Preview: Melbourne v Brisbane (Round 10)

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 10 December, 2022

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 88 (Lual-Acuil 25, Goulding 13, Ili 13) d Brisbane 79 (Patterson 23, Cadee 20, Drmic 19) – Round 20, NBL22 at John Cain Arena

Jason Cadee produced his usual Melbourne Park performance and Lamar Patterson was at-times unguardable, but the inside dominance of Jo Lual-Acuil ultimately proved the difference, scoring 24 points in the paint and grabbing four boards at the offensive end, while cleaning up nine caroms and swatting three shots defensively.

What happened last game?

United would have given plenty for that presence last Monday as Sam Froling tore their Humphries-less interior defence to shreds, sinking the perennial finalists to ninth place on the NBL ladder. Brisbane were superb in their overtime win over Perth and then led the JackJumpers midway through the fourth, but after slicing up the Tassie D for much of the night, settled too often from deep once the JJs upped their trademark physicality.

What’s working?

Gorjok Gak – Brisbane’s rookie big showed plenty of promise at the Blitz, but struggled for minutes as James Duncan searched for answers. With their frontline depleted, Sam Mackinnon threw him to the JackJumpers last week, and Gak thanked his coach with 14 points at 78 per cent and nine boards in 19 minutes, going +2. His pre-season partnership with Aron Baynes was impressive, so look for that pair together upon Aron’s return.

Rayjon Tucker – On a dark night for the Melbourne United Basketball Club, Tucker showed plenty of fight, attacking the rim with menace and shooting with confidence en route to 27 points at 55 per cent and 4/8 from deep. It was a tough adjustment to the NBL at first, but Tuck has now averaged 21.4 points at 54 per cent and 11/23 from three in his past five games, putting him in the upper echelon of NBL scorers if he can maintain that pace.

What needs stopping?

Shea’s speed – You could hear the United sigh of relief from Brisbane when Ili was cleared to return and for good reason. In his two games at Melbourne Park to date in NBL23, the feisty Kiwi has scored 24 points in 32 minutes of play, connecting at 73 per cent and 4/7 from deep, while dishing eight dimes to one turnover. United have averaged 102ppg at 57 per cent in those contests, compared to 80ppg at 43 per cent over the rest of the season.

Easy options – Brisbane scored an electric 54 points in the first half against Tasmania last round, taking 22 shots in the paint as they sliced the defence to pieces. In the second half they managed just 30 points while attempting 11 shots from the key. At a time when free throws are being given out like Christmas candy, Brisbane shied away under the JackJumpers’ physicality instead of attacking the hoop and putting pressure on the officials.

Who’s matching up?

Isaac Humphries v Aron Baynes – Subtract Humphries, add embarrassment. That was the equation for Melbourne as their centre missed two games through illness and they crashed to South East Melbourne and Illawarra, averaging 75.5ppg and giving up 61.5 points from ‘one and twos’. Baynes has missed the past three and the Bullets have developed a more free-moving offensive style under coach Mackinnon, but considering Baynes’ success in Phoenix and with the Boomers, he should adapt just fine with his inside-outside game.

Chris Goulding v Nathan Sobey – With Tanner Krebs out injured, the main responsibility for Goulding will likely swing back to Sobes. Bubbles will be very keen for a big night against a Bullets team he used to terrorise, having averaged just 10.3ppg on 9/33 shooting last season. Sobey only faced Melbourne once last season for 18 points, but he’s getting closer to his All-Star NBL21 form if his 48 points in the past two outings are anything to go by.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SOBEY THROWS IT DOWN WITH AUTHORITY!!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/stz4f76Dr5">pic.twitter.com/stz4f76Dr5</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1598249906657165312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

It might have been yet another disappointing start to a season for Brisbane fans, but the truth is a win over Melbourne at John Cain Arena on Saturday will have them within 1.5 games of the top six with their best basketball still to come.

While much of the public discussion centres around the return to form of Nathan Sobey, the gradual emergence of the efficient Tyler Johnson into more of a bulk scorer and this weekend’s return from injury of Aron Baynes, internally there are other highlights.

