R20 Preview: Perth Wildcats v Sydney Kings

When: 9.30pm (AEST), Thursday 27 May

Where: RAC Arena, Perth

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Perth 73 (Cotton 23, Mooney 21, Blanchfield 10) d Sydney 69 (Ware 20, Martin 16, Louzada 13) – Round 13, Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

The Wildcats and Kings played one another three times in the space of 12 days going back to the end of March and start of April, but the last of those Grand Final rematches was now way back on April 8 when the 'Cats score a four-point win in Sydney.

Perth has actually won all four meetings between the two teams this season going back to a 113-106 triumph at the NBL Cup before 89-65 and 73-69 victories in Sydney, and a 95-89 win in the only meeting between them at RAC Arena so far in #NBL21.

That last meeting was when the Wildcats won to complete a nine-game winning streak in yet another contest full of passion and tension – if not necessarily sparkling offensive output from either team in the second half.

It was the end result that mattered and it was the Wildcats that won a fourth game over the Kings this season as defending champions which is still a fact that rankles those involved with Sydney. Those frustrations are only growing within the Kings following another loss to the Wildcats on Thursday night on their home floor in a game that they will feel frustrated to have dropped.

The Kings had all the momentum to start the fourth quarter with seven quick Didi Louzada points to see them lead by four. They were still four up minutes later but the Wildcats would finish on a 13-5 run to claim the four-point win. Jarell Martin had a good look at tying scores on an open three, but on a night where neither team shot well, it was perhaps fitting it was an air ball and the Wildcats won by four to make it nine wins on the trot.

Bryce Cotton and John Mooney did prove match winners again for Perth but they did struggle in the second half to only combine for 14 points on 6/19 shooting. But they made plays when it mattered with Cotton finishing with 23 points and six assists, and Mooney 21 points and 10 rebounds.

Todd Blanchfield was another to struggle shooting for Perth going just 3/10 from the field and 2/8 from deep but he still had 10 points and four steals while Mitch Norton had seven points and four rebounds, and Clint Steindl seven points.

Shooting 27/71 from the floor, 6/34 from deep and having 15 turnovers wouldn’t usually be Sydney's recipe for success, but Perth's numbers were similar to give them a sniff still of that elusive win over Perth.

Jarell Martin threatened to be a match-winner but foul trouble hindered his night holding him to just 18 minutes. He still had 16 points and nine rebounds. Casper Ware top-scored with 20 points on 5/17 shooting while Didi Louzada scored 13 points and Tom Vodanovich 10.

As tough as the loss was to take, the news of an Achilles injury to Rookie of the Year fancy DJ Vasiljevic was even worse.

The now

The Wildcats are now getting used to life without Bryce Cotton and working on those rotations and finding out where the slack can be picked up begins Thursday night while the Kings just simply need to win.

Perth is secure in a top two finish currently holding a 24-9 record but replacing Melbourne United in first place now has become all that harder considering that superstar dual MVP and triple championship Bryce Cotton is out for the rest of the regular season, and likely the entire playoff run having undergone surgery on a haematoma in his left quadricep.

That makes Thursday's game important as they now know the full situation with the superstar so they need to work out how to play, and win, knowing he's not returning starting against the Kings before their final two regular season games away to Illawarra and at home to Melbourne.

Meanwhile, the Kings remain on the outside of the top four looking in on a playoff position despite a crucial win in New Plymouth against the New Zealand Breakers on Saturday.

That result improved the Kings to a 16-16 record on the season to be hot on the heels of the fourth placed Illawarra Hawks who sit on a 17-15 record with both teams having four games of the season remaining over the last two rounds.

With percentage to determine which team would make the playoffs should they end up on the same record, the Kings do hold that advantage over the Hawks so right now just winning one more match over the last two rounds that what Illawarra does should be enough to see Sydney reach the finals.

After Thursday night's game in Perth, the Kings are back home in Sydney to host the first place Melbourne United before critical games away to the Hawks and at home to the Brisbane Bullets next week which will end up determining who ends up taking part in finals action for #NBL21 or not.

The stats

- If the Wildcats win this game they will become the first team in NBL history to sweep an opponent 5-0 in a regular season having won the first four meetings already against the Kings.

- Sydney went 2/15 from three-point territory at 13.3 per cent despite winning over the Breakers in New Plymouth on Saturday.  Over the last two rounds, the Kings are last in the league in terms of three-point shooting going 23/104 at 22.1 per cent. That includes Casper Ware going 3/24 at 12.5 per cent, Daniel Kickert 4/16 at 25 per cent and Brad Newley 1/12 at 8.3 per cent.

- The Wildcats have actually won four of their past five matches without superstar Bryce Cotton, including Sunday in Adelaide by eight points. But Cotton has averaged 26.0 points against the Kings again this season after putting up 31.7 points against them a season ago.

