R4 Preview: Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats

Sunday, February 7, 2021

Perth are still fuming after last week's fumble against the Phoenix, but they need more help for Bryce Cotton as they now face Chris Goulding, Jock Landale and a star-studded Melbourne United.

When: 5pm (AEDT), Sunday 7 February

Where: Bendigo Basketball Stadium

Broadcast: SBS Viceland; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time

Melbourne 77 (Goulding 17, Lual-Acuil 15, McCarron 12) d Perth 67 (Cotton 23, Kay 21), Round 18, 2019/20, Melbourne Arena

In a game that will never be used as an NBL promotional video, United man-handled a Perth team backing up from a clash with NZ across the Nullarbor, with both teams combining to shoot 38 per cent and commit 30 turnovers to 25 assists. Nick Kay and Mitch McCarron showed their class by producing efficient games through the rugby-like physicality, but ultimately it was Melbourne’s 24-9 opening-quarter run and their defensive rebounding that proved decisive.

The now

That was a breakthrough performance for the 2020 United side, who had allowed 97.8ppg in their previous five games before shutting down the Cats. They haven’t waited 18 rounds to get their defence going this year, however, ranking as the second-best defensive team in the league behind the Hawks and generating match-winning runs from their D.

Perhaps their biggest concern is Friday’s injury to Shea Ili, who along with McCarron would have been the frontline in the war on Cotton, who tortured a SE Melbourne defence built around stopping him. The challenge for Perth coach Trevor Gleeson is stopping United’s paint attacks after his side leaked 64 points in the paint at 70 per cent to the Phoenix.

The stats

- Cotton has averaged 29.5ppg at 50 per cent and 9 made free throws. His teammates have averaged 59 points at 41 per cent and 8 foul shots

- Perth are grabbing 38 per cent of available boards at their offensive end, and have not dipped below 30 per cent in the past decade. Last meeting with Melbourne they managed just 19 per cent

- Melbourne lead points from turnovers 71-42 in their four games to date

- United have given up a higher opposition score (64, 85, 90 and 96 points) and field-goal percentage (34, 43, 46 and 49%) in each subsequent game this season

The key men

Bryce Cotton – Melbourne like to relentlessly get hands on Cotton and there is good reason for that, in the Wildcats’ past seven wins over Melbourne he has averaged 22.9 points at 44 per cent and 4.9 assists, while in his past four losses those numbers slump to 15.4ppg at 35 per cent and 2.4 assists. Of course, most of those quiet nights have occurred in Melbourne where the noise of affirmation from the home crowd allows extra physicality, and they’ll be hoping the Bendigo faithful provide a similar advantage for McCarron and Co.

Jock Landale – One of the undersold but amazing parts of Nick Kay’s game is ability to defend perimeter big men and still clean the defensive glass. Perth would certainly love that on board against Landale, who went 4-of-8 from range in Brisbane and 2-of-4 in Cairns. John Mooney is the obvious match-up for the 211cm Boomer, but given he is the Cats’ leading defensive rebounder, can he get both jobs done? At the other end, can Landale match Mooney’s energy, which is delivering a league-best 6 o-boards per night?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ALWAYS ? FOLLOW ? YOUR ? SHOT<br><br>John Mooney with the put back on his own shot from distance ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PerthWildcats</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/jmoon32?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jmoon32</a> <a href="https://t.co/wWSEAaowVj">pic.twitter.com/wWSEAaowVj</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1353234988989173760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes

Everyone in the Hungry Jack’s NBL knows about Jock Landale’s prediction that Melbourne United could go undefeated this season.

Well, so far he’s right, and when given the chance to water down his comments after Friday’s tough loss in Brisbane he was having none of it.

“I'm going to keep rolling with it,” he said.

“I feel as though we've been in some close contests so far but that’s because we've been playing one game a week as opposed to everyone else having two or three games a week.

“I've got all the confidence in the guys and we've spoken about it, it’s a mindset coming into every game, if you go into a game thinking you're going to win 70 per cent of the battle is already done.

“We’re such a talented group and so deep that we can roll out guys 20 minutes a night, and it really is just a mindset coming into every game that we shouldn’t be beaten and there are no nights off, we’re going to get everyone’s best and we need to give ours.

“I think you’ll start to see us play some really good basketball in coming weeks as we start to double down on games each week and playing multiple games.”

The first of those challenges comes on Sunday, against a Perth team that has been stewing on their one-point loss to the Phoenix nine days ago.

While some observers have criticised Melbourne for their high level of rotations, the reality is all the best teams in FIBA-style leagues manage their stars’ minutes so they can play at high intensity at both ends throughout the game and deliver down the stretch.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr">???<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StandWithUs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StandWithUs</a> <a href="https://t.co/FcEQ73kEwW">pic.twitter.com/FcEQ73kEwW</a></p>— Melbourne United (@MelbUnitedHQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnitedHQ/status/1357635291410964483?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Playing 10 guys and everybody playing and contributing is something we still see as a strength of this group,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

“People are going to accept as a real high-level guy playing under 28 minutes, and if we get the effort and energy we need, those guys shouldn’t be able to play too much more than that.”

Of course, that was tested on Friday night with Shea Ili going down early and Jo Lual-Acuil suffering a minor injury.

It's the absence of Ili that shapes as critical in the battle to stop Cotton, and United will need others to step up against arguably the NBL’s second-greatest offensive player of all time.

“Seeing Shea Ili go down early, we knew it was going to be a challenge, he’s been so good for us, he’s one of the guys you say has some semblance of a chance of containing Nathan Sobey because he’s playing at such a high level right now,” Vickerman said.

“To see others then have to step up, which Yudai Baba got a job there for a while to guard Sobey and he did a good job, Mitch McCarron that was a hell of a load I put on him today without Shea around.”

McCarron will lead the charge on Cotton, but in his favour is a rejuvenated Scotty Hopson, who carried a large chunk of the playmaking responsibilities in the second half in Brisbane to ease McCarron’s load.

“Scotty Hopson needed something like that to happen for him today,” Vickerman said.

“He grabbed it in that second half and he looked like the Scotty Hopson that played in this league last year. He looked comfortable, hard to guard and confident, so it was nice to see him play basketball like that and have fun.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hopson +1!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StandWithUs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StandWithUs</a> <a href="https://t.co/UPPRxDJxFJ">pic.twitter.com/UPPRxDJxFJ</a></p>— Melbourne United (@MelbUnitedHQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnitedHQ/status/1357633428863078400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So while undermanned, United still have an impressive variety of offensive contributors, three of the NBL’s best finishers in Hopson, Chris Goulding and Jock Landale, and the likes of McCarron, Dave Barlow, Yudai Baba and Jack White who can feed off their star scorers.

It means the Wildcats will need to make significant improvements on their defensive performance last round, where SE Melbourne picked Perth apart on the ball-screen and scored at will inside.

“Really disappointed with our effort on the defensive end,” coach Trevor Gleeson said.

“I think Sykes was going to his right hand all night, that was in the scout, we weren’t able to do that, our energy levels weren’t up at the start of the game and the start of the quarters where we needed to be.”

That left the Cats taking the ball out of the net repeatedly, and Bryce Cotton left to make play after play against set defences, something he managed that night but is particularly difficult against Melbourne.

“It’s probably too big of a hole that we keep throwing the ball to Bryce, I was disappointed with our teamwork and creating scoring opportunities for everybody,” Gleeson said.

“Bryce can’t keep carrying everybody in his back every night, we've got to have input from everybody on the team.”