R20 Preview: SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers

Sunday, April 17, 2022

Josh Adams and Tasmania are still in the playoff hunt, can they take care of Mitch Creek and the Phoenix, who need a mathematical miracle to return to the post-season.

When: 1pm (AEST), Sunday 17 April, 2022

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; 10 Peach; 10 Play; Sky Sports NZ

Who won the last time?
South East Melbourne 83 (Broekhoff 18, Creek 15, Adnam 13) d Tasmania 71 (Adams 23, Magette 10) – Round 11, John Cain Arena, Melbourne

When the JackJumpers led by five shortly before half-time things looked good for the visitors, but they managed just 34 points in the final 22 minutes as only Josh Adams managed to crack the tough Phoenix interior. Ryan Broekhoff was the star for South East Melbourne, finishing with 18 points on 10/10 at the foul line, eight boards and five steals.

What happened last start?

It’s been a case of no Broekhoff, no dice for Simon Mitchell’s men, who were 11-6 and tight defensively before their small forward’s injury, but have been 2-6 since. They broke a run of seven losses from eight games by downing New Zealand in Bendigo – despite giving up 52 per cent from the floor – but it will take three huge wins and two Perth losses for them to progress.

The JackJumpers are one game and significant percentage behind the Wildcats thanks to a tense win over the Breakers on Friday where, ultimately, the ability of Josh Adams to exploit switching defences on penetration and pull-ups delivered the W. Now they must topple the Phoenix – the only team they’ve yet to conquer – to stay anything more than a mathematical chance.

Who’s in form?

Xavier Munford – X turned on a masterpiece against New Zealand with 25 points at 58 per cent, eight assists, five rebounds and four steals, with the Phoenix +21 in his 32 minutes and -11 in the other eight. Munford has scored 20-plus in six of his past eight games, but in his lone meeting with Tasmania he managed just two – he’ll be keen to rectify that on Sunday.

Josh Adams – JA was back to his aggressive best on Friday, burning New Zealand for 20 points from ‘ones and twos’. He’s averaged 20.5ppg shooting 56 per cent on twos in his past four games, and given the JackJumpers have been unable to score inside against Zhou Qi and Co – Adams has been 6/18 inside against South East Melbourne – they need him finishing strong at the rim.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It's Josh Adams' Apple Isle and we're just playing in it.<br><br>Clutch play down the stretch for the <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JackJumpers</a> star. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/TFOta0dbvz">pic.twitter.com/TFOta0dbvz</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1514924368010231814?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who needs to be?

Kyle Adnam – The numbers aren’t pretty for Wild Kyle, his first 12 games delivering 11.8ppg at 38 per cent from range as he guided the Phoenix to nine wins, while his next 10 have produced just 5.9ppg at 26 per cent. His leadership was a key in two grinding wins over the JJs, averaging 13 points and five dimes, and Simon Mitchell would love a three-peat.

Jock Perry – Tassie’s centre spot has been done by committee sans Will Magnay, and Perry might be the chairman this week against the towering Qi, who has averaged a remarkable 17.0ppg at 72 per cent, 7.5 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 23 minutes per game in his past six contests. The JJs use Perry to stretch big men to the arc, so they’ll be hoping he’s on target.

Who’s statting up?

- Prior to Broekhoff’s injury game, the Phoenix were conceding 83.2 points at 43 per cent from the field. Since then they’ve given up 91.9ppg at 49 per cent

- The JackJumpers have averaged just 29 points from two-point baskets against South East Melbourne at a wayward 38 per cent. Against all other teams they’ve scored 39.3 points from twos at 47 per cent

- Tasmania average 67ppg against the Phoenix at 35 per cent from the field, 13 turnovers and just 6.5 o-boards from their 44.5 misses. No other team restricts the JJs better in all those categories

- South East Melbourne have been outscored by 56 points in Mitch Creek’s 135 minutes on the bench this season. They are 20.7 points per 40 minutes better off with Creek on the floor

Who’s matching up?

Mitch Creek v Jack McVeigh – Two former Adelaide buddies going head-to-head, and both are incredibly valuable to their teams. Only Bryce Cotton is more valuable than Creek in the NBL’s on-off differential stakes, while the JackJumpers discovering how to best use McVeigh offensively was the catalyst for their surge from a sorry 2-6 start to 13-5 ever since.

