale said.

“Maybe some of us felt sorry for ourselves for two seconds there in the locker room but Deano and Chris (Goulding) picked us up and said we've got to get onto the next one and that’s the job, so ready for that next game on Monday.

“There have been times this season where maybe we've felt a little bit good about ourselves and this kind of pulls us back down to earth. Anytime we have a bad loss we seem to come out firing the next game, hopefully we carry that into finals.”

United have had great tests in those seven games, with all those contests against Perth, South East Melbourne, Illawarra, Sydney and Brisbane as they jockey for playoff positions, and Cairns will also bring some tests.

How well can their interior defence deal with Nate Jawai? How can their on-ball defence deal with the Scott Machado-Majok Deng combo? And can they defend the perimeter if those conscienceless Snakes marksmen get rolling?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">STOP IT MIRKO STOP IT<br><br>????<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> live on ESPN <a href="https://t.co/bmtQuJazIj">pic.twitter.com/bmtQuJazIj</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1398236390039556098?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 28, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Coach Kelly knows it’s a tough ask, but all he’s asking is for more of the same pride and fight and long-range shooting.

“Melbourne’s a great team and very tough, rolling right now, we’ll get some rest and get these guys ready and hopefully we’ll shoot over 50 per cent from three and we’ll have a chance there,” he said.

“I think when we talk about pride you have that already, but you have to bring it every day and show that, it shows that character.

“These guys having the pride in their game and their teammates allows them to continue to fight the fight.”