Preview: Melbourne v Perth (Round 5)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Monday 31 October, 2022
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 84 (Humphries 17, Rathan-Mayes 17, Goulding 16) d Perth 81 (Cotton 32, Travers 12, Webster 12) – Round 3 at RAC Arena, Perth

Perth and United put on another classic earlier this season, the visitors jumping out to an early 13-point lead thanks to a red-hot start from Chris Goulding and Xavier Rathan-Mayes. Bryce Cotton exploded with 22 first-half points to have the 'Cats back within two at the long break, and the second half was a typical Melbourne-Perth battle. Isaac Humphries’ size caused issues, Luke Travers’ playmaking was key for the hosts, but ultimately a big bucket from Goulding and two clutch free throws from Rayjon Tucker sealed the win.

What happened last game

The Wildcats once again came up short in an RAC Arena thriller, falling by a point to the Phoenix. Cotton was incredible as he rediscovered his long bomb, but when South East Melbourne made others beat them there wasn’t quote enough help. United had their own heart-stopper in the Gong, somehow escaping the determined Hawks in double-overtime with Xavier Rathan-Mayes making the big plays. While it wasn’t pretty, it was a desperately needed win to stay in touch.

What’s working?

Tucker starting – Changing the starting line-up was understandable for Melbourne, but taking out the guy with 39 points and 20 rebounds in the previous two games was a stretch. Rayjon had just settled as he adjusts to the different style of the NBL, and making him play with a new crew resulted in 13 points on just seven shot attempts and five turnovers. He did smash in for 13 boards though, and that will be huge again on Monday, but most important will be his penetration after movement to attack Perth’s inconsistent defence.

Upping the ante – Lacking a true centre, Perth’s pressure is the key to defending the paint. In the opening four games they forced 19.3 turnovers and gave up 52 per cent shooting on twos. Since then they’ve forced 10.5 cough-ups and leaked 64 per cent inside. On Friday, Perth outscored South East Melbourne 37-16 in 11 minutes bridging half-time, forcing six turnovers and allowing just eight points at 40 per cent from two-point range. Across the other 29 minutes, they only forced six cough-ups in total and gave up 40 points from twos at 69 per cent.

What needs stopping?

Isaac Humphries – It clicked for Ice and his teammates after the big centre had 12 decisive, second-half points as the roller against Perth. He was dominant offensively inside against Illawarra too, with 16 of his 20 points coming inside five feet. This time he has to face Wildcats import big TaShawn Thomas, who missed the previous meeting with injury and showed plenty at both ends in his 14 points, six-rebound, five-assist showing against South East Melbourne.

Luke Travers – The only way Perth took Humphries out of the game was using Travers in a small-ball line-up, where set up teammates exquisitely as a ‘point centre’. The 'Cats scored nine points at 57 per cent during that 3:39 second-term stretch, Travers scoring or assisting on all their buckets. When the Phoenix took away his passing lanes on Friday, he played off two feet and went 4/4 inside. Melbourne need a plan to limit LT as a playmaker.

Who’s matching up?

David Barlow v Jesse Wagstaff – Time hasn’t completely caught up with this veteran duo just yet. While neither has posted amazing stats this season, Barlow leads Melbourne’s plus-minus charts having shot 58 per cent from deep to rank third in the NBL, while Jesse is second on Perth’s plus-minus list and has drilled 53 per cent from deep to rank fifth in the league. Who can make the rotating defence pay the most on Monday?

Xavier Rathan-Mayes v Bryce Cotton – The three-time MVP was too much for Tucker in Round 3, and XRM took to the task manfully as the game wore on. Both these imports carry a huge load – Bryce leading the league in minutes (34:44) and points (22.2) per game, and Xavier sitting second and fifth (34:18 and 18.4). Cotton had 32 points the last time these teams met, XRM 17 points, 11 boards and five dimes. This should be one hell of a battle.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BRYCE COTTON SLAMS IT HOME! ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/reYAAWfYWb">pic.twitter.com/reYAAWfYWb</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1585953482057535489?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

The good news for Melbourne United is if they win this game, they go to 4-4, leapfrog the Wildcats and sit inside the ‘top six’ despite all the interruptions they’ve faced early in NBL23.

