SuperCoach NBL: Bounce back candidates

This article is part of the pre-blitz watchlist series by The Basketball Blokes. Be sure to read the other articles in the series that look at potential cash cows on our watchlist and the new import players that are on our watchlist heading into the NBL Blitz.  

An important part of SuperCoach NBL is identifying players that will outperform their starting price. While rookies and imports are somewhat of an unknown, identifying players that have shown a capacity to produce in the past gives us something tangible to lean on in the hopes that they may bounce back in NBL25.

The following article lists players that have shown an ability to be better SuperCoach performers than they were last season; and should be added to your pre-blitz watchlist.

United again! 

Marcus Lee (UTD) CTR $203,600

Marcus Lee has returned to Melbourne United. Unlike last time in NBL23, where he was brought in as a mid-season acquisition and came off the bench, Lee looks to have a clear run at the starting center position for Melbourne United.

Lee finished the NBL23 season strongly for United; and despite only averaging 23 minutes per game for that season, he played in excess of 25 minutes in his final six matches. Lee managed to average 24.88 for United, which was highlighted by a 22 point, 10 rebound game against Tasmania. Unsurprisingly, given this performance, he played last season with the Tasmania JackJumpers. 

Lee’s opportunity was significantly reduced at the JackJumpers last season. He only played in excess of 20 minutes on eight occasions. For those eight matches, he averaged 23 SuperCoach points per game.

This year we get the opportunity to select Lee at a discounted price based on his average of 16.7 last season, from only 16.5 minutes per game. Given the additional minutes that we are expecting, this would also allow for a greater chance of getting double-double bonus points. Lee is an excellent bounce back candidate and needs to be on your pre-blitz watchlist.      

Marcus Lee.

McVeigh’s minute men?

Majok Deng (TAS) FWD $142,100
Fabijan Krslovic (TAS) FWD $90,500

Jack McVeigh’s career trajectory has launched him all the way to the Houston Rockets.

Both Deng and Fabijan are candidates to step into the starting power forward position for Tasmania. Both of these players also fit the category as bounce back candidates.

Majok Deng had an injury interrupted season and is priced at an average of 11.7. When last given a decent opportunity in Cairns in NBL23, Deng averaged 21.71 SuperCoach points that season.

Krslovic has not shown the ceiling that Deng has with regards to SuperCoach scoring, consistently averaging around 11 SuperCoach points over the last few years before the 37 per cent drop in scoring he had last year.

However, having played around 10 minutes per game last season, Krslovic has a chance to double his minutes and SuperCoach starting price if he wins the starting role for Tasmania.

Majok Deng.

Price headed north?

Sam Waardenburg (CRN) FWD/CTR $225,600

Sam Waardenburg burned many SuperCoaches last season.

Waardenburg started the season well, averaging 26.4 SuperCoach points in his first five games. He would then only exceed a score of 26 SuperCoach points on two occasions of his remaining 20 games played. This was a difficult hold for many owners who hoped for a return to his early season form through the amazing Cairns mid-season schedule. While we are only getting Waardenburg at a six per cent discount compared to the season prior, Cairns Head Coach Adam Forde has built a roster that should see Sam play at his preferred power forward position.

Forde also described Sam’s game as being a stretch big making plays like a point guard.

Will Waardenburg show the form that saw him win the NBL’s inaugural next generation award? Or will it be a repeat of the week to week guessing game that we saw from the Cairns big man rotation last year? He is certainly one for the watchlist. 

Sam Waardenburg.

Watch them like a Hawk!

Will Hickey (ILL) GRD $106,000
Tyler Harvey (ILL) GRD $282,800

Hickey is priced based on his average of 8.7 SuperCoach points per game in NBL24 and qualifies as a bounce back candidate having averaged 11 SuperCoach points the season prior. 

