R16 Preview: New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks

Monday, May 3, 2021

Tyler Harvey and Tai Webster will square off, but it's the supporting cast of the Breakers and Hawks who could have the biggest say in this one.

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Monday 3 May

Where: Silverdome, Launceston

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Illawarra 102 (Harvey 22, Jessup 20, Bairstow 17) d New Zealand 88 (C Webster 22, T Webster 20, Iverson 13, Patterson 13), Round 6, John Cain Arena, Melbourne

This last meeting was a long time ago, way back at the beginning of the NBL Cup when the league was still the run-and-gun affair of previous seasons. The Hawks literally ran New Zealand off their feet in the second term, piling on 33 points behind 23 from Tyler Harvey, Sam Froling and Cam Bairstow to set up a 14-point half-time lead. The Breakers wouldn’t get closer than nine the rest of the way, despite the prolific work of the Webster brothers.

The now
Right now New Zealand probably wish they were playing the Wildcats, given their string of recent close match-ups and comfort level against Perth’s half-court game. The good news is an injury-hampered Hawks haven’t been playing at the same pace as early in the season, which will be a blessing for a Breakers side playing their fifth game in 11 days. The bad news is Illawarra are coming off a nine-day break after their intense schedule throughout April.

With 10 games to play, the Hawks are 1.5 games behind third and fourth. Six of their next eight are against New Zealand and Adelaide – with the other two Cairns and Melbourne – giving them the chance to clear out in fifth and put heat on the top four. The Breakers are 4 games behind the playoff bracket with 11 to play and finish with seven straight in NZ, but after the Hawks on Monday they have three road games in six days in a defining stretch.

The stats

- Illawarra shot 16-of-30 from three-point range at 53 per cent in their Round 6 win over the Breakers. Across all other games, NZ have allowed 7.3 triples at 34 per cent

- The Hawks have not scored more than 82 points since Round 11. In the opening 11 rounds they did so 12 times for nine wins.

- When New Zealand keep opponents to 82 points or less they are 7-2, compared to 2-14 when they don’t

- The Breakers coughed the ball up 20 times against the Hawks in Round 6 and allowed 30 points off turnovers. In their nine wins, NZ have averaged 10.6 miscues and allowed 10.8 points from turnovers

The key men

Tyler Harvey – In back-to-back wins over SE Melbourne and Cairns, Harvey averaged 28.5 points at 49 per cent and 9-of-20 from deep. In their three losses since those numbers have been 16.3 at 34 per cent and 7-of-24. Across the season, Harvey has averaged 26.9 points in wins on 4.3 made triples at 48 per cent. It’s a huge burden to have to produce those elite numbers just to get Ws, especially against NZ who are masters of defending the arc.

Levi Randolph – When Randolph has a nose for the hoop, good things happened for the Breakers. Since he’s joined them their record is 4-4 – compared to 5-12 previously – and in those four wins he’s averaged 21.8 points on 25-of-40 from two-point range and 2.8 assists. Contrast that with the four defeats where he’s managed just 7.8 points on 8-of-24 from inside and 0.5 assists. He’s the missing penetration link, and Illawarra must shut him down.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">CONFIRMED. LEVI HAS THE CLUTCH GENE.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/ZAJRY9K2HQ">pic.twitter.com/ZAJRY9K2HQ</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1388424887631417344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes

There’s no doubt season 2021 has been a battle for the Illawarra Hawks, but they are battling hard.

The limited availability of Cam Bairstow, who is again ruled out for Monday night in Launceston, has made their offensive game highly perimeter focused, and allowed defences to key on Tyler Harvey and Justinian Jessup.

One of the obvious answers to opening up the inside game has been the ball-screen work of back-up point guard Emmett Naar, but he’s struggled to earn the notoriously tough defensive trust of new coach Brian Goorjian and been limited to 14 minutes per game.

Last round against Sydney, however, with Bairstow, Jessup and Deng Adel all sidelined, and the Kings ahead by 14 early in the third term, Goorj was left with little choice.

“We have a lot of guys who haven't been playing a lot but have been training hard since the start of the year and they got an opportunity tonight, and I thought they brought us back and got us back into the game,” Goorjian said.

“I thought (Naar) was big in that, we were in a big hole at the start of the third quarter, made some changes to what we ran, made some changes in personnel, and the guys that came in, Max Darling, Isaac White, Emmett Naar and Deng Deng turned it around and got us back in the game.

“Tyler’s a scorer, and the offence at periods of time – it happened in Melbourne, happened a little bit in Perth – we quick shot the ball and didn’t get through process.

“So when we fell down 15 or 16, I moved Tyler to the two spot, brought Emmett into the one and slowed the game down, and played pick-and-roll.

“Emmett came up with 12 assists, no turnovers, we got good shots, got our defence set and turned it into a grind out game and got back in it.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Defence, offence... <br><br>Find you a Sam who can do both.<br><br>@sfrol13 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/ZYSWReUnZX">pic.twitter.com/ZYSWReUnZX</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1385918597227159557?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 24, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Naar was able to bring his fellow emerging talent into the game with his savvy reads, and that’s going to be a key against the Breakers.

In Illawarra’s Round 6 win over NZ, Justinian Jessup, Deng Adel and Bairstow combined for 47 of the Hawks’ 102 points at 56 per cent from the field and 9-of-13 from the arc. All three are either out or in doubt for this clash.

Dan Shamir’s men pride themselves on their on-ball defence, but Melbourne and Jo Lual-Acuil tore them apart with his short rolls and quality decision making, something Naar and Sam Froling will need to do Monday night to move to 13-14 and 3.5 games clear of the Breakers.

“I was just trying to read the way they were playing us in the on-balls, they were coming out and showing, which was leaving Frols open on the rolls a little bit and he’s a great finisher, he's getting a lot better at making those decisions on those short rolls, that was something we tried to exploit,” Naar said.

“Moving Tyler off the ball, the way they were playing him, it just sort of makes it four-on-four because he’s getting hugged, which he should be because he’s such a great player, and it gives a lot more space for the other four on the court which gives us a bit of an advantage.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TAI TIME.<br><br>BIG play from <a href="https://twitter.com/Tjawtherula?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Tjawtherula</a> for the <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NZBreakers</a> to take the lead <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/vGQVVIdJ6n">pic.twitter.com/vGQVVIdJ6n</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1388423920898899972?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Of course, after another stunning victory over Perth, a Breakers’ W would have them within 1.5 games of Goorjian’s men and give them an injection of belief that they can catch Sydney or the Phoenix over the run home.

“I hope so. I definitely think like that. As long as there is a chance mathematically – and we are a few games behind – then we should think like that,” coach Dan Shamir said.

“How to get there? It’s more of the professional aspect and how you need to prepare for each game and execute. It’s more about the day-by-day, but you definitely have to think like you are not done for the season.

“Right now we have to fight, we are playing a lot of games, we are probably playing a stretch of five games in 10 days, and it takes a lot out of you, but you still have to find it as a team in our situation … the bottom line is we had some drops.

“We came to Melbourne after nine wins in a row and they find the energy to start strong and we give up 31 points in the first quarter. Obviously the game against Cairns here wasn’t great in the way we came out.

“So the main thing is to prepare ourselves, we have a game here in 48 hours, not to have a drop, to have a good performance and to give ourselves a chance.”