Preview: Brisbane v Cairns (Round 7)

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 19 November, 2022
Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Cairns 112 (McCall 42, Deng 30, Pinder 17) d Brisbane 98 (Franks 30, Krebs 20, Samuel 14) – Round 21, NBL22 at Cairns Convention Centre

Last time these teams met, Cairns completed a four-game sweep of the Sunshine Stoush in an old-fashioned shoot-out at the Snakepit. Tahjere McCall was unstoppable in the defence-free zone, racking up 42 points at 65 per cent – including 14/18 inside the arc –  and 10 assists as the free-wheeling Taipans turned a double-figure second-quarter deficit into a 28-point lead in the final term to give their fans a cheery end to the season.

What happened last game?

Cairns ran up another cricket score last round, torching Melbourne for 82 points after quarter-time as they unleashed a three-point barrage and dominated the o-boards to grab whatever missed. It was quite the opposite in Hobart as the Bullets escaped with a 74-72 victory in a brutal game they once led by 18. After starting 0-5, however, any win is a good win, and another W on Saturday will have Brisbane within a game of the top six.

What’s working?

Owning the inside – Aron Baynes and Co were dominant inside against the JackJumpers, winning scores by ‘ones and twos’ by 17 points, to make them +42 in their three-game winning streak, having been -70 in their five losses to start the season. With Baynes and Tyrell Harrison towering targets inside, and Nathan Sobey and Tyler Johnson both getting back to best form and shifting the defence, the Bullets’ interior is hard to guard.

Owning the outside – Cairns are happy to do their damage from distance, dropping 15 triples at 41 per cent to outscore Melbourne by 21 points from the arc in their 25-point win. The Snakes lead the league with 11.8 made triples per night, but interestingly take 54 per cent of their field-goal attempts from the arc in losses and hit just 29 per cent, compared to 46 per cent of shots from outside in wins with a 36 per cent success rate.

What needs stopping?

Tyler Johnson – Mr Efficient is nailing 52 per cent on both twos and threes as Brisbane continue to lead the league with a 40 per cent clip from deep. Johnson has taken it to another level from mid-range though, shooting 83 per cent on long twos and floaters in the winning streak to punish teams trying to run him off the arc. He’s only averaged 7.7 shots in those three games though, meaning it’s only Brisbane stopping him at the moment.

Big boy sags – The Bullets are third in defensive field-goal percentage (41 per cent) as their drops defence allows Baynes and Harrison to protect the cup. They forced Tasmania into taking 21 of their 35 two-point attempts from beyond five feet. In contrast, Cairns took 30 of their 38 twos inside five feet against United. Are the Snakes’ talls athletic enough to score over Brisbane’s bigs? And can Shannon Scott and DJ Hogg hit enough pull-ups to expose the dropping defence?

Who’s matching up?

Nathan Sobey v Shannon Scott – How about 36 points at 52 per cent and 12 assists? That’s Sobey’s past two games as he has sprung back to life following his knee injury. He’s dealt 6.2apg in the past five outings, making Scott’s ability to shadow him over screens and allow his bigs to recover crucial. The Snakes’ leader is averaging 15.8ppg at 48 per cent from deep in Ws, compared to 6ppg at 14 per cent in Ls, so Sobey and Co need to lock him down.

Aron Baynes v Keanu Pinder – The fiercest part of the interior battle will be between Baynes and Pinder. KP scores almost exclusively at the rim as the roller or on lightning drives. AB won’t be drawn out unless he can hit some jumpers, however, and Pinder is just 3/15 from three in NBL23. Baynes is hitting at 40 per cent from outside, but given Keanu has fouled out in three of his past five games for two losses, look for Banga to be banging inside early.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Keanu Pinder putting United in the spin cycle ??<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/GClhVm9cvy">pic.twitter.com/GClhVm9cvy</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1583031283990421504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Have the Brisbane Bullets turned the corner, or did they just bully the listless Hawks then pinch one from a wayward JackJumpers side?

Veteran point guard Jason Cadee think it’s the former, but he doesn’t really care how the wins come as his new-look team fits it’s pieces together.

“We had an off-season of guys who weren’t playing and were out for a period of time and they're starting to find a rhythm,” he said.

“You’ve just got to stick with it at times, if you look around teams are going places and getting beaten by 20, they roll up the next game and win by 15.

“There’s so many good teams in this comp, so if you can stick with it and string together wins like we have, you’ll be thereabouts at the end of the year.”

Cadee never had doubt about the team finding form, despite the 0-5 start, because the form was always there.

“I think we've had double-figure leads in every game but one, all year long, so we’re doing something right it’s just about sustaining it,” he said.

“The last four games we've probably actually played our best basketball. We lost one of those but we've played the right way and we’re trying to do the right things, we've started to figure it out. It’s starting to click a little bit which is nice.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tanner with the steal and slam!<br><br>Watch on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/AU67xJbSnZ">pic.twitter.com/AU67xJbSnZ</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1585567708917399554?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They’ve figured it out at the defensive end, allowing just 63ppg in the past three outings, after leaking 95.3ppg in their previous four.

The slowly increasing conditioning of the squad, combined with the return of giant shot-blocker Tyrell Harrison have both been important factors.

“That’s been the catalyst to this little bit of a run we've had. Guys are sitting down and guarding and finishing off plays and rebounding, we’re getting the results in terms of Ws for these games and guys are starting to see it,” coach James Duncan said.

“It’s a grind, it’s not easy, but if you want to get to where this team wants to get to, then we’ve got to defend.

“That’s the bottom line … everybody’s now diving into sitting down and guarding. Ty was out there at the five, switching out and guarding guards and doing a good job of it.”

Yet while the fitness of the veteran squad is improving, it’s not there yet, as their turnover-filled second half against Tasmania showed.

“The comp is very difficult, and if you slip up for three or four minutes that can determine the game,” Duncan said.

“We had 20 turnovers (against Tasmania) and that almost hurt us towards the end, so we’re starting to understand valuing the ball.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In case you forgot... Bul Kuol, reigning <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NBL</a> Rookie of the Year ?<br><br>Watch LIVE now on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/Gb2cRkSWkC">pic.twitter.com/Gb2cRkSWkC</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1588458292762017792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They’ll need to be much-improved in that area against the Taipans, who generate their high-octane running game through their energetic defence.

Against Melbourne, they forced 20 miscues and ran up a decisive 30-10 advantage in points from turnovers.

“For us that’s where the game’s won or lost,” coach Adam Forde said.

“The guys we recruited, they bring it every game, every day.”

The challenge for the Taipans is being less dependent on DJ Hogg when they can’t get into the open floor, something the Bullets have not allowed often during their winning streak.

While the Snakes’ athletes do appear better suited to transition basketball – which has seen them play two high-quality shoot-outs with the Kings – coach Forde believes “we haven’t even scratched the surface yet” when it comes to putting points on the board.

They welcome back Tahj McCall and Sam Waardenburg from injury, and Taipans fans will be hoping the FIBA break has given their team time to gel at the offensive end.

“Once these guys find their role within the group and feel 100 per cent comfortable with it and with each other, there’s nobody in the league who can stop us,” Forde said.

“We’re not in the top four in terms of offensive rating, and that’s what this team is built around.”