Stat Chat: Round 4 (What's Hot & What's Not)

Statistics ... whether you love them or hate them, stats play a huge part in sport.

Whether it's when recruiting a player, how teams prepare, how a starting five is setup, or just about any facet of the game, numbers are crunched and relied upon as fact. 

This year, 2018 NBL Champion and expert commentator Pete Hooley will be our resident stats man on NBL.com.au, providing a rundown of all the key numbers from the weekend's games. 

Keep an eye out after every round for the latest edition of 'Stat Chat'. 

What’s hot – 13
The lowest score of any Adelaide starter in their blockbuster matchup against the Kings was 13 from Robert Franks. If your starters are collectively putting up these sorts of numbers, chances are that you’ll be winning a lot of games. The 36ers are starting to put it all together and maybe CJ Bruton has the perfect pieces to a championship puzzle.

What’s not – 58
The Kings piled on 58 points in the paint against the 36ers on Friday night. Adelaide did well to hold Sydney to just six-of-28 from the three, but that poses the question that with that sort of dominance inside, if the Kings have a semi decent night shooting from outside, how does that score look?

Robert Franks. 

What’s hot – 31
The Bullets are on the board and it’s not surpising that it came on the back of pure dominance from Baynes, who put up a combined 31 points and rebounds against the Hawks. Big Banger was too big and strong for any matchup all night, and it looked as if the Bullets found a new method to start games off in a positive fashion. Feed the beast!

What’s not – 1
Yes, that was the final margin of defeat for the Bullets against the Phoenix, but it was also their total number of steals in that game. Brisbane once again led by double-figures in a game and went on to lose one they let get away. They sent the Phoenix to the line 26 times and compounded that with 17 turnovers too.

Aron Baynes.

What’s hot – 22-0
After trailing by 14 points in the third quarter, the Taipans hit back with a dominant 22-0 run against Melbourne United to lead them to a big win at John Cain Arena. That win secured the best road record start to a season for Cairns since 2015. The Taipans have shown numerous times now that when the flick a switch and light it up, they usually put games to bed.

What’s not – 3
After holding the Breakers to just five points in the opening 10 minutes, Cairns went on to lose every following quarter and eventually the game, in one of the craziest comebacks you’ll see for some time. Did New Zealand really turn it around or did Cairns let one slip? Either way, the Snakes lost a chance to stay on top of the NBL ladder and will hope that loss doesn’t come back to bite them (no pun intended).

Bul Kuol.

What’s hot – 1
This may sound brutal, but the biggest positive of Round 4 for the Hawks was that they only had to play one game. Their season was turned upside down with the injury to their key signing Justin Robinson, so the least amount of games they can play before they get Peyton Siva in uniform, the better. There is still plenty of talent on the Hawks roster, but they need Siva to lead and help take pressure of the other players as soon as possible.

What’s not – 3
It was anything but a pretty outcome for Hawks fans who sat through the teams third lowest score ever in the Win Entertainment Center. The Hawks highest scoring quarter was just 16 points in the second term, which led them to falling by 26 to a winless Brisbane team. The team shooting 31% from the field, 20% from three and 42% from the freethrow line is unlikely to win them any games, regardless of who is in uniform.

George King.

What’s hot – 10,000+
In a rough round four for Melbourne United, there was nothing rough about the turnout at John Cain Arena on Sunday for the club's grassroots game. It was the first sell-out crowd at the venue since the pre pandemic life of 2020 and it was a fascinating sight to see the turnout and support.

What’s not – 4
After back-to-defeats at home, United have lost four consecutive games at John Cain Arena for the first time ever. Having shown flashes of brilliance early in both games against the Taipans and Kings, Melbourne was overpowered in the second half and sent home wondering exactly what is going on. After Keanu Pinder’s career night, the Kings did it by committee, putting up 87 points with no individual player scoring over 14 points. History has taught us that Vickerman coached teams usually find ways to clamp down on defence when they’re struggling to score. However, that has been far from the case to start NBL23.

