Club-By-Club: What If?

For NBL teams now out of the finals, there's always those questions about 'what could have been?'. 

As Sydney and New Zealand prepare for the Championship Series, eight other teams, their coaches and staff are sitting back watching with a keen eye - how do they get to that level? How do they reach the ultimate pinnacle?

As we continue the countdown to Game 1 on Friday, March 3, we're analysing what went right and what went wrong for each team in NBL23.

In the first edition of Pete Hooley's new series, we look at the 'what ifs' for each team. How could a single moment or decision have affected your side's Champion ambitions? 

RELATED: Your Club's Highs and Lows

What if the 36ers hadn’t managed to blow an 18-point lead against Cairns with six minutes to go in the game? Adelaide was well on their way to a fifth consecutive win to round out the calendar year, before an almighty collapse saw the entire energy from the team zapped in a matter of minutes. It couldn’t have come at a worse time for Adelaide as it looked as though everything was just starting to click. Ian Clark had arrived, Robert Franks and Antonious Cleveland were playing at an all-star level and Kai Sotto was showing promising signs as a starter. 

Yes, they managed to win the following game against the Hawks, but after that they lost five straight as the wheels completely fell off. 

What if the Brisbane Bullets had gone straight with Greg Vanderjagt after parting ways with James Duncan? Yes, his overall record wasn’t eye-catching once he took over, but you could sense a different vibe around the team that was contrastingly different from other moments in the season.

Further to that, the Bullets seemed to start using Aron Baynes more around the hoop and found some success that opened things up for Sobey and Johnson. In round 15 and 16, the Bullets won three straight games that included nearly denting the Phoenix post-season chances, basically eliminating Adelaide and another convincing win over the Hawks. It’s worth noting that those three wins did come off the back of four double-digit losses … one which was 49 points. 

What if the Taipans didn’t fall asleep on the inbound play against Sydney way back in round five? The game winner from Kouat Noi ripped the hearts out of Cairns, who would still end up winning the regular season series between the two teams 2-1.

Without taking into account what it would have meant to sweep a team, had the Snakes walked out of that game with a win, they very likely would have avoided playing Sydney until the Championship Series. Hindsight… it’s a wonderful thing.

You could also make the case of what if they didn’t fall apart in Adelaide later in the season as well? It hurts to look back on those missed chances, because Cairns was one of the best teams all season long and those little self-inflicted wounds ended up being quite costly. 

What if the Hawks managed to retain Duop Reath after last season? Yes, they lost Antonious Cleveland, Xavier Rathan-Mayes and Justinian Jessup as well, but what if they just managed to keep Reath?

Injuries aside, a starting lineup going into round one of Justin Robinson, Tyler Harvey, George King (later becoming Michael Frazier), Sam Froling and Duop Reath would have had potential to be one of the best starting groups in the league.

With Mangok Mathiang coming back off a near career-ending injury as well, the Hawks were exposed in the big man department far too often. Instead, Deng Deng was tasked with playing in the center position all season for the Hawks, and whilst he had a pretty strong year – it always felt they were missing that dominant inside presence outside of Froling, to help tick the scoreboard over and lock up defensively. 

What if Marcus Lee had been in a United uniform from the beginning of NBL23? It’s hard to imagine it, because without the horrific injury to Ariel Hukporti, Melbourne never would have looked around for a replacement big.

For the sake of the argument, let’s imagine Lee was here from day one. He ended up playing 17 games and averaged 8.8 points and 7.5 rebounds. He also had 1.6 blocks per game, which would rank second in the league only to his teammate Isaac Humphries. If you take out the first few games after he arrived to give him time to settle in and get adjusted, Lee was a dominant force and a major reason for Melbourne winning 10 of its last 13 games of the season. 

This piece has been a reflective journey asking questions about all teams, but for the Breakers, I’m looking forward instead. What if New Zealand are able to keep the same import trio and Will McDowell-White?

The dramatic rise of Breakers basketball from where they were last season has been nothing short of spectacular. It’s been a joy to see, not only from what the endured the past two seasons, but also the way they play the game when they’re at their best. Mody Maor has been a mastermind in putting this team together and the success quickly followed.

McDowell-White is one of the major free agents available this offseason and he showed why every team would want him, after his impressive second half of the season. He was surrounded All-NBL winners Barry Brown Jr, Dererk Pardon and the All-NBL calibre season from Jarrell Brantley. So the question has to be asked, what if they can run it back in NBL24 with the same core group of stars?

What if Corey Webster was inserted into the starting lineup from the beginning of the season? When Webster was announced for the Wildcats, everyone expected him to be the sixth man behind the group that was already put together.

In Perth’s first 12 games of action, Webster played 11 of those and averaged nine points as the Wildcats went 5-7 to begin NBL23. After being inserted into the starting group following the OT loss to Brisbane, Webster averaged 17.3 points across the remaining 18 games and shot it at almost 49 per cent from the floor.

It seemed as if his ability to get back to scoring the ball at a high level, took pressure off Brady Manek to then find a consistent groove and also allowed Bryce Cotton to catch his breath at times. The Wildcats won 11 of those games and found themselves in the Play-In tournament looking like a completely different team that began the season. 

What if the Phoenix starters could have stayed remotely healthy? It was the story of the season for South East Melbourne, a team that was riddled with significant injuries that began at the blitz.

Noting that they would still agree they had more than enough talent to finish the season better than they did, it’s interesting to look at the numbers in hindsight. In the regular season, the Phoenix played 15 games where their main starting five began the game. Of those 15, they won 11, where the team they put together in the off-season was able to show what they could do at full strength. Ryan Broekhoff and Gary Browne managed to play just 20 of the 29 games the Phoenix played and Trey Kell played 24. It wasn’t just the sheer number of games missed by key players, rather the timing of the injuries and the period at the start and middle of the season where two of them sat out at the same time. 

What if Derrick Walton Jr or DJ Vasiljevic managed to hit two or three more shots in their record breaking games? We haven’t seen a 50-point game since Chris Goulding did it in the 2014 season, where he played all 40 minutes and shot 20 of 33. Which is where my ‘what if?’ comes into play here.

Let’s start with Walton Jr’s 45-point performance against the Phoenix in the double overtime thriller. He played 40 minutes and shot 14-27, hitting massive shots in the clutch and put together one of the best individual stat-lines of the season. Looking back at that game, Walton Jr missed a handful of shots that he would consider easy, and should have been knocking on the door of the half century.

Now we get to DJ Vasiljevic’s shooting clinic, which also came against the Phoenix, but this time on their home floor. Vasiljevic had 42 points on 14-24 from the field, including 10 threes in just 30 minutes of action. Now on one hand I understand that the Kings had this game won very early on, but on the other hand, it takes something special to be in a groove where a 50-point game is even achievable. He was subbed out of the game with four minutes to go, but thankfully put back in so that he could knock down one last three to get to 40. He’d look back on that game and think he should have had 60… and he’s probably right. 

What if The Nest was twice as big? Tasmanian fans have launched an assault on the league’s home crowd power rankings ever since joining two seasons ago. A sell-out each and every home game just goes to show how passionate these supporters are about their club. More than that, it speaks volumes to the organisation for the way they have given back to the community who have welcomed them with open arms.

MyState Bank Arena is one of the best, if not the best environments we have around all professional sport in Australia, when you consider the passion and energy levels of the fans. The demand for tickets is only going to increase as this team keeps on finding ways to achieve success so early in their history. It might be time to let this nest grow.