R9 Preview: Illawarra Hawks vs Perth Wildcats

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 27 January 2022

Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ


Who won last time?

Perth 94 (Cotton 24, Law 22, Blanchfield 20) d Illawarra 78 (Jessup 17, Rathan-Mayes 17, Harvey 11) - Round 8, WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Pre-season the Wildcats envisaged a terrific trio of Bryce Cotton, Vic Law and Todd Blanchfield, and eight weeks into NBL22 they finally saw it fire, combining for 66 points at 52 per cent in a dominant display. Perth cruised to an unexpectedly easy victory as they outscored the Hawks a whopping 72-43 from midway through the second term. Justinian Jessup and Xavier Rathan-Mayes made plays, but the rest of the Hawks failed to fire.


What happened last start?

Illawarra bounced back strong from that defeat, a blistering third-quarter burst putting Adelaide to bed as their defence completely disrupted the 36ers and Harry Froling caught fire from outside. The Hawks comfortably won the possession game, shared the ball and had eight genuine contributors, a key for the upcoming run of five games in 12 days.

Perth have four games in 15 days, and have been preparing for this rematch for the past five. The Wildcats struggled mightily to defend Illawarra in the open floor last time across the opening quarter-and-a-half, some sloppy errors getting the home crowd rocking. Once in the half-court though, the 'Cats made their hosts live and die by their perimeter sword.


Who’s in form?

Michael Frazier – The Wildcats’ third import isn’t getting headlines, but he is getting the job done, averaging a rock-solid 10.3ppg, 7.8rpg, 3.3apg and 1.8 steals over the past four games. Against Illawarra he had a clear game-high 10 defensive boards while dishing five dimes, showing his no-nonsense approach in the third term by playing through constant Xavier Rathan-Mayes bumping on a drive to the hoop to cleverly find Matt Hodgson for a three-point play.

Harry Froling – The 2019 Rookie of the Year got out of his comfort zone signing under Brian Goorjian, the results coming the past five games with 13ppg, 4.2rpg and 1.6apg in just 16 minutes a game. The highlight was Monday’s eight-triple, 27-point explosion against Adelaide, but he got just 5:26 against Perth last round and he needs to show his coach he can fix his defensive lapses and make an offensive impact against the Wildcats’ tough D.


Who needs to be?

Mitch Norton – In the past two meetings, Norton led a shutdown of Harvey to the tune of 10.5ppg on 9/29 from the field and 3/15 from deep. The good news for Hawks fans is T-Raw rediscovered his range against Adelaide with 19 points at 62 per cent, with three treys.

Illawarra’s defence – Goorjian went a little over the top musing the Hawks’ D could be the worst in the league, but after they held Perth to 22 points on 7/21 shooting (33%) in the opening 14 minutes, they leaked 72 points on 26/47 (55%) in the remaining 26 minutes.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cleveland this tweet is for you ?<br><br>Getting it done on both ends with emphasis.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/p3Adr8UiBY">pic.twitter.com/p3Adr8UiBY</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1484816995719602180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Who’s statting up?
 
 - The Hawks forced five turnovers and scored six points from turnovers in those opening 14 minutes, but only induced another six cough-ups for eight PFTs in the final 26 minutes

 - Perth gave up 35 points in the opening 14 minutes, including 26 from the paint or free-throw line. They allowed just 43 points in the last 26 minutes, with only 25 from the key or foul line and the Hawks shooting 4/20 from outside

 - The Wildcats defence ranks first in opposition three-point makes (6.9) and percentage (27%), second in opposition free-throw attempts (15.5), third in opposition scoring (79.1) and third in defensive field-goal percentage (41%), but last in defensive rebounding percentage (66%)

 - Six Hawks are averaging double-figure scoring, from Sam Froling’s 10.8 to Harvey’s 15.6. No other team has more than four, and Perth have just Cotton and Law averaging above 7.2ppg


Who’s matching up?

Duop Reath v Vic Law – The long arm of the Law dominated this match-up with 15 game-changing points in the second term, exploiting not only Reath but the Hawks’ changing defences, which presented plenty of mismatches. Antonius Cleveland switched to the four-spot and got physical, but it made no difference to Law and put AC on the bench with fouls.