The pressure is on Melbourne United.

What’s hot – 1
After putting up the equal lowest scoring quarter of any team in NBL history, the Breakers went on to win the game against Cairns, to have them as the only team to score five points after 10 minutes and go on to win. That could be a season-defining and character building moment for a Breakers outfit who have shown some signs of toughness and brilliance to begin NBL23. And maybe that bounce back from their loss earlier the round, will have them ready to take the next step.

What’s not – 0
The Breakers never led in their big home loss to the Phoenix to open the round. After being down by as many as 29, they were blown out of the water in the first quarter and never really gathered enough momentum to turn things around like they did two days later. Izayah Le’Afa shot 3-17 from the field in one of those nights that just summed it all up for New Zealand. 

Breakers coach Mody Maor. 

What’s hot – 2
The best part about Round 4 for the Wildcats is that they have two games this weekend to bounce back from one of their worst performances for some time. It was one of those games where you’re likely to flush the game tape and move on, simply because there was next to zero positives to come from their 31-point loss to Tasmania. Perth will be hungry to get back on the floor in front of the Red Army and try to turn things around.

What’s not – 6
The Wildcats' loss was highlighted by the fact they lost nearly every major statistical category on the night to the JackJumpers. Out of eight stats, the Wildcats lost six of them quite convincingly, including a 15 per cent FG differential and 10 less made threes. Call it a hot night for Tasmania, yes, however the Wildcats have more than enough weapons to stay in games a lot longer than they did on Saturday night.

Perth Wildcats coach John Rillie. 

What’s hot – 38
What better way to celebrate your 100^th game birthday than with your highest ever scoring quarter in the NBL. The Phoenix put up 38 points to open the game against the Breakers, to send shockwaves through the league about how potent this unit could be now that everyone is healthy. All Simon Mitchell wanted was for the Phoenix to keep the ship afloat until reinforcements arrived. Well, now they’re here. So are the Phoenix back?

What’s not – 27.6
It mattered very little in the end but the Phoenix shot just 27.6% from three in their one point win against the Bullets. They’re three starting guards shot just three-of-16 from deep and were probably thankful that Mitch Creek decided to have one of his MVP-calibre performances to lead them to a second win of the round. With the presence of their twin towers and Creek’s ability to make plays, knocking down three’s will be crucial for their success.

South East Melbourne Phoenix coach Simon Mitchell. 

What’s hot – 16
The Kings just keep on rolling on the road and chalking up win after win. The record continues to grow with them recording their 16^th straight road win in a second dismantling of United on their home floor. Perhaps the most impressive part of the 87 points they scored was that no single player had more than 14, which speaks to their incredible depth and the game plan that Buford is mastering.

What’s not – 2
Back-to-back home losses for the Kings after they fell to the 36ers in an exciting battle on Friday night. What could potentially be a Grand Final preview lived up to all expectations and produced some big performances. What has been a common cold stat in this piece for the Kings is their struggles from the free throw line. They shot eight-of-15 in this game and ended up going down by just four? How worrying should their free throw dilemma be?

Justin Simon.

What’s hot – 2
For the first time in their history, the JackJumpers had two players have a double-double in the same game. Milton Doyle and Josh Magette led an incredible team performance in front of the Ant army who were in full voice. A week after scoring 97 points away, the JackJumpers produced a franchise-best 103 in their destruction of Perth. Tasmania was a half away from falling to 0-4 and now sit at 4-3 and looking mighty tough to beat. Make no mistake, the Jackies are back in business.

What’s not – 1
The only thing that wasn’t hot on this night for the JJ’s was the fact that youngster Walter Brown didn’t get a shot up and a chance to hit the scoresheet in his 2 minutes of playing time. All 12 other players who hit the floor scored in their record breaking night, which makes it all the more disappointing that they couldn’t get Brown a single field goal attempt in his 169 seconds. 

Josh Magette.