Preview: Perth v Melbourne

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 14 October, 2022
Where: RAC Arena, Perth
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Melbourne 84 (Goulding 18, Dellavedova 17, Lual-Acuil 14) d Perth 75 (Cotton 18, Blanchfield 15, Law 13) – Round 18, NBL22 at RAC Arena

This see-sawing clash has 12 lead changes in the opening half, and Perth led late into the third period. However, a Delly trey tied the scores at the final break and sparked a 15-2 run that turned the tide Melbourne’s way. The Wildcats closed within four down the stretch, but a massive Shea Ili triple secured United’s sixth successive win at RAC Arena.

What happened last game?

Melbourne sure would have loved Shili on the floor against the Kings last Sunday, their defence ripped apart as their visitors racked up 57 points in the opening 20 minutes on 10/16 three-point shooting. The 'Cats then said ‘hold my beer’ on Monday night in Cairns, dropping a whopping 60 by half-time on 12/24 from deep. Can lightning strike twice for both Perth and United? Or will the NBL21 champs find some clamps to slow Cotton and Co?

What’s working?

Discipline – The Wildcats have produced some ominous numbers at both ends in the opening two rounds, averaging a mere 9.0 turnovers to show their discipline with the ball, and allowing opponents just 8.0 free-throw attempts to show their defensive discipline, while giving up league-lows of 73.3ppg and 43.4 points from ‘ones and twos’.

Short memory – Let’s be honest, nothing worked for Melbourne last week, so they’re best to have a very short memory, at least until they next face Sydney. One fact worth remembering is the Kings fell by 42 at John Cain Arena last season and went on to win the title, showing how insignificant even the worst early-season performance can be.

What needs stopping?

Bricks – Perhaps the worst aspect of United’s display was the 2/20 shooting from two-point range in the opening half. While Sydney defended well, the reality is Dean Vickerman’s men had 22 open shots in the first 20 minutes and made just six. If that wasn’t bad enough, from their total of 32 missed field goals before half-time, Melbourne grabbed only five o-boards.

Mistakes – Amazingly, United committed just eight turnovers in that game, which highlights how bad the rest of their offence was. They’ll need to be just as frugal with the ball against Perth, who are forcing a league-high 20 turnovers per game – the NBL average is 13.6 – and have converted that to an 84-24 advantage in points from turnovers across three games.

Who’s matching up?

Bryce Cotton v Chris Goulding – Two superstars having contrasting starts to NBL23. Bryce is shooting an impressive 54 per cent inside the arc en route to 20ppg, but struggling at 27 per cent from deep. Goulding is nailing 3.5 triples at an incredible 47 per cent, but converting at just 25 per cent on twos. Cotton, however, is contributing 7.0 boards, 4.3 assists and 2.7 steals, while those numbers for CG43 are 1.0 in each category. He’s averaged 2.3 dimes across his time in Melbourne, and they need him creating more right now.

Todd Blanchfield v Rayjon Tucker – Hot Toddy was back in his 350th game, dropping 5/8 triples in a vintage display. Given his previous nine games had delivered 10/44 from the arc, Blanchfield would have felt a weight off his shoulders. He can’t relax defensively though, because the “best new import” monkey is still on Tucker’s back – having taken 27 field goals in the opening two games and made just six. This is a man whose last NBA game produced 15 points at 71 per cent, however, so expect the breakout game to come soon.

Brady Manek v Isaac Humphries – It’s fair to say six points at 43 per cent and five boards per game is not the return ‘Ice’ was expecting to give his new team. Melbourne need to get him better inside touches, but he needs to finish when he gets the chance. Manek too hasn’t been living up to expectations, but found form in Cairns with 14 points at 75 per cent and 2/3 from range, having gone 3/14 prior to that. Can Humphries test Manek’s interior defence? And can Brady stretch Isaac to the perimeter and test his lateral quickness?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BANG BANG! Brady gets ? and about!<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/nNlF87jmV7">pic.twitter.com/nNlF87jmV7</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1579404904514613248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Last season The Jungle lacked venomous creatures, but it’s back to its bad-old self to start NBL23.

