R16 Preview: New Zealand Breakers vs Perth Wildcats

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 1 May

Where: Silverdome, Launceston

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
New Zealand 83 (T Webster 27, Delany 17, Bach 16) d Perth 78 (Mooney 22, Blanchfield 19, Cotton 12, Wagstaff 12), Round 14, RAC Arena, Perth

Someone forgot to tell the current-day Wildcats and Breakers their rivalry is a thing of the past, because these teams keep producing classic after classic. In Round 13, New Zealand came from seven down with two minutes to play and looked home, only for a deliberate free-throw miss to drop in off the backboard, and then Bryce Cotton broke their hearts.

Fast forward five days and Perth lead by 13, only for Levi Randolph to lift his new team on his shoulders and carry them to an unforgettable win. These sides have two more meetings this season, who knows what they will produce next? With Cotton v Abercrombie, Mooney v Iverson, Webster v Norton and Blanchfield v Randolph, this shapes as another classic.


The now
Perth have now slipped 1.5 games behind Melbourne, who are rampaging on a 10-game winning streak and showing little interest in giving up top spot. The Wildcats’ upcoming fixture reads New Zealand, Melbourne, New Zealand Melbourne – two teams that have beaten them this season – so the next 13 days could define their NBL21 campaign.

Finding a definition for the Breakers’ unusual season is a tough ask, given the uncertainty they’ve faced on and off the court. At 8-16 they sit 4.5 games out of fourth spot with 12 to play, meaning they need a barnstorming rally to get back in the picture. With their next nine games against top five teams, we’ll know shortly if they’re contenders or pretenders.


The stats

 - Perth are averaging 6.7 three-pointers against the Breakers, accounting for 24 per cent of their scoring. Against other times they hit 9.9 triples for 34 per cent of their total score

 - The Wildcats’ offensive rebounding percentage against NZ is 24 per cent. Against the rest of the NBL they pull in a league-best 33 per cent

 - New Zealand’s assist-to-turnover ratio against Perth is a lowly 13.7-to-12.7. In contrast, the Cats have averaged 17.3 dimes to just 9.7 miscues in this season series

 - The Breakers are 1-11 when they fail to reach 80 points. Under Dan Shamir, they’ve only reached that mark once in six meetings with Perth, and that was in their Round 14 triumph


The key men


Bryce Cotton – Here’s a take for you, on current form Cotton is no longer the best player in the league. Now there’s little doubt he’ll reclaim that title at some point, but the fatigued MVP is a shadow of his best. His past three games have produced 17ppg at a wayward 28 per cent, and just 7-of-26 from deep, and the last time he shot 50 per cent from the floor was Round 9 when he torched the Breakers for 24 points and 7 assists.

Can he break Tom Abercrombie’s shackles this time around? The NZ skipper helped hold him to 2-of-8 from inside and 2-of-9 from outside in their most recent meeting, but as Bryce showed in the Round 13 overtime classic, his best is only ever one shot away. That night, after being held to 27 per cent shooting over the opening 39:59, he scored 12 points in the final 5:01, including a staggering game-tier to force the extra period.

Levi Randolph – Last time in Perth, the Wildcats just couldn’t find an answer to the Breakers’ hand-off action when Randolph was involved, the former NBA Summer League standout showing all his big game moxie when it was needed most. After the Cats’ advantage his 13 shortly after half-time, Randolph scored 15 points on 7-of-7 shooting over the next 13 minutes to completely turn the tide in a way few have out west.

Interestingly, in New Zealand’s three wins with Randolph guiding their sleigh, he’s averaged 19.8ppg and 2.8apg, shooting 18-of-29 from two-point range, while in their four losses he’s managed just 7.8ppg and 0.5 dimes, while hitting 8-of-24 from inside the arc. Quite simply, the Breakers need him breaking open the defence, so whether Perth can find ways to disrupt his supply coming off bruising Colton Iverson picks will be critical.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LEVI&#39;S BUILT TOUGH ?<br><br>23 POINTS<br>11/16 FGM<br>4 REB | 3 AST<a href="https://twitter.com/LeviRandolph20?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LeviRandolph20</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/zQRMaOF4fU">pic.twitter.com/zQRMaOF4fU</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1383715394490302474?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


The quotes

The battles between New Zealand and Perth this season may not have been a thing of beauty – the two teams averaging 76.7ppg and 78.3ppg respectively – but they have been a beauty to watch.