While Law finished with 22 points at 60 per cent, Reath managed just six points on 2/11, and has delivered just 8ppp at 38 per cent and 5rpg in his past four games. Reath exploited bigger, slower power forwards earlier in the season, but against Law, Jack White and Xavier Cooks the going has been tougher. The Hawks need to get him some good looks early.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Duop Reath put them in the spin cycle late in overtime ?<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/DTx8HSgTj6">pic.twitter.com/DTx8HSgTj6</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1471790113436831746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Who’s talking the talk?

Brian Goorjian has been struggling to get the Hawks to the same defensive level as last year, and one sentence summed up a key reason why.

“We don’t have Justin Simon here anymore,” Goorjian said.

Illawarra’s trajectory changed last season when Goorj switched the spider-like Simon onto opposition ball-handlers, taking teams out of their offence.

Perhaps unheralded was the much-improved defence of AJ Ogilvy on the other side of the ball-screen, a level his replacements in the rotation haven't quite matched this season.

Daniel Grida was another huge piece in that defensive puzzle late last season, and he is sadly sidelined again with injury, while Ogilvy has only played a total of 30 minutes to date.

While the average team defensive rating has plummeted from 111.5 in NBL21 to 104.8 this season – due to the increase in physicality that's allowed advantaging defences – the Hawks’ rating has risen from 107.3 to 108.8, taking them from second to eighth.

That drop-off had Goorjian mighty worried heading into last round’s meeting with Perth.

“Going into this game, really nervous about the match-ups on Vic Law and Bryce,” he said.

“Those two scared me, how we matched up to them was a concern, and the start of the game we had them in check, from that point on we struggled to control that.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vic Law wasn&#39;t a fan of his scoreless first quarter apparently.<br><br>He&#39;s got a quick 1?5? next to his name.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/UACJKKgdqF">pic.twitter.com/UACJKKgdqF</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1484823991298654208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Goorjian masterfully mixed up his defences early with some presses back to zone, and some switching schemes that prevented Perth from getting an offensive rhythm that Cotton and Law could thrive in.

“We didn’t get (Law) as many touches as we probably should have in the first quarter,” Cats coach Scott Morrison said.

“You’ve got to give credit to the Hawks, they came out pretty strong defensively, they made it tough for us to move the ball and we had to make a few adjustments.”

In the opening 14 minutes, Illawarra forced 5 turnovers, grabbed 7 o-boards and got to the foul line seven times to lock the Wildcats in their defensive half and ensure they were usually advancing the ball against a set defence.

Once that dropped away though, Perth were able to pick the Hawks’ switches apart, Law the chief beneficiary. Not even the “new Justin Simon”, Antonius Cleveland, could slow the superstar forward down.

“I though as a coach and an organisation they did a real good job of creating mismatches with those two. Forcing a Coenraad or somebody to switch onto Bryce, forcing a mismatch on Vic,” Goorjian said.

“I thought AC struggled with Vic in the second half and the second quarter.”

It puts the ball in Illawarra’s court to make some adjustments for the rematch, but Morrison knows his team will face a tougher test this time around.

“We've got to treat it like it’s half-time,” he said.

“We’re really happy this goes in the win column and stays there, but at the same time this is a two-game series and we've got to win the second half.

“We've got to know they're going to come out harder, they're going to make some adjustments, we have to match their intensity ... There’s no one in that locker room that thinks it’s going to be easy.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gak. Attack.<br><br>But twice ??<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/akoldah?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@akoldah</a> <a href="https://t.co/3BxlEpaS9U">pic.twitter.com/3BxlEpaS9U</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1484819929584967680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


It will be very difficult if they give up another 13-point lead like last Saturday, where in the opening 14 minutes they failed to force a single turnover and grabbed just 60 per cent of their d-boards.

“We can’t always rely on those shots to fall in the third quarter, and we can’t always rely on Illawarra to miss some open threes like they did so we have to be better from the start of the game,” Morrison said.

“Sometimes when you watch good teams on film, it’s easy to point out what you would do when you play them in person, they often can surprise you because the speed at which they play or the force with which they attack can’t be replicated on film.

“At least we won’t have that excuse next (game) if we get off to a slow start, we know what we’re getting into and we know it’s going to be a tough battle, and teams are always going to be tougher off a loss when you play them back-to-back.”