A closer look at the game logs from last season shows that he actually averaged 5.57 points in his first 14 games and concluded the regular season averaging 16 SuperCoach points from his last six appearances. A factor in this was certainly the disappointing play of Justin Robinson; and no doubt the Hawks will be hoping for more reliable minutes from Trey Kell this season.

However, the element that is not factoring into Hickey’s starting price is his NBL post-season performance. We ran the numbers and found that Hickey averaged 25.6 SuperCoach points during those games.

Look to see if Hickey secures that third guard role in the Blitz.   

Another player that bounced back in the second half of the season under Coach Tatum is also a bounce back candidate here. Tyler Harvey is priced at 23.2 SuperCoach points to start the season. Harvey averaged 25 in NBL23 and a big 28.27 in NBL22. I mention the earlier season here because over a 15 game sample in the second half of last season, Harvey pushed that earlier average with 27.8 SuperCoach points per game.

Tyler was only going at 17.45 per game over his first 11 games last season which is why he is priced at a discount compared to his latter season form. The Hawks selected Kell as a better fit to play beside Harvey.

Let's see if he bounces back to the form of earlier seasons.

Will Hickey.

The old guard

Jason Cadee (ADL) GRD $119,500
Mitch McCarron (NZ) GRD $161,000
Sunday Dech (ADL) GRD $104,700

The Adelaide 36ers had a turbulent NBL24, which has carried on this off-season. When CJ Bruton was replaced by the now replaced Scott Ninnis, the old guard of McCarron (10.83 average under Ninnis), Cadee (7.87) and Dech (8.35) all saw significant reductions in their opportunities. Are they bounce back candidates for NBL25?

We can’t start with Mitch on our side due to the New Zealand schedule, but will he make us money? McCarron was averaging over 20 SuperCoach points per game for the first six games under CJ Bruton last season and we should get plenty of opportunity to watch him before his Round 5 price change, but we should start him on our watchlist in the Blitz. 

Sunday Dech was listed as a starter for the 36ers in Pete Hooley’s article as a point-of-attack defender to throw at the opposition's best guard. While we are high on Nick Marshall as a cash cow, if Dech can win the starting role he could certainly be primed to bounce back from last season. 

Last season the 36ers had Vasiljevic, McCarron, Kell, Cadee and Flowers in their guard rotation. Cadee has a far clearer look at minutes this season, especially if the 36ers will utilise Dech as a small forward. Cadee was down 53 per cent on his output from the season prior, he may not get all of that back, but we see him improving as potentially the first guard off the bench for Adelaide. 

Sunday Dech.

Keanu comeback?

Keanu Pinder (PER) FWD/CTR $347,600

Pinder may be listed as the 2nd most expensive center eligible player in the game, however, last season his output was 15 per cent down when compared to his year with the Cairns Taipans the season prior.

Pinder started last season well, having only scored fewer than 23 SuperCoach points on one occasion in his first 10 games. This was in stark contrast to his close to the season where he scored under 21 SuperCoach four times in his last seven games.

Pinder averaged over 33 SuperCoach points when playing 29 minutes per game for Cairns. He played under 24 minutes per game for Perth last season and was the fourth best player in points per minute, in getting to his 28.5 average. These points per minute numbers demonstrate that Pinder can still dominate when given the opportunity.

Perth have gone with a similar line-up of big men this season, so we will be keen to see if Keanu can increase his time on court in NBL25.

Keanu Pinder.

Fits like a glove?

Angus Glover (SEM) GRD $110,500

We think that Glover is in Sixth Man Of The Year contention this season, although we thought that would be a chance last season after re-signing with the Kings after his Championship heroics under Chase Buford.

Glover’s SuperCoach output actually declined nearly 30 per cent last season, making him an excellent bounce back candidate with his change of scenery to South East Melbourne. He averaged 21.8 in that Grand Final series against the tough Breakers side in under 17 minutes per game. Could we see Glover averaging close to 20 minutes per game for the Phoenix? He is on our watchlist.

Angus Glover.