The Wildcats lead the season series 2-1, but they’ve had to work for everything, with Dan Shamir’s men taking away their great strengths for long periods with their comfort in the half-court grind Perth also favours so much.

“Overall a great win for us, a great team effort,” Shamir said after their stunning Round 14 win in Perth.

“The main thing that jumps out at the stat sheet is a phenomenal offensive rebounding team, rebounding usually 35 per cent of their rebounds, today only with five.”

The Breakers currently lead the season series 37-32 when it comes to second chance points, an area the Cats rarely lose.

“That was the difference in the game. You can’t get beat on the glass 41-26 and expect to win a lot of games,” centre John Mooney said.

“Big fella Iverson is a great player, he had 17 boards tonight, but he battled harder than I did so it starts with me, and we all need to be better on the glass.”

Crucially, preventing Perth’s second chances also takes away their kick-out threes after offensive rebounds, a play that usually creates high-percentage looks, and left the Cats offence running through mud just to create a look at the basket.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="cy" dir="ltr">Cotton o&#39;clock ???<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/CwXlYxQyLf">pic.twitter.com/CwXlYxQyLf</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1383698966613610498?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


“Five days ago we kept Perth, who are the most efficient team in the NBL, to 37 per cent from the floor. That was great. Both games were great, this one was also a huge one, they missed a few shots, we made a few big plays, it was a close game, we got the win,” Shamir said.???

“Five days ago it was a brutal loss for us, we really felt it. We wanted to miss a free-throw that probably would have given us the win and accidentally made it. That’s how close it can get.”

In that Round 13 game they go so close to shutting down Cotton, and yet he ends up the game-breaker. That’s how close that can get. Fast forward five days and they locked the MVP down for the best part of 40 minutes.

“We had great team effort on defence,” Shamir said.

“We were playing an extremely talented player in Bryce Cotton, who has counters for a lot of things that everybody throw at him, and I think we did a decent job the last game and he ended up with 32 points, just because he’s good.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BRYCE. COTTON.<br><br>We&#39;re going to OT.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/jiO9xmRyoh">pic.twitter.com/jiO9xmRyoh</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1381935257692217352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



“He still played a very good game and finished with 9 assists, but games like that are close, the cumulative effort gave us a win, and hopefully we can build on that.”

They haven’t been able to, falling to Cairns and Melbourne either side of a slicing for the Sixers, to leave them squarely on the playoff precipice.

Perth have no such issues, with a playoff berth locked in and home-court advantage in the semi-finals tantalisingly close, with Trevor Gleeson’s man needing perhaps just three more Ws to lock in a top-two spot.

That’s far from the end game for the reigning back-to-back champs, however, who watched their league-best offence come crashing down across a gruelling five games in 10 days.

However, following a five-day break they lit up Brisbane for 92 points at 47 per cent to suggest their offensive mojo is back – Cotton nailing 3-of-8 from the arc after going 7-of-41 from deep over the previous four games.

As is often the case though, it was the Wildcats’ defence that got them going and Gleeson is looking for his team to lock in the effort and intent on D and the smarts on O as they head to the playoffs.

“I thought the first quarter was outstanding, we came out of the blocks really well, our defence was good our rebounding was great, then we kind of got into that lapse period where we got comfortable, we really didn’t get out of our comfort zone,” he said.

“That’s why we’ve got to be executing down the other end of the floor, not turning the ball over and getting quality shots, playing that 40-minute basketball. That’s what we have to build up if we want to go far at the end of the year.”