Preview: Melbourne v Adelaide (Round 18)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 5 February, 2023
Where: John Cain Arena
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 94 (Goulding 28, Tucker 25, Rathan-Mayes 20) d Adelaide 87 (Franks 24, Sotto 15, Dech 14) – Round 16 at Adelaide Entertainment Centre

Chris Goulding set the Adelaide Entertainment Centre ablaze, and silenced the record crowd, with 10 points in 150 seconds to start the game and give Melbourne the early edge. While the 36ers charged again and again – pulling within a basket three times, level six times and taking the lead twice – United had all the answers, an 11-0 run midway through the fourth period and a 5-0 finish in the final 110 seconds pushing them past the Sixers.

What happened last game?

It was Dean Vickerman’s men on the receiving end of a late barrage when New Zealand unleashed a 24-2 run bracketing three-quarter-time to put Melbourne on the playoff precipice. Perth’s flailing form has brought them right back into the fold however, now in sixth place, just 0.04 per cent ahead of the 'Cats with both teams having one game to play.

Adelaide appeared to have fallen off the finals cliff after dropping five in a row, but a gutsy road win in Cairns and a showtime home W over Sydney in front of another record crowd has them in contention again. To progress to the post-season for the first time since 2018, the 36ers must defeat Melbourne by in excess of 21 and hope Sydney do the same to Perth.

What’s working?

Antonius Cleveland – There’s no one to thank more for pulling Adelaide back from the fire than AC, who’s compiled 50 points at 59 per cent, 8/13 from deep, 12 rebounds, 10 assists and six steals in those two wins, the 36ers +25 with him on the floor while the rest of their starters have averaged -6.8. Cleveland’s foul trouble in Round 16 limited him to just 13:45 on court, and was perhaps the defining factor in Melbourne escaping with the W.

The perimeter troika – With Antonius on the bench, United’s perimeter stars could shine, Chris Goulding, Rayjon Tucker and Xavier Rathan-Mayes combining for 73 points on 15/29 from the arc, backing up from their 71 points in Brisbane. In Auckland with no Shea Ili, however, they managed just 50 points on 5/23 from outside, and the ability of Cleveland, Sunday Dech, Anthony Drmic and Co to limit their quality touches will be critical.

What needs stopping?

Not being ready – Sixers’ fans will be hoping their team comes out awake this time around. In the last meeting, they slumbered out of the changerooms as Goulding scored 21 points on 8/10 shooting in the four minutes following tip-off and half-time. Coach Bruton has used more versatile defensive line-ups and evoked more switching in order to solve his team’s defensive woes, but they’ve still given up 102.3ppg in their past six outings.

Robert Franks – Thankfully, Adelaide have averaged 96.9ppg themselves, including 107ppg in the past two, with the hot hand of Robo taking advantage of his coach’s instructions to fire with confidence. The uncanny American has delivered 22.7ppg in his past seven, shooting 63 per cent inside and 21/44 outside. He’s burned Melbourne for 22.5ppg at 72 per cent inside and shapes as a tough match-up for Mason Peatling and Dave Okwera.

Who’s missing key men?

Melbourne will again be without Shea Ili and Dave Barlow (both concussion), while the 36ers are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Xavier Rathan-Mayes v Ian Clark – In four wins and a pair of one-basket losses, Clark has averaged 14.2ppg on 13/25 (52%) from long range. In his other games as a 36er, he has struggled with 7.7ppg on 1/16 from deep. XRM’s past three games have delivered 18.3ppg on 12/24 from range, after a run of six outings where he slumped to 5ppg on 1/16. Which of these imports can produce their hot-shooting best to keep their team in the hunt?

Isaac Humphries v Daniel Johnson – DJ had a massive impact off the bench against Sydney, thriving in the open-court style with 12 points at 50 per cent, six rebounds and five assists in 21:40 to be a game-high +21. The Kings weren’t able to exploit Johnson defensively to force CJ Bruton to look elsewhere, and that’s where Humphries must be utilised consistently on the roll-out. In just his second game back, it will be a case of score or be scored on for Ice.