For South East Melbourne, the key is to get Creek attacking the rim early and often, given they are 8-2 when Mitch scores 14 points or more two-point range, and 6-2 when he shoots above 50 per cent from the field. The good news for Tasmania is they’ve held him to 11ppg from twos and 42 per cent from the field, the bad news is Creek has been +19 across two SEM wins.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ummm... YES ? with that block ?? Creek bucket! <br><br>? Tune in live and free on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAU</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Kayosports</a> Freebies <a href="https://t.co/aQCQCe4b5s">pic.twitter.com/aQCQCe4b5s</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1513005636304646145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s talking the talk?

Want an insight into why the JackJumpers have been so relentless, so undeterred and so consistent this season? Look at Jarrad Weeks’ reaction to their tight win over New Zealand.

“I think we’re really good when we stick to our values, we've put a lot of work into it through the year and tonight for us wasn’t good enough for a lot of those parts,” he said.

“We came up short on a lot of our goals we had set before the game.”

Weeks added that pinching the W was “was pretty big” for a team still in the finals hunt, and for coach Scott Roth it was another tick for his team’s enormous character as they head into a must-win clash with the Phoenix.

“Tonight was a great credit to them to just eke out a game that was very difficult,” Roth said.

“I'm just proud of the way these guys have performed, it’s been incredible.

“The last X amount of weeks have just been unbelievable... They just found a way to make the right plays at the right time, pull together and fight and scrap and that’s all we ask of them.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">MAGETTE ABOUT IT.<a href="https://twitter.com/joshmagette?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@joshmagette</a> with a big bucket from deep.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/v91Y7OVG2r">pic.twitter.com/v91Y7OVG2r</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1514923129247731713?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It’s been quite the opposite for Phoenix coach Simon Mitchell, who has seen a lack of on-court leadership cost his team close game after close game this season.

Nine of their 10 losses since the start of February have been by single-figure margins, and after leading the Breakers by 23 midway through the fourth term last Sunday, they let that slide back into 10 by the final hooter.

“It’s another aspect of the game we've struggled with and that we continue to work on. We want to see some results from it,” he said.

“We've got to be able to transport ourselves into a position where we’re 12 points up, we’re playing Melbourne United, there’s three-and-a-half minutes to play and we've got to come out and execute on every play.

“That’s where we've got to be able to transport ourselves, we weren’t able to do it tonight and that’s disappointing. It’s a lost opportunity to be better, it’s a lost opportunity for this team to close out a season in the right manner.

“And god forbid if someone ahead of us falls over really badly and we were able to equal the record with them, and we don’t get in because we didn’t win by enough today, that’s another aspect as well.”

Mitchell was relieved with the win, and pleased to see some much-needed improvement in key areas.

“There are certain aspects of the game we've been horrible at for a little while, go back to the last two games, we’re giving up 21 points off turnovers both games, we reduced that a little bit today so that was good,” he said.

“I think we gave 25 points up in our last game off o-boards, we had a similar sort of issue with Cairns as well, so giving up 46 points off stuff you can control, you’re putting yourself way back.

“This afternoon we were able to rectify those aspects a little bit and guys played some good basketball. It’s good to get a win, we needed it.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? <a href="https://twitter.com/xaviermunford?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@xaviermunford</a> was unstoppable against the Breakers. ?<br><br>? for Sunday ?? <a href="https://t.co/xDF5NdgYT7">https://t.co/xDF5NdgYT7</a> <a href="https://t.co/3faDQAs0Mc">pic.twitter.com/3faDQAs0Mc</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1513684692712579073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The reality is the Breakers rank dead last in offensive rebounding and mid-table at forcing turnovers, where Tassie lead the league in opposition turnover percentage and put a stronger emphasis on the o-boards.

However, the Phoenix have Zhou Qi inside, and if they can withstand the JackJumpers’ pressure and get the ball inside, it’s going to open up scoring opportunities for Qi and his teammates.

It will be an intriguing battle, the Phoenix feeding their big man inside, and Tassie putting him in countless ball-screen situations and looking to create open threes.

“I thought Zhou particularly was great,” Mitchell said after he burned NZ for 22 points.

“We ask a lot of him, he’s come over to Australia to develop his game. Watching back our New Zealand games during the week, he just didn’t command the ball early in the season.

“He was trying to find himself defensively, we were running different kinds of coverages for him to find where he was comfort levels were.

“To see where he is now, he’s a dominant low-post force in our league and that’s not the player we had earlier in the season, so a great job by him to become that guy.

“He does spend a lot of energy out there on the pick-and-rolls, so we've got to tip our hat when he plays like that.”