As had long been the case, it is once again built on the back of defence, with the Wildcats posting outrageous defensive numbers en route to three-straight wins to start the season.

Their defensive rating of 95 in a high-scoring start around the competition highlights this, with an average rating of 111.1 across the other nine clubs, and Sydney a distant second at 102.3.

Perth’s ability to slide their feet and apply hand pressure to the ball has been exceptional early, allowing them to force 20 turnovers per night while fouling just 11 times. Is that sustainable?

“I hope so, that’s what we work on every day,” coach John Rillie said.

“The numbers from last year showed we needed to tighten up on defence, and the Hawks game it really showed, our defence kept us in the game.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LT says N?PE.<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/IR7KvLF7YD">pic.twitter.com/IR7KvLF7YD</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1579416268477992960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

No doubt Melbourne will have the heat applied to them from tip-off, and feeling the heat all week, but point guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes is confident his team can rebound from their Round 2 shocker and play through Perth’s pressure.

“We have some great veteran leadership in this team who can help settle us down. We have had a couple of great film review sessions, and I think we’re back on track and heading in the right direction,” he said

“It’s essential for a team to have great leadership and guys who can weather the storm. We always want an even keel, never get too high with the good and never too low with the bad. We’re trending in the right direction – the guys know what we have to do in order to win.

“Perth is a tough trip, but these road trips are good. We get out of our normal routine and get to be on the road with just our team.”

Yet while ball security is important against the 'Cats, with TaShawn Thomas in doubt and Rillie’s line-up lacking a true centre, attacking their interior is crucial.

Perth are holding teams to 29 per cent from the arc and keeping them off the foul line, but they are giving up 53 per cent shooting once the ball gets inside.

Melbourne headed into the season with a double-headed monster in Isaac Humphries and Ariel Hukporti to pound the ball into, but that hasn’t eventuated with their Next Star out for the season.

As a result, United have been outscored by 42 points in the paint across two games to turn what was expected to be a strength into an early weakness.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big Tim soaring above the United defence for the <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SydneyKings</a> ?<br><br>Catch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> action on 10 Peach, 10play and Kayo Freebies <a href="https://t.co/fDNXreFsPO">pic.twitter.com/fDNXreFsPO</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1578980880101826561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 9, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There is no doubt pressure is building on Humphries to perform, and while coach Vickerman knows his centre missed most of last season and will get better with time, but he says that time is arriving soon.

“We’ve got consistent good minutes into him for a number of games now,” Vickerman said.

“Now we’re going to start to expect more. We’re going to start to expect him to start getting some double-doubles.

“One area Isaac was a lot better (against the Kings) was his rim protection. He protected the rim a lot better, and his on-ball coverage was significantly better.”

Expect Melbourne’s defence to be a lot better across the board on Friday, coach Rillie certainly is.

“We played them in the pre-season, their backs were a little against the wall in that one and they came out fired up. The same thing, Sydney really took it to them over the weekend so we have to match the physicality and intensity they're going to come out with early,” he said

“They're a great opponent, they're championship title winners over the last couple of years so we really need to come out aggressive and handle their physicality.”

Melbourne need to handle Bryce Cotton, and with no Shea Ili – along with no Matthew Dellavedova, Caleb Agada or Yudai Baba from last season’s incredible defensive backcourt – that becomes a very tough ask.

Vickerman revealed Rathan-Mayes will get first bite at the usually-poisoned cherry, but the coaching staff are also seeing it as a way for the struggling Rayjon Tucker to make his mark.

“X guarded him in the pre-season and we thought he did a pretty good job,” Vickerman said.

“We really want to challenge Tucker as well to take on some bigger defensive assignments, and think he’s got the agility and speed and length to really trouble some of these guards and keep him highly engaged defensively as well on some of these key guys.”