Preview: Melbourne v New Zealand

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 2 October, 2022
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; 10 Peach; 10 Play; Sky Sports NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 108 (Agada 17, Ili 15, White 14) d New Zealand 73 (Besson 17, Siva 17, Randle 11) at Round 12, NBL22, John Cain Arena, Melbourne
In what was a tough NBL22 season for New Zealand, this was one of the toughest days, smoked 60-33 in the opening half as United applied the defensive blowtorch that carried them to the minor premiership, then ran the Breakers off their feet in the other direction.

What’s new?

What’s not new is New Zealand being on the road! Sunday will be the 58th time in the past 65 games the Breakers have played on Australian soil, but the good news is there’s a full gamut of home games coming this season, and a bigger bunch of Kiwi players to enjoy it.

Izayah Le’afa, Dan Fotu and Tom Vodanovich join mainstays Tom Abercrombie (currently sidelined after eye surgery), Rob Loe and emerging big Sam Timmins in a home-grown core. They’ll be joined by strong-bodied import big Dererk Pardon, versatile American Jarell Brantley, dangerous scoring guard Barry Brown, long-range specialist Cam Gliddon and exciting French prospect Rayan Rupert.

Melbourne also looks significantly different to last year’s edition with Matthew Dellavedova and Jack White now in the NBA, Jo Lual-Acuil and Caleb Agada also playing overseas and Ariel Hukporti sidelined for the season with an Achilles injury.

Their recruiting brought in three new imports after running with just one the past two seasons. Jordan Caroline is a skilled and powerful big man, Xavier Rathan-Mayes is a closer who loves John Cain Arena and Rayjon Tucker is an athletic freak, while Aussie star Isaac Humphries can create scores for himself and others from the centre position.

What’s working?

NZ’s Next Stars – RJ Hampton got the Next Star wheels rolling in New Zealand, selected 24th in the 2020 NBA Draft. Then Ousmane Dieng followed him into the Show at the No. 11 pick earlier this year after a stunning burst in the second half of NBL22. However, as impressive as ‘Uzzy’ was, from what we’ve seen, Rayan Rupert may be the best one yet?

Pre-season form can be deceptive, but Rupert was one of the standouts of the Blitz, averaging 15ppg at 63 per cent from long range, while committing just four turnovers in 76 minutes. It wasn’t just the numbers though, the poise and decision-making was at an elite level for an 18-year-old, suggesting he could be a genuine contributor from Round 1.

Defence – It’s no surprise Melbourne were one of the defensive standouts of the Blitz, and it was built around Dean Vickerman’s philosophy of less minutes but more intensity. No United player racked up more than 28 minutes in any of the Blitz games, while 10 players played 14 or more in the first two games, and nine in the third with Hukporti sidelined.

The result? Vickerman’s men gave up just 70.3ppg at 41 per cent across the three contests. and conceded a lowly 14.3 free-throw attempts and 6.7 triples at 24 per cent. United held Aron Baynes to 2/8 shooting, Tyler Johnson to 2/7, Tyler Harvey to 5/14 and Bryce Cotton to 2/8. While it’s early days, Melbourne’s D doesn’t seem to have missed a beat.

What needs stopping?

Turnovers – While United’s D was Scrooge-like in the pre-season, if not for self-inflicted wounds they may have been impenetrable. Melbourne coughed the ball up 16.3 times per night at the Blitz and their opposition converted that into 20.3 points from turnovers. Rayjon Tucker was the biggest culprit with 10 miscues in 78 minutes, and the half-court offence will feel the strain if United keep gifting opponents open-floor opportunities.

Launching lazy threes – Remarkably, the Breakers heaved 113 triple attempts in three Blitz games, compared to 106 twos. While long-range launches are certainly a modern trend in basketball, when you connect at 32 per cent it’s not a recipe for success. One pleasing aspect for coach Mody Maor would be his team’s 37 per cent offensive rebounding percentage, a change in tact after being dead last at just 20 per cent last season.

Who’s matching up?

Xavier Rathan-Mayes v Will McDowell-White – After a disrupted NBL22 campaign, WMW has been handed the keys by coach Maor, a huge responsibility for an emerging 24-year-old who is the third-youngest Breaker. His ability at the defensive end will also be tested, with Xavier Rathan-Mayes one of the craftiest ball-screen operators in the league. In three appearances in Melbourne last season, XRM notched 52 points at 61 per cent and three Ws.