The bad news is if they can’t topple a desperate Perth team looking to avoid a four-game losing skid, last year’s regular season champions will fall to 3-5 despite six of their eight games being at Melbourne Park.

While the smashings from Sydney have caught the attention, an overtime win over ladder leaders New Zealand, a tough last-minute loss to road warriors Cairns and a stirring victory in Perth show this team is not far off the mark despite losing four key players in the off-season and being without the services of Shea Ili and Mason Peatling.

“We’re just trying to plug holes right now until we can get healthy,” Dean Vickerman said.

“When you lose all the players that we lost and all the knowledge of our culture, and we’re trying to re-teach it and win games at the same time.”

Perhaps the main reason their heads are still above water is Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who made the big plays again in Wollongong.

“In those moments you kind of pick a couple of plays and say this is what we ‘re going to play out of, trust it,” Vickerman said.  

“X put himself in the middle of the floor at different times and I thought he showed really good composure with his mid-range.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BACK-2-BACK FOR BARLOW ?<br><br>?: ESPN via Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/NLAeOFnbPp">pic.twitter.com/NLAeOFnbPp</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1586264618497757185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

While his 18.4ppg at 40 per cent from deep, 7.1rpg and 4.4apg are impressive enough, and his clutch shooting has been remarkable, his defence has been just as important.

Against Perth in Round 3, Bryce Cotton threatened to win the game off his own hand, but XRM stepped up and subdued him.

On Friday, his mate Tyler Harvey exploded out of the blocks, and again it was Rathan-Mayes who took on the job and kept his team in the game.

“I thought from half-time or even quarter-time afterwards we put him on Harvey and he was really locked in and that was a factor in us getting the win,” Vickerman said.

Can he back it up again 48 hours late and guide the offence single-handed while shadowing the league’s greatest ever scorer not named Andrew Gaze?

Probably not, but the good news for XRM and Melbourne fans is he won’t have to.

“Shea Ili’s passed the fitness test,” Vickerman revealed in Wollongong.

“Hopefully that can rest X for a few minutes on Monday night, and any time you go against Perth, having an extra high-level defender to try and slow Cotton down as much as you can is important.”

A fresher Rathan-Mayes is bad news for a struggling Brady Manek, who will again be put in plenty of on-ball situations defensively.

“For a guy fresh out of college to the professional level, especially the NBL there’s going to be growing pains,” Cats coach John Rillie said.

“Everyone has to be at a high level for everyone’s best to come out, we’re certainly not seeing the best of Brady Manek, but he gives great effort defensively.”

Expect Rillie to try and scheme TaShawn Thomas into as many of those situations as well, the 29 year-old starting to show what’s made him a high-level European import in Friday’s game against the Phoenix.

“Tonight was encouraging for TaShawn, you guys got to see as he gets himself into peak game shape the way he can impact the game in a lot of different ways,” Rillie said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Luke Travers is lighting up The Jungle!<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/iDqMSsduaM">pic.twitter.com/iDqMSsduaM</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1585967551489576966?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

For Rillie, it’s about a full roster that executes defensively across a full game, not giving up 24-point-plus quarters like they did early against Melbourne, and twice against both South East Melbourne and Tasmania.

“It doesn’t come down to those last few plays, how were we in the first quarter?” Rillie said post-game on Friday.

“We had a great second quarter, held them to 18 points, it carries over for 40 minutes so until we can get that consistency over 40, we’ll ebb and flow with our results.”

For Melbourne, it again comes down to not letting their offence impact their D. They were outscored 14-2 in less than three minutes bridging the end of regulation on Saturday to almost cough up another L.

That means in 60 minutes of basketball this season they’ve now been outscored 184-29, while being +116 in other 235 minutes.

The reality is, if they aren't willing to fight through the dry times on Monday, they’ll have a tough time overcoming a team desperate for redemption.

“They’ll be grumpy about losing another game at home and we expect nothing less than the battle we got today,” Vickerman said.