R18 Preview: Cairns Taipans vs SE Melbourne Phoenix

Saturday, April 2, 2022

Mitch Creek and the Phoenix can't afford any more mistakes if they want to return to the playoffs, and a tricky date awaits with the Taipans in the Far North.

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 2 April, 2022

Where: Cairns Convention Centre

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ

Who won last time?
South East Melbourne 86 (Ashley 25, Munford 23, Creek 14) d Cairns 74 (McCall 14, Machado 12, Noi 12, Pinder 12) – Round 17, Cairns Convention Centre

The Phoenix entered Cairns having dropped four on the trot and played with the desperation you’d expect, Mitch Creek and Brandon Ashley dominant in a 10-minute 27-13 burst across half-time that proved decisive. The athletic pair combined for 16 points in that spell, while Xavier Munford’s penetration and pull-ups were a headache throughout.

What happened last start?

It was Simon Mitchell with the headaches in Adelaide two days later, the tired Phoenix never finding any real fight as the energetic young Sixers racked up 100 points at 50 per cent and marched to the foul line 31 times. South East Melbourne charged late, as Creek finally found some touch, but overall it was a tepid display exemplified by another horror rebounding performance.

Cairns had plenty of energy last Sunday as they lapped up the new officiating interpretations, burning the Breakers’ interior defence to go 25/44 inside and shoot 36 free throws. Bul Kuol and Nate Jawai were the main beneficiaries of the whistle, and while the Snakes couldn’t defend New Zealand either, a win is a win when you’ve only sung the song six times.

Who’s in form?

Bul Kuol – Bul’s claim for Rookie of the Year continues to strengthen, having scored in double-figures in four of his past five outings. But how did he respond when his seven-game stretch of 21/46 shooting from deep came to a grinding 1/11 halt against the Phoenix? He took just one triple the next game against New Zealand and got to the foul line 12 times en route to 17 points.

Xavier Munford – Of course, Kuol’s ROY claim is as much about defence, and he’ll be the man dogging the in-form Munford. With his team’s season well and truly on the line, the X-man has averaged 24.3ppg at 49 per cent, 4.0apg and 1.8spg in the past three. Cairns had no answer for him in Round 17, so the Phoenix shooters better be ready for the D to collapse.

Who needs to be?

Brandon Ashley – Compare the pair. Against Cairns, Ashley commits three fouls in 23 minutes, racks up 25 points and the Phoenix win. In Adelaide, he’s whistled for 4 fouls in just over 12 minutes, finishes with four points and South East Melbourne are humiliated on the road. Bash has averaged 2.8 fouls in the past four wins, compared to 4.2 in the past five losses. It’s not rocket surgery.

Scott Machado – It was sad to watch a superstar like Scotty struggle, much as Cedric Jackson did as injuries kicked in, but the past three games have shown promise, averaging 13.7 points at 35 per cent from deep and 7.7 assists. It’s no surprise Cairns won two of those three, and if they want to make it three from four, they need the best of Scotty on show.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Scott Machado with the NO-LOOK BEHIND THE BACK pass to the big man for the two! ? <a href="https://twitter.com/_ScottMachado?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@_ScottMachado</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Natejawai?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Natejawai</a> <a href="https://t.co/vBmPdGzoGN">pic.twitter.com/vBmPdGzoGN</a></p>— Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1507980918916452356?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s statting up?

- In their past four games, South East Melbourne have pulled in just 64 per cent of available d-boards, including just 55 per cent in losses to Adelaide and Illawarra. Their season average is 75 per cent, third best in the league

- In those four contests, the Phoenix have given up 61 per cent shooting from two-point range. Over the rest of the season they’ve conceded just 49 per cent inside

- The Taipans average 88ppg at 52 per cent on two-pointers in wins, compared to 73.1ppg at 48 per cent in losses

- Cairns have not held an opponent below 83 points since 24 February against Brisbane. Since then, they’ve leaked 88.1ppg in eight games for a 2-6 return. Over the opening 12 games they conceded just 81.6ppg

Who’s matching up?

Nate Jawai v Zhou Qi – The Phoenix sure missed Qi last week when they needed some settling offence, the international star averaging 30.3 points and 15.4 boards per 40 minutes in his past three games, shooting 71 per cent from the field. Coach Mitchell must use more variety with Qi’s ball-screen defence, opponents able to exploit repeat drops or shows.