Jordan Caroline v Jarell Brantley – This is a fascinating early match-up between two strongly-built, versatile big men who are crucial to their teams’ fortunes. Brantley showed some promising signs at the Blitz, averaging 10.3ppg and 6.7rpg in under 23 minutes per game, but Caroline struggled to find his feet, scoring just 22 points in three games on 8/33 shooting. With Melbourne problem-solving the Hukporti situation, Jordan needs to produce.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Make way for Jordan Caroline ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBASummer?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBASummer</a> <a href="https://t.co/7wLdS7ntiJ">pic.twitter.com/7wLdS7ntiJ</a></p>&mdash; NBA TV (@NBATV) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBATV/status/1149786274422652930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 12, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Who’s saying what?

Anyone associated with NBL23 knows that Rayjon Tucker is doing plenty of talking.

“I’m the best import,” he said in response to a pre-season ranking of new imports.

“No other new NBL import checks off as many boxes. It’s no disrespect to anyone else that’s above me, but I don’t feel like there is a new import better than me.”

He wasn’t going to let that be an ambit claim, however, detailing exactly what he thinks he brings to Melbourne that is so valuable.

“It’s just the things that I’ve done and my accolades within both the NBA and the G League,” he said.

“I also don’t think there is a player ahead of me that check off all the boxes like I do.

“That is from an offensive and defensive standpoint. I feel like I’m an all-round player whereas as the other four guys ahead of me don’t tick all the boxes athletically and passing wise.

“Some players may shoot better than me, but they all don’t check off every single box like my games does.

“I can also be a rim protector, if need be, I can guard one through four, so my versatility in all aspects makes me, in my opinion, better than the rest.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">*Rayjon Tucker appreciation post* <a href="https://t.co/e1Ch7Az1g0">pic.twitter.com/e1Ch7Az1g0</a></p>&mdash; Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) <a href="https://twitter.com/utahjazz/status/1292927046163849218?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 10, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In contrast, the Breakers are more than happy to sneak up on sides after five seasons in the playoff wilderness.

“Every game, we’ll surprise more and more people. They will realise this is really real,” big man Jarell Brantley proclaimed to the New Zealand Herald.

“We have a lot of different tools and pieces. The best thing in my experience is just understanding what makes a team go.”

While scoring guard Barry Brown doesn’t have the resume of Tucker, coach Mody Maor thinks he could surprise people around the NBL.

“In the process of recruiting imports you don’t always get to choose a finished product. Part of our job is to identify talent that maybe hasn’t been tapped yet,” Maor said.

“Barry Brown is exactly that. He has the ability to lead the league in scoring, to be first-team all-defence, and to be an exciting spark plug every moment he’s on the floor. He’s shown it at times, and he’s missed it at times.”

The Breakers didn’t exactly raise expectations by going winless at the Blitz and losing Tom Abercrombie for an extended period, but their captain is confident in his group, even if it doesn’t possess the big names of other NBL rosters.

“Honestly, from the first day everyone came in, it was like we’d been together for months,” Abercrombie said.

“It’s a team of hungry individuals who have a point to prove and a little chip on their shoulder.”

No one has a bigger chip on their shoulder than United, after claiming the NBL22 minor premiership and crashing out in the semi-finals.

Their long list of star losses, notably big men Jo Lual-Acuil and Jack White, indicates they have the job in front of them to just make playoffs, but Vickerman is backing in the likes of Isaac Humphries and Jordan Caroline to fill the void.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? Coming soon to MU!<br><br>ICYMI - Earlier today we announced the signing of Isaac Humphries. Here’s a little look at what the big man can do! <a href="https://t.co/zSgJzXmwxz">pic.twitter.com/zSgJzXmwxz</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1550395212857769985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“(Humphries) had nine months out of the game, and he's played five games now, and we'd hoped that we could ease him in a little bit more to this workload, but I think he's ready for it,” Vickerman said.

“We're not going to play him 35 minutes, we're going to make sure that we maximise him in smaller efforts.”

Caroline is looking forward to maximising his talents in a league he feels suits his game, and he'll now get the chance to be a mobile five-man with Hukporti out.

“It’s a lot more fast-paced than Europe, the talent level is really good, and it’s a pretty physical league too. It’s a good test and I’m excited for it, and I like the style of it,” he said.

“It definitely reminds me a lot more of an American style of basketball … I feel like the style of basketball we play and the style of basketball in the league really fits the way I like to play and just caters to my abilities.”

Meanwhile, Vickerman is backing Tucker to walk the walk and provide the scoring punch alongside Chris Goulding that was missing for much of last season.

“There's an inner confidence there that he has the ability at times to dominate games," Vickerman said.

“He's totally gifted with the athleticism and the strength and agility that he has on the floor and now he's really understanding how to pick his spots and help other people as well.

“I love his willingness to understand the differences in how he's played the game in the (United) States and how we play here.

“We've been demanding of him in some areas, and I think he's extremely coachable and wants to get better in those areas.”