R9 Preview: Brisbane Bullets vs SE Melbourne Phoenix

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 29 January 2022

Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ


Who won last time?
Brisbane 100 (Sobey 18, Franks 17, Drmic 14) d South East Melbourne 84 (Creek 19, Munford 17, Adnam 13, Broekhoff 13) - Round 7, Nissan Arena, Brisbane

For South East Melbourne, the less said about this game the better, coming off a 28-day COVID-enforced break, the Phoenix were a shadow of their former selves, falling 25 points behind after 10 minutes. The Bullets were simply brilliant in the opening half, Lamar Patterson, Nathan Sobey and Robert Franks combining for 25 points and 10 dimes. South East Melbourne fought hard in the second half to reduce the gap, but it simply wasn’t their day.


What happened last start?

Against Cairns in Gippsland, when Mitch Creek was able to tap the ball with neither of his feet in court to set up a Ryan Broekhoff triple amidst a game-defining run, the Phoenix must have known that was their day. Having the Taipans cough the ball up 23 times was additional good fortune, but credit must also go to South East Melbourne’s relentless pressure defence, which was at a far higher intensity than last time they were in Brisbane.

The Bullets certainly didn’t lack intensity in their gripping home loss to Melbourne, but they were missing poise against United’s physicality in the second quarter and early in the fourth. Big Liu and Co were incredible on the offensive boards as they starved Melbourne of running opportunities, but at key moments they didn’t take care of the d-boards and were forced to walk it up against United’s handcuff-like defence, and that proved decisive.


Who’s in form?

Mitch Creek – How about 26 points, eight rebounds and seven steals? That was Creek’s statline against the Snakes, dominating the passing lanes on defence and transition on offence, as he scored or assisted on 18 points in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Creek has scored 19 points or better in six of his seven outings, and importantly shot 65 per cent from the field and 2/5 from the arc on Tuesday, after going at 41 per cent and 3/11 in his previous two.

Lamar Patterson – Few players have absorbed Melbourne’s physicality and made one-on-one plays as the game wears on, but Lamarvellous is a star. He scored 12 second-half points – mostly from the mid-post with 16 of his 21 coming from the paint or foul line – to pick up the slack after Brisbane’s offence had stagnated. In Round 7, the Phoenix paid the bulky import plenty of attention from tip, and he dished four dimes in the opening four minutes.

https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1486496886802370563


Who needs to be?

Robert Franks – South East Melbourne didn’t get Creek involved nearly enough in Round 7, so Franks had better be ready to defend early and often. Forty of Frank’s past 69 field-goal attempts have been from the arc, but he must attack the rim to make Creek work and exploit Qi’s absence.

Ryan Broekhoff & Cam Gliddon – The twin bombers fired in 7/12 from range against Cairns, after landing just 3/21 in the previous three games. A repeat of that will make it hard for Brisbane to give effective help on Creek, Xavier Munford and Brandon Ashley on the drive.


Who’s statting up?

 - In five wins, the Phoenix force 16.4 opposition cough-ups and lead points from turnovers by a whopping 116-55. In two defeats, they have been outscored 30-14 on PFTs

 - In South East Melbourne victories they average +13.2 on points in the paint, allowing just 28.4ppg from the key. In two losses they average -18 and leak 46ppg inside

 - Brisbane pulled in 23 offensive rebounds against United (46% of available o-boards) and scored 22 second chance points. Prior to that, Melbourne had given up just 62 o-boards in eight contests (7.8 per game)

 - In the decisive second quarter, Brisbane allowed United to grab 10 offensive rebounds from 13 misses. In the other three periods the Bullets gave up only five o-boards from 26 misses


Who’s matching up?

Nathan Sobey v Xavier Munford – Sobey went 6/16 against Melbourne, including missing a tough game-tying shot at the rim. That’s the seventh time in nine games he has shot below 40 per cent, something he did just nine times in 36 games in NBL21.

Munford was 22/39 in his first three NBL games but just 29 per cent since, including 9/26 on two-pointers. Both teams rely on their athletic guards to make plays late-clock, and whichever one can find touch and find teammates the most could determine this contest.

https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1486209121997438977


Who’s talking the talk?

It wasn’t pretty for South East Melbourne when they travelled to Nissan Arena two weeks ago.

“We looked like we were stuck in mud, we rotated pretty quickly and the guys who came in looked like they were stuck in mud too,” coach Simon Mitchell said.

“You could even see it a little bit in us in the second half where we were moving a little bit better, I’d like to think that in our next game we’ll be moving a lot better.”

The next game in Tasmania was a small improvement, coming alive in the second half to get past the JackJumpers in a dour affair.

Come Round 9, however, and the Phoenix looked close to their best.

“Just the energy, I think our defence has been really solid the last two games,” Mitchell said.

“Our pressure onto the ball has been really good, we've been able to turn teams over and run off that.

“I thought that was the key for us tonight, not just turning them over but actually getting possession and pushing at pace and getting good looks out of it.”

Mitch Creek was the key to that, pinching seven steals and making the Taipans pay time and again with his high-speed transition attacks.

https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1486544797699489798


“He’s been amazing,” Mitchell said.

“He seems to have a bit more zest than last year, he seems to have fallen back in love with the game, which I think’s important.

“He’s a great leader of this ballclub, he’s a great locker room presence, a great instructor to his teammates, I think his name could go with those three letters (MVP) at this point of the season, but it’s a long way to go.”

Creek has taken to his new partner in crime, Brandon Ashley, with enthusiasm, the Bash Brothers giving the Phoenix a completely different frontcourt approach that could be important against Sobey and Patterson.

“It allowed us to be a bit more aggressive with pick-and-rolls,” Mitchell said.

“I thought even getting up the floor we’re a little bit more mobile and we were able to turn them over and I think Brandon was a big part of that.”

Creek has been a big part of getting Ashley up to speed quickly.

“I'm very happy to be back in the NBL and I feel like this team’s style of play, the scheme that we run is a perfect fit for me and I believe I'm a perfect fit for them as well,” Ashley said.

“He’s definitely taken me in and helped me out a tonne, any time that I'm unsure where I need to be or what it is I'm doing, even the moments where I feel like I'm not doing well, he’s there to pick me up and help me out.”

https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1485923292665970691


With Qi again sidelined, but Tyrell Harrison back for the Bullets, it will make for an intriguing chess battle with both teams’ frontcourt pieces, but expect South East Melbourne to go for speed and back their athleticism to cover the interior.

Without Harrison against Melbourne, James Duncan’s men gave up critical offensive rebounds at key points, and allowed 60 per cent shooting inside the paint.

It wasted what was a big effort at the defensive end and on the o-boards against the champs.

“There were a few stretches where we played pretty good defence and we just couldn’t finish off possessions by d-rebounding,” Duncan said.

“I think you give a team like that more opportunities to put the ball in the basket they will eventually make you pay, which they did.

“There’s a lot of good things we can take from this game, but from me the message to the group is we've been processing through the course of the season but we just haven't been able to be consistent, which is clear, and that’s our biggest hurdle.”