Preview: Brisbane v Melbourne (Round 13)

When: 4pm (AEDT), Sunday 1 January, 2023
Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 104 (Goulding 20, Tucker 20, Lee 18) d Brisbane 88 (Sobey 24, Gak 15, Cadee 14) – Round 10 at John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Brisbane brought an offensive mindset to Melbourne Park in Round 10 and for most of the night they gave United all they could handle, Nathan Sobey going 4/9 from outside and Gorjok Gak showing his huge potential around the rim. But Chris Goulding’s outside game, Rayjon Tucker’s attack on the rim and Marcus Lee’s size inside proved too much to handle, Melbourne pouring on 33 points in the final quarter to seal the win.

What happened last game?

United showed plenty of fight in the Christmas Day game in Sydney, but despite the best efforts of Tucker and some sublime rim protection from Isaac Humphries, Goulding’s absence through illness proved too much to overcome. Brisbane seem to have put aside their issues post-Christmas with Sobey back to his best form, downing Perth in overtime and coming within a missed Tyler Johnson triple of taking Adelaide to an extra period.

What’s working?

Sharing the load – While Sobey has justifiably received the headlines, it camouflages what has been an outstanding offensive team performance since Christmas, with five Bullets scoring in double-figures in both games. That ability to attack through multiple avenues has seen Greg Vanderjagt’s men shoot at 57 per cent from two-point range, up from 50 per cent, and average 62 points from ‘ones and twos’, up from 54.5 in the opening 16 outings.

Interior defence – Melbourne have the two leading shot-blockers in the Hungry Jack’s NBL and they're making an impact, the usually-efficient Kings shooting just 45 per cent from two-point range on Christmas day as Isaac Humphries put on a clinic with six blocks. That rim protection has allowed United to give up just 8.3 triples at 31 per cent, but they’d be disappointed in allowing Sydney to go 11/24. Can they rediscover that balance in Brisbane?

What needs stopping?

Fouling – Brisbane held the Wildcats and 36ers to 47 per cent from inside and 14/48 from the arc in an impressive display of proactive and changing defences. However, they gave up 73 free throws in those two outings, and with the game being officiated significantly differently at the rim than around the court, the Bullets must learn to apply physicality on the perimeter and then wall up at the cup to avoid gifting Melbourne cheap points.

Nathan Sobey – How about 28.3ppg at 64 per cent inside, 39 per cent outside, 22/24 at the foul line, 4.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game? Those are the ridiculous numbers Sobey has produced in the past three outings, with his only Achilles heel being his 17 turnovers, which while aggressive are opening the door for opponents. Expect Shea Ili and Rayjon Tucker to share this job, using their speed and athleticism to send Sobes into United’s tall trees, and their pressure to force mistakes and spark Melbourne’s running game.

Who’s matching up?

Aron Baynes v Humphries & Lee – Baynes will relish this battle with two traditional centres, but he came off second best last time when Melbourne’s two-headed monster combined for 24 points at 67 per cent and 13 rebounds, Lee the standout with 18 and six. Banga barely returned fire with seven points on 3/10, five boards and four turnovers. He’s had 36 points and 30 caroms in the past three games though, and will be keen for vengeance.

Tanner Krebs v Chris Goulding – CG43’s put in 20.0ppg on 4.4 triples at 40 per cent in his past five games while also dealing 2.4 assists, and he was a huge loss on Christmas Day. He burned the Bullets for 20 points on 6/10 from deep in Round 10, but Krebs was injured that day and he’ll be hungry for this match-up. The emerging Tasmanian has been huge at both ends for Brisbane since returning, posting 28 points, 12 boards and going +22 in 58 minutes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WELCOME BACK TANNER KREBS ??<br><br>Watch on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/kxWZ55HzkR">pic.twitter.com/kxWZ55HzkR</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1607672838550609922?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Melbourne assistant coach Justin Schueller summed things up succinctly when asked about the importance of Sunday’s trip to Brisbane.

“Every game now is our gold medal game,” he told SEN radio.

“We need to keep taking steps forward… our basketball over this past month we’ve been pretty pleased with.”

It’s a similar scenario for United and Brisbane, who sit on 9-12 and 5-13 records respectively, and have little or perhaps even no margin for error if they want to make the post-season.

It’s a strange situation given both teams feel like they’re finally just getting their teams together, with Melbourne 4-2 since welcoming Shea Ili back into the lineup and found the recipe to get the best out of Tucker.

“I think the hardest thing we found early on was just not being able to find roles,” Schueller said.

“It felt like every week we had someone different out or we were changing someone’s role within the group to just make do… in any sport that’s a tough environment.

“I think the beauty of being able to have some consistency in our lineup of late has been a positive, and we know we’re going to be able to make a really good push for the play-in now that we have those roles defined and everyone’s back to full strength and full health.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Throw it down Tuck ?<br><br>?: ESPN / Channel 10 / 10 Peach <a href="https://t.co/FUqNPJHzq1">pic.twitter.com/FUqNPJHzq1</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1606922539296780293?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 25, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They fell into a three-point happy trap in Sydney, taking 51 heaves from outside despite a sick Chris Goulding watching from home, and that allowed the Kings to run up 101 points despite Melbourne’s D making life tough when in the half-court.

In the three-game winning streak prior to Christmas, CG43 averaged 11 triple attempts while the rest of the roster fired up just 15, and that balance helped their defence hold opponents to 78ppg as their rim protectors got set.

“It allows guys like Shea and CG to be aggressive at the point of attack and pressure the ball, because they know that they’ve got Ice behind them as the ultimate last line of defence,” assistant coach Rhys Carter said.

“Ice, along with Marcus both give us that elite rim protection, and we’re going to need the best they’ve got heading into the rest of this road trip.”

They’ll be tested out plenty by the Sobey-led Bullets, who have changed tack under coach Vanderjagt.

Many scratched their heads as the big and athletic Brisbane team led the NBL in three-point attempts early in the season, but that’s not the case under the seven-footer’s watch.

“We need to keep playing the same way and reap the rewards of our pressure on the rim,” Vanderjagt said.

“That was certainly a focus for us tonight and I thought we did a good job of it, we shoot 28 threes, we shoot 41 shots in the paint, that’s a really good balance for us.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big. Man. Ballin’. <br><br>Bangers, DJ and Gak all getting on the rim ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/2oq92YZeuS">pic.twitter.com/2oq92YZeuS</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1608392499999145984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

However, at a time when positional defenders are regularly being whistled at the rim, the Bullets only got to the foul line 39 times in their past two games while watching opponents get to the stripe 77 times.

“We win a game in Brisbane the other night, Perth shoot 40 free throws, we lose a game tonight we shoot 18 and Adelaide shoot 33, we need to go back and work on our foul discipline,” Vanderjagt said.

“The frustrating thing for me is Sobes and Baynes live in the paint and between them they shoot six free throws.

“Sobes is on the rim all the time, he’s getting downhill, we shoot 41 shots in the paint, Baynes is around the rim the entire game.

“I feel for the big fella because he’s down there battling and he’s so strong and he’s such a large human being the contact doesn’t look like it affects him.”

Melbourne will need to defend intelligently on Sunday with Vandy sure to be working the officials and telling his team to keep moving the basketball and getting feet in the paint.

With Tyrell Harrison back in uniform, point guard Jason Cadee feels his team is finally together and playing the roles best suited to them

“The balance has been a bit more right, we just haven't had enough of it this year with everything that’s gone on,” he said.

“The last week it’s been a better feel and it’s been more natural, we've got people in (the right) positions), we've got people who understand the league a little bit more ... It felt like we were a basketball team tonight and we were playing the right way.”