The key men

Will Magnay – Without Bryce Cotton now, it appears the best chance for the Wildcats to still be a dominant force and a genuine championship threat is to get the most out of what should be an important front court duo of John Mooney and Will Magnay. Mooney has already recorded 21 double-doubles this season including four against the Kings so far at an average of 21.0 points and 14.3 rebounds. Magnay is still slowly finding his defensive and offensive groove in his first seven games with Perth, but he's gone 0/4 without scoring in the last two games. However, his last game against Sydney was in Round 12 last year with Brisbane and he had 23 points and 14 points – both career-highs.

Casper Ware – He has built quite the fascinating rivalry with Bryce Cotton throughout his NBL career both when at Melbourne United and now the Sydney Kings. While he'll still have Mitch Norton hounding him defensively, up the other end he won't have to spend so much energy guarding Cotton so that could help him deliver a match-winning performance for Sydney and to snap out of his recent shooting slump from beyond the three-point arc. 

The quotes

Wildcats coach Trevor Gleeson provided an update on Bryce Cotton following his surgery on a haematoma to his left quadricep and he has accepted the fact it's unlikely we will see him again at all this season.

"Bryce is hopefully about to get out of hospital and he'll be in recovery mode for a fair while. We'll keep the door open for him and we hope he has a speedy recovery, but we're certainly not planning on him joining us anytime soon," Gleeson said. 

"Playoffs start in two weeks so obviously for that first series he'll be very, very doubtful but the longer it goes the better chance we've got or if the NBL delayed the finals because of what's happening in Melbourne. That might be a benefit too. But at this stage, we hope he's back but being realistic it won't be for the first lot of finals. 

"He got some symptoms on Saturday and we're thankful he didn’t fly to Adelaide with us. It started off with cramps and it escalated from there, and he had an ultrasound and an MRI which showed some fluid in there. So he had to rush in to have some emergency surgery because the bleeding got too severe and caused permanent damage. 

"The operation was good, it was a little bit messier than they thought so it really depends how his body recovers now. We won't know that until he gets back out of hospital and starts his recovery process. It's certainly not going to be in the short-term."

Gleeson and the Wildcats aren’t completely giving up on the possibility of Cotton returning should they reach the Grand Final, but until then it's just about working out how to play, and win, without him out there.

"We'll give him the best possible chance to join the team again but being selfish, it's just bad timing to happen at the end of the season. We've got another week to go for the regular season to finish and two weeks' time until the playoffs so we're fighting against time on that part," Gleeson said.

"We can't replace Bryce, he is one in a million. He's MVP multiple times, has led us to three championships so it really is about our team. We've got a great team that plays the right way, unselfishly and has each other's back, and it's about how we respond collectively. To take up that slack will be a team effort because no one person can fill Bryce Cotton's shoes."

Immediately Gleeson expects Luke Travers to come into the starting line-up and for an extended role for Clint Steindl and possibly development player Corey Shervill, but he is backing in the team's chemistry.

"Luke will probably come into the starting line-up and we are still integrating Will Magnay in there so hopefully we'll get a bit of cohesion out there now. The good thing is we have three games to build that and we've had one already to work on that rotation to see how we perform under pressure," Gleeson said.

"I wouldn't say it's rebuilding, it's just tinkering with it. One of the best things that the Wildcats have is that our chemistry is always strong. We've been strong on that for a number of years so that's going to continue to be our focus."

Sydney coach Adam Forde was relieved to at least come away from the trip to New Zealand last week splitting those two games ahead of the challenges continuing with Perth and Melbourne inside three days, and then Illawarra and Brisbane next week to close things out.

"It's almost like a boss level we are going through. We came to New Zealand and these guys are tough, and we split here so that's almost like the first level of it. Now we go to Perth and then we host Melbourne 48 hours later so that's almost the next level with the two teams guaranteed of top two spots," Forde said. 

"Then in the last round we have Brisbane and Illawarra who are in that same position that we are. The best thing about it is that it's on us so we can't blame anyone else if we make top four or if we don’t, if we win or if we lose. It's solely on us because these are the teams that we have to play. Obviously we want to try and win as many as we can so we aren't relying other teams results, but the great thing is that we are playing the teams we need to beat to make the top four."

Forde has one positive above all others about getting to bring his team to Perth on Thursday and that's that he will get to catch up with his family.

"This is where I can empathise with New Zealand because I left home in August and just with borders and WA, and the schedule and my partner's schedule and we have a one-year-old, it's been tough," Forde said.

"I underestimated how much I would miss my family and I'm very comfortable with the decision that I will be moving aside after this season. Whatever I do next has to obviously involved all of us and I'm very conscious of that. This is my 10th year in the league and I was an assistant in nine of those, and I feel comfortable now as a head coach. It will be purely based on the family factor though."