R16 Preview: Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 28 April

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Melbourne 84 (Hopson 19, Landale 15, Goulding 14) d New Zealand 78 (Delany 33, C Webster 13, Randolph 11), Round 13, John Cain Arena

A Finn Delany masterpiece wasn’t enough to get the Breakers a badly-needed win, as Melbourne peeled off a bench-inspired 11-0 run in the final minutes of the third quarter to turn a tied game into a comfortable lead. While New Zealand would close within four early in the fourth on a Delany three-point play, Jock Landale responded with 6 points and a feed to Mitch McCarron to push the advantage out to 13 and out of the visitors’ reach.


The now
The Breakers are 3-2 since that meeting, Monday’s convincing victory over Adelaide keeping their playoff chances realistic. But now things get real, three games in effectively five days across Round 16, the first two taking on powerhouses Melbourne and Perth, with the finale against the grindy Hawks. Three wins and the post-season looks promising, two and they're still alive, but anything less than that and those chances become mostly mathematical.

If Melbourne keep rolling you’ll need some maths to keep track of their winning streak. It currently stands at nine, but interestingly six of those were decided by 10 points or less, including two against NZ. A top two berth is now all-but locked in, and with five of their next six games in Melbourne, the streak is a good chance to continue. The Breakers stand as a tricky opponent, however, the teams’ three meetings decided by just 12 points in total.


The stats

 - Melbourne are +35 on bench scoring in this season series, while New Zealand’s starters have outscored their United counterparts by 23   

- The Breakers average 5.3 offensive rebounds against United, compared to 9.7 against the rest of the league. Melbourne have averaged 7.3 o-boards in those games, down from 11 in other games

 - United have shot the ball at 49 per cent against the Breakers, who have held the rest of the NBL to 45 per cent. NZ have shot 47 per cent in this season series, up from 44 per cent in other games

 - Against New Zealand, Melbourne average 19 points from three-pointers and 52 from twos. Against other opponents those numbers are 31.2 from triples and 43.5 from deuces


The key men

Colton Iverson – When the big fella has three or fewer fouls, the Breakers are 7-7, once he gets four or more they are 1-8, highlighting just how important he is to New Zealand at both ends. In three losses to Melbourne, he’s averaged 29 minutes, above his season average, but just 6.3 rebounds, well down from his 9.3 against all other opponents.

The biggest drop comes at the defensive end, where he’s managed just 3.7 d-boards as Landale and Jo Lual-Acuil draw him away from the basket. Coach Dan Shamir’s defensive schemes will try to minimise his on-ball involvement, so Melbourne’s ability to create and make open looks against the sagging D will be a big factor in the result.

Scotty Hopson – He may have been uncharacteristically quiet against Adelaide with just 1 points in 15 minutes, but Hop has had no such troubles against his former team, scoring 35 points in under 58 minutes of court time, including 11 points and 3 assists in 16 final-quarter minutes against the Breakers, playing his role as United’s closer.

Where Hopson has hurt New Zealand is his ability to score in multiple ways, going 2-of-4 from the three-point line en route to 16 points in Melbourne’s Round 8 win, then going 6-of-9 from two-point range and 7-of-9 from the foul line in his 19-point haul in Round 13. His likely duel with Tom Abercrombie in crunchtime shapes as a pivotal battle.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Scotty Hopson with the athletic finish at the basket ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLCup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLCup</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/GSBr1Wuhep">pic.twitter.com/GSBr1Wuhep</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1364868179034443781?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


The quotes

This clash is a special night for the New Zealand Breakers.

If one man openly and boisterously typified the spirit of this club, which grew from struggling expansion franchise to a powerhouse that played in five grand finals in six years, winning four of them, it is Mika Vukona.

But there is no man who has personified the quiet determination with which this club goes about its business than Tom Abercrombie.

The Breakers have had a lot of reasons to quit this season, but through one challenge after another they have stuck together, and Abercrombie has been the rock at the centre of that resilience.

There was no better example of that than their recent triumph in Perth, where Abercrombie locked down the unlockable Bryce Cotton, the made the match-sealing steal and bucket at the end.

“Tom’s the voice of the team, the captain and he came up with a huge play today,” experience centre Colton Iverson said.

“To play with guys with his experience is great, and for him to make a play like that to finish the game is huge. I'm just happy to be playing with him.”

When Abercrombie stands around the circle for Wednesday night’s jump ball, it will be his 355^th game for the Breakers, moving him past the legendary Vukona into first place on the club’s list.

“To take the record of Mika, I guess it’s a pretty special thing,” Abercrombie said.

“One of my favourite teammates, he’ll always be my captain. A player and a person I respect probably more than any other guy I’ve played with … It's a club that is extremely special to me and will be forever. It's a big honour to take over from Mika as the most capped player.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Last time out against the <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CairnsTaipans</a> <br><br>Tip off is right around the corner.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/I0kIRMWlH1">pic.twitter.com/I0kIRMWlH1</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1385527319385677825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 23, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



Milestones don’t come much bigger than this, and the Breakers will undoubtedly be desperate to produce a W.

They’ve almost done that three times against Melbourne this season, particularly their opening two meetings which were both decided by just three points.

Last time they fell by six but found a serious chink in United’s defensive armour with Jack White sidelined, as Finn Delany scored 33 points on 12-of-18 shooting – including 9-of-12 at the rim – to almost drag his team to the win.

“Against a lot teams in his position we’re looking to run a few actions for him that create a lot of opportunities for him. He took advantage of it, came very focused and really had a great game,” coach Dan Shamir said.

“Unfortunately one guy playing at this level is not enough, we need to play together collectively at a higher level, hopefully we will get it soon.”

That time has come. William McDowell-White picked up a triple-double against Brisbane, Levi Randolph tormented Perth’s defence, Corey Webster had shot 50 per cent or better in two of his past three games, Rob Loe is back in action, while Abercrombie had 19 points against Adelaide on Monday as the team system clicked.

“We came with the right mentality and speed and we shared the ball collectively,” Shamir said.

“Twenty-one assists is the way we should play and it should happen more often.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Good looks, CG<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StandWithUs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StandWithUs</a> <a href="https://t.co/xjdaMqxVYa">pic.twitter.com/xjdaMqxVYa</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnitedHQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnitedHQ/status/1385862297122267140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 24, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Melbourne also shared the ball pretty well against Adelaide, but found themselves in a physical dogfight until late, and coach Dean Vickerman is expecting more of the same from the dangerous Breakers.

“Adelaide, New Zealand … they're both sitting on a bubble right now with 15 losses, so they're in finals mode and that’s the way that they're playing,” he said.

“We know we had a tough battle with them last time, we expect them to be even better coming in on Wednesday. Rob Loe’s played a few more minutes, Will McDowell-White’s been there a little bit longer and I think they're evolving as a team as well.

“Finn Delany gave us some trouble last time, that’s one of the key ones we've got to pick up on, Corey Webster’s always dangerous.

“We did a good job with Iverson the last time, Jock did an amazing job on Daniel Johnson tonight to keep him to 5-of-19, Jo Acuil as well.

“As long as we can contain those guys and just improve a little bit on our shooting tonight, we got some really good looks, so as long as we can improve on that a little bit more we go in there pretty confident.”