That’s not such a big issue when Jawai’s on the floor, giving Qi an opponent of similar mobility to go against in a case of the ‘long and the wide of it’. Big Zhou will need to cleverly utilise his length against the girth of Nate, who had 16 points and five rebounds in just over 15 minutes against New Zealand to signal his injury is in the past and he is ready to fire.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big Zhou has come to play?? <a href="https://twitter.com/officialzhouqi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@officialzhouqi</a> <br><br>? Tune in on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/jB4jIUqMTU">pic.twitter.com/jB4jIUqMTU</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1505110014586867713?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s talking the talk?

While Cairns coach Adam Forde openly called out his team’s endeavour early in the season, the reality is despite their 6-14 record, the Snakes have played with heart the vast majority of the time.

For coach Forde, it’s about getting the small details right that reward effort, and he gave a great insight into that – and the level of detail NBL teams go into defensively to “blow up” opposition offences – after last week’s loss to the Phoenix.

“The start of the third quarter summed it up, credit to South East and whatever worked for them they kept going back to the well,” he said.

“We were really struggling with pick-and-roll concepts with Munford and Creek’s ability to get on the rim in the first half, and the adjustment in the second half was Brandon Ashley and his ability to be effective in the post.”

It seemed no matter what Cairns tried to get disruptive, they would find a way to self-sabotage.

“Brandon Ashley gets a right-hand hook, which is his preferred, low block, right-hand hook,” Forde said.

“Second sequence down they run ‘two curl’ again, get it to the block, Keanu does a great job trying to blow up the coverages, blow it up and get it to middle on-ball, we’re late to react to the middle on-ball in a drops coverage, Munford finds Ashley on the rim, 'and one'.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Starting the second half off with 4?? points for <a href="https://twitter.com/_Bash21?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@_Bash21</a> (now 5?? after this highlight ?)<br><br>? Tune in on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/U0IA9L8LXP">pic.twitter.com/U0IA9L8LXP</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1507289944620158980?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“The third sequence, we change up the coverage, he looks to front it, we do a good job blowing it up, they get into a side pick-and-roll, he rolls it back into the post.

“Keanu does a great job sitting on his shoulder, he spins baseline, he’s on his left hand, he doesn’t want to shoot on his left hand, Keanu walls up right until the last second and fouls him. So you’ve done all the hard work and you bail him out and he shoots two foul shots.

“Sure enough the fourth trip down they run two curl, now we defend the post well, we blow it up well, Ashley kicks it out to Mitch Creek because we've got guards digging in, Mitch Creek gets it on the perimeter, we close it out and allow him to drive middle, which is not what we want to do, Mitch Creek finishes on the rim.

“You can see the layers where we’re adjusting better, we just need to do it in a shorter window. We’re learning, and there are some great teaching points.”

It’s the same offensively, we’re the young Taipans aren't making the reads on what’s needed at a particular point in time.

“That was the message at half-time, I appreciate everyone’s enthusiasm to shoot it and pull the trigger and enjoy it, (but) it’s not dropping for us, so let’s go into the second half with the idea that we want to get a little bit more on the rim, get to the foul line, look a bit more for our post touches,” Forde said.

“Then the second half I think we sacrificed some good looks from the perimeter in trying to deliver on that message. It’s a balancing act we need to work on.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The rookie at the rim! ?<a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CairnsTaipans</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/iOOYgUCtwp">pic.twitter.com/iOOYgUCtwp</a></p>— Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1507983747697700869?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s quite the opposite for Phoenix coach Simon Mitchell, whose team has shown they can play at a high level at both ends, but they’ve been outworked too often in recent times.

“We got outmanned, everything to play for and physically we didn’t get the job done,” he said after the loss to Adelaide left them two games out of fourth place.

“You watch a kid like Hyrum Harris out there giving his all and impacting the game, and you look at some of the numbers we've got in our team, it looks like ‘gee they had a good game’, but they're false numbers.

“It’s the endeavour, fighting for positions on the floor, fighting for every square inch, fighting to box out, giving up your body, giving up some flesh, giving up some bone on every possession and I thought we failed that test this afternoon and that’s tremendously disappointing.”

Mitchell’s men now likely have to be go unbeaten in their final six games to make the post-season, meaning every night is like a playoff game.

“You can’t let big games spook you, you’ve got to go out there, the preparation, game plan, execute, play hard,” he said.

“One of the great ways to get yourself involved in games that are of highest importance is to go out and get a body on a body and we failed that.

"We talked about it after the Illawarra game - and they did the same sort of job of us on the boards. It hasn’t been a huge issue for us this year but it’s started to rear its head during the last few weeks - of just cracking in.

“That’s the important thing for us to move forward as a team and give ourselves a chance of making the playoffs.

“You look at a team like Tassie and they're cracking in on every play, and we’re taking way too many plays off and giving up our physicality.”