R15 Preview: Tasmania JackJumpers vs Illawarra Hawks

When: 1pm (AEDT), Sunday 13 March 2022

Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

Broadcast: Fox Sports; Kayo; 10 Peach, 10 Play; ESPN (delayed); Sky Sport NZ


Who won last time?

Tasmania 96 (Adams 28, McDaniel 20, Magette 16) d Illawarra 86 (Reath 25, Cleveland 20, Rathan-Mayes 12) – Round 12, WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Tasmania won in incredible style. After scoring just six points in the opening 6:30 and missing six of their first eight three-point attempts, the JackJumpers caught fire, nailing 20/34 from range thereafter. Sam McDaniel led the way with four first-half triples en route to 20 points, while Josh Adams was the man with 28 points on a staggering 8/11 from deep.


What happened last start?

The JackJumpers marched into Cairns – a notoriously tough place to shoot – and casually dropped 13 triples at 43 per cent as they ran the Snakes out of their own town. What coach Scott Roth would have liked most, however, was the return of the starchy defence, holding the Taipans to just 69 points, including just 15 points in 15 minutes surrounding half-time.

Illawarra had a night out last start too, taking down the Phoenix in Melbourne to keep a top two berth squarely in play. The Hawks were down 10 with 12 minutes to play but unleashed a 32-9 run over nine minutes, sparked by Antonius Cleveland, Justinian Jessup, Xavier Rathan-Mayes and an aggressive D that resembled last season’s tenacious playoff squad.


Who’s in form?

Josh Adams – JA was in ominous form Friday as he gets ready for his rematch with the Hawks, nailing 20 points with a beautiful balance of 11 from ‘ones and twos’ and nine from outside. Adams intelligently exploited Cairns’ ball-screen defence to get his mid-range game going, and Illawarra have some choices to make around what they're prepared to give up.

Xavier Rathan-Mayes – XRM was outstanding against South East Melbourne, putting on 10 points and 3 dimes in the final 13 minutes. He’s been at a high all-around level for a while, producing 10.7 points at 50 per cent, 5.3 assists and 4.9 rebounds in the past seven games, taking himself from a liability early in the season to now one of the Hawks’ most important pieces.  

Who needs to be?

Antonius Cleveland – When AC gets going, the game changes at both ends of the floor. He checked in last round with his team down 10, and in the final 13 minutes added 10 points, three rebounds, two assists and a steal. His past 10 games have delivered 14.7 points, 5.5 boards, 2.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks, including burning the JJs for 20 points at 58 per cent.

Matt Kenyon – Guess who was +26 in 27 minutes against Cairns? That’s right, Kenny. Tassie were having defensive issues with Will Magnay and Kenyon out, but in two games since their premiere backcourt defender returned they’ve held opponents to 11.5 points below their season average. The big question is will he guard Cleveland, Tyler Harvey or Jessup?
 

Who’s statting up?

 - The JackJumpers are 7-1 with Kenyon as a starter, and 1-8 with him benched or missing. Tassie are +64 with Kenny on court, while the next best rostered player is Josh Magette at +14

 - In the past seven games, Illawarra are +57 in Rathan-Mayes’ 23 minutes per game, and level-pegging in the other 17 minutes per night. Before that stretch, the Hawks were -74 with XRM on the floor

 - In their past 10 games, the JackJumpers have taken 46 per cent of their field-goal attempts from outside the arc, scoring 35.4ppg from threes and 32.4ppg from twos

 - In 11 Hawks wins they allow just 24.3ppg from the three-point line, compared to 35.6ppg in seven losses


Who’s matching up?

Jack McVeigh v Duop Reath – The power forward spot has been a defensive issue for the JackJumpers most of the season, especially against the league’s best. Last time, Duop had a night with 25 points at 60 per cent, and so far this season Reath, Vic Law, Mitch Creek, Robert Franks and Jarell Martin have averaged a combined 21.6ppg against Tassie.