For new coach Sam Mackinnon, it’s the play of recruits like DJ Mitchell and Gorjok Gak that have him excited, knowing the supporting cast is just as important as the leading lights.

“We had our eyes on DJ a couple of years ago. He did a workout for us but (there was a) citizenship passport issue,” Mackinnon said.

“We’re loving having him here. He came out and played NBL1 for Gold Coast and found his way, and he’s finding his way now at NBL level.

“He probably needs to stop driving on people and getting charges, we've got some tape for him this week and I'm sure he’ll make that adjustment, he’s such a good athlete he can stop and jump over people.

“He’s figuring out the game with opportunity, and with the roster build being changed this year at the last minute that’s provided him lots of minutes.

“Gak tonight got lots of minutes and you can see what they can do when they get that.”

Gak was one of the talking points of the NBL Blitz in Darwin, but it often takes another year or two for youngsters to convert pre-season form to the real deal.

In contrast to Mitchell, Gak is someone who’s minutes were eaten into by the late addition of Baynes, and by late October he was barely seeing the court.

However, injuries to Baynes, Tyrell Harrison and Tanner Krebs left the Bullets badly needing frontcourt help, and the long-armed 211cm athlete showed his full potential against Will Magnay and Co.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">GET THAT OUTTA HERE ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/HQ57G69Rb2">pic.twitter.com/HQ57G69Rb2</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1599289347337228288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“I told G when we recruited him that we wanted him here earlier to get his body right, because athletically and length he’s elite in our league and you saw tonight what it can be,” Mackinnon said.

“Once he really goes after it he’s next level.”

Gak has blocked four shots in the past two games, while Melbourne managed just two as a team as they leaked points, o-boards and free throws to the Hawks.

“We get close and it’s either a defensive error, a turnover, a missed box out, or just one of these effort plays, things that you have to have a commitment to over the 24 seconds of the shot clock,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

“We didn’t finish plays there for a while, 12 offensive boards for them and it turns into 18 points, and they just capitalised on the errors that we made.”

It’s frustrating for Vickerman, who has long prided himself as a defensive minded coach, to see his team hold the powerful Phoenix side to 78 points, then allow an unsettled Illawarra line-up rack up 93.

Even within that Throwdown game, they gave up 45 in the opening 20 minutes then just 33 after interval.

“We’re a team right now that just fluctuates,” Vickerman said.

“We’re searching a little bit right now to get the positives to go get a win. We don’t have that commitment for long enough in possessions or in games right now.”

Help is on the way, with Shea Ili and Isaac Humphries returning for Saturday’s home date with Brisbane, and 'Shili' knows exactly how he’s going to contribute.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Shea Ili with the silly reverse layup ?<br><br>Melbourne United making a charge at the quick-firing JackJumpers. <br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/jJAcAID1uM">pic.twitter.com/jJAcAID1uM</a></p>&mdash; ESPN Australia &amp; NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ/status/1490188910801997824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 6, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“The energy I bring defensively, I feel like that will create our pace going down the other end,” Ili said.

“If we all buy in and play defence and create easy offence down the other end, I feel like we can win.”

Rayjon Tucker shot the two-ball at 77 per cent in the three games Ili has played, with a part of that being the open-court opportunities the increased defensive pressure creates.

With two wins this weekend potentially pulling United within one game of the top six, but two Ls leaving them as many as three games adrift, Tucker is calling on his teammates to follow Shea’s lead.

“We’ve got to play with desperation in my opinion, we’ve got to play with some physicality,” he said.

“It starts with defence, and I feel like we have the offensive power. Dialing in on the defensive side I think that’s how we can get it done.”

The Bullets won’t have any fears coming to Melbourne Park though, winning three of their past eight at the venue, and they’re bringing a positive vibe after downing Perth and almost toppling Tassie.

“It's been a tough nine days for everyone, a new coach, it was our third game (and) I loved the way we played, loved it, next man up mentality, everyone competed, for 37 minutes I thought we were pretty good,” Mackinnon said.

That feeling seems to be mutual amongst the playing group.

“Sam is an accomplished player so we all trust him,” Gak said.

“We’re just trying to buy in to what he’s trying to tell us to do at the moment, play a little bit faster and run and I think that’s when we’re at our best.”