Marcus Lee v Kai Sotto – Lee’s season stats of 9.2ppg, 7.5rpg and 1.5 blocks look solid, but in his 15 games United have been +92 with him on the floor and -91 with him resting. He was a game-high +15 last time against Adelaide, despite the fact Sotto impressed with 15 points at 67 per cent and seven boards in his 17:31. Lee is a huge deterrent to penetrators, so the Sixers must have awareness of Sotto and utilise him as a lob threat.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hangin&#39; with Mr. Sotto.<br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/CHn4cJnCPR">pic.twitter.com/CHn4cJnCPR</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1621438962245193733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Sunday’s penultimate clash of the NBL23 season between Melbourne and Adelaide could be heaven for those who love a bit of run-and-gun basketball.

With United potentially in a percentage race with Perth, and the 36ers trying to hunt them both down, all the teams know for sure is they need to pile on the points.

“They only thing that’s in our hands is how well we come out and perform. To make the finals we know we have to get a win,” Melbourne coach Dean Vickerman said.

“Right now we’re preparing to play super-aggressive, fast and aggressive and I think the guys are up for that.”

Adelaide boss CJ Bruton is the son of Cal “run, stun and have some fun” Bruton, and he feels well prepared for what’s to come in a number of ways.

“Do we have to go do something spectacular, do we have go and be Golden State,” CJ laughed.

“I've got a guy who used to play with Golden State, so I’ll just say we need to go and be that team. I've got guys who can shoot the ball.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Caught &#39;em slippin&#39;. <br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/EdfEmeDCsT">pic.twitter.com/EdfEmeDCsT</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1621452118300434434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Obviously, Bruton is talking about late-season recruit Ian Clark, a title winner with the Warriors in 2017 who has found some ominous form in the past two games.

It’s no surprise that after two critical losses with one of new backcourt buddies Clark and Mitch McCarron missing from each, the 36ers have found form with their first-choice backcourt finally logging big minutes together.

“He’s one of the guys I look to, he’s the captain and I think his energy makes us go,” Clark said.

“Having another ball-handler out there that’s ready to get guys involved, he looks for me and I was a little bit more comfortable coming off ball-screens and trying to make plays tonight.”

It’s a big boon for McCarron too, with his running mate providing a huge leadership presence to keep the up-and-down 36ers focused, something that’s been a huge part of Adelaide taming the top two in their past two outings.

“In games it’s play-by-play, knowing that everything isn’t going to be great but making sure we’re playing for each other as much as possible and letting mistakes go, trying to correct it the next time,” Clark said.

“We did that, we stayed together, stayed resilient and got the win … what we've been able to build in the last couple of games, I'm pretty sure everybody can see that, so right now our focus is on Melbourne.”

United’s focus this week has been changing their more methodical style to up the ante defensively and create scores from opposition mistakes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">CG setting the tone early!!<br><br>?: ESPN on Kayo Sports or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/UxDLkq8BxZ">pic.twitter.com/UxDLkq8BxZ</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1616726887476396032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It will be a challenge without their chief disruptor, Shea Ili, but coach Vickerman is optimistic.

“We’re 11-3 with him in the line-up but this is challenge for us, the one we haven't been able to do is beat good teams without him in the line-up,” Vickerman said.

“It’s an adjustment to the way that we play, going even more aggressive, and we've seen X flourish in that where he’s got a license to be aggressive and shoot the basketball, like the first game of the year against New Zealand, where we played like that, I think it will be good for him.”

After watching his team average 107ppg against the two best defences in the league the past two games while nailing 29/60 from deep, coach Bruton feels good about making up the 1.73 percentage gap on Melbourne.

With Antonius Cleveland, Sunday Dech, Anthony Drmic and Kyrin Galloway making a big impact defensively to generate run, the former Brisbane assistant hopes his new squad can replicate the Bullets’ 36-point final-day win in NBL20 to reach the post-season.

“Everyone is playing with confidence, our three-point (percentage) is a little higher than what it's been in the middle of the year. You want to play good basketball at this time of year to be a shot to go and make the playoffs,” he said.

“I've been a part of a team that’s done that and put some points on the board at a high level in Brisbane, where you thought we probably couldn’t get in the playoffs and we got in on the last game.

“I like to think we’ve got the firepower to do something like that and play that brand of basketball, there’s a very good chance.”