That’s no surprise, given Scott Roth has publicly identified Jack McVeigh and MiKyle McIntosh as needing to improve their defensive contributions, but at the other end they’ve become keys to Tasmania’s massive improvement. In the past seven contests they’ve averaged a combined 26.3ppg, and the JJs need them exposing the Hawks’ frontcourt D.

Who’s talking the talk?

In the post-game presser following Tasmania’s stunning Round 12 win in the Sandpit, veteran play-caller Brian Goorjian almost appeared to be in shock.

“That’s hard to beat. It felt like we were playing the Phoenix Suns out there, it was very, very hard to deal with,” he said.

“I think they're very well coached they play very well together, they’ve got a cause, they play with a passion. Tonight, I thought they had a special offensive performance.”

The JackJumpers hit an improbable 22/42 from the arc – while Illawarra retorted with just 4/22 – as Goorjian’s men couldn’t find a way to deal with the JJ’s subtle ball movement into screening action for their star guards.

“We’re trying zone, we’re trying press, anything we did tonight they just penalised us with the three-ball. I thought even when we bunkered down and played 20 seconds of good defence they hit a contested three, and a lot of times with a guy where it’s not his forte,” he said.

“When you say the scout, maybe we were a step off, maybe we gave McDaniel a little too much, but I just thought that three-point line, the way they shot it and they way they play it was very hard to defend. We tried small, we tried big.”

Structurally and strategically they tried everything, but there is more to defence than that. The Hawks were reactive, allowing Tassie to execute their sets and create open looks and mismatches.

Goorjian effectively ran a seven-man rotation that night, as was commonplace for much of the season, and with his stars conserving their energy, they weren’t able to disrupt Josh Magette and Co in the slightest.

It may have been a leftover habit from Goorj’s time in China – where for the most part the stars play and coaches have little faith in their bench – but it took some unpleasant defeats for the second-year Hawks boss to take a good look in the mirror and fix the issue.

“It’s a different team, a different style, a different style of defence than I'm used to. Different than we played with the national team, different to what we played last year,” Goorjian said.

“The way we were playing also restricted my substitution patterns so it’s taken me a while to figure this out. The slow start, the bad defence, the rotations, a lot of it I look at myself now and kick myself in the ass a bit on the mistakes made.”

In recent weeks, however, he’s finally learned to trust his bench, and they’ve paid it back in spades, particularly in the huge win over SE Melbourne at the Fire Pit.

“Over the course of the season we've been probably the worst team at involving our bench, and depth or rotation. Tonight we were in a hole, we were stuck, and I think over the last four or five games we've started to get more contributions from our bench,” Goorjian said.

“Both times we were down 13 or 12 I rolled deep into the bench and I took them out to rest them. They carried us, they got us back into the game, they were hugely significant in the win.”

Their reserves won bench scoring 33-10, with an average plus/minus of +21.5, compared to their starters’ -11.2.

Their energy will be crucial against Tasmania, who play their bench the most minutes in the league, and their fresh legs allow the JJs to force more turnovers than any other team.

Given many pundits thought the expansionists depth would be an issue, that output highlights the selfless culture at the new club, and that was on show again in Cairns on Friday.

“I thought these guys were very disciplined, very solid, stuck to our game plan,” coach Roth said.

“Everybody came in and contributed in the right way and bought into the culture that we’re building.”

The JackJumpers’ Round 12 win in Wollongong gave their season life, now if they can repeat that dose in Hobart they’ll move within one game of the Hawks, and put playoffs squarely on the agenda.

“It is a team, and to be 9-9 at this point in the season is a great tribute to these guys, I'm extremely proud of them,” Roth said.

“I think it was just a good statement win for us to get to 9-9 with a chance on Sunday to peak our head above .500.”

Before beating SE Melbourne last week, the Hawks were 2-5 against the top six teams, and 0-4 against the top three, so Goorjian knows there is plenty of work to be done before back-to-back post-season appearances can be locked away.

“We've come out of a home stretch where we didn’t get done what we needed to get done, so now the pressure’s on us for the rest of the year and we've got a lot of the top teams on the road,” he said.