Preview: Melbourne v Cairns

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 20 October, 2022
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 92 (Goulding 27, Dellavedova 17, Hukporti 12) d Cairns 80 (Ayre 20, Deng 16, Pinder 15) – Round 20, NBL22 at John Cain Arena
Ben Ayre was the story of this game as the Taipans training player turned point guard drained four triples en route to a 20-point, 10-assist double-double. Apart from that the tale was a predictable one, Chris Goulding dropping six triples of his own as Melbourne overcame a fast Snakes start to move 15 ahead in the third term and cruise to victory.

What happened last game?

CG43 went 1/6 from deep against Tasmania as United struggled to proverbially throw a beach ball into the ocean, their 29 first-half points only just eclipsing their Round 2 struggle against Sydney, and taking the gloss of their outstanding road win in Perth. Cairns knocked the Kings off their early-season throne with a come-from-behind away win, moving to 3-1 on the new season thanks to five Taipans scoring in double figures.

What’s working?

Not the bench – Last season, Melbourne’s reserves ranked third in scoring and field-goal percentage, second in o-boards and first in rebounds, assists and steals. So far in NBL23, they're eighth in scoring and field-goal shooting, ninth in boards and dimes and last in thefts, which fuel their transition game. The absence of Shea Ili hurts, but Dean Vickerman needs more punch from the pine, after they were outscored 30-10 by the JJ’s reserves.

Hand pressure – The Taipans racked up 13 steals against Sydney last round, and are averaging 13.3 in wins compared to just four in their only loss. Tahjere McCall, DJ Hogg and Shannon Scott are all in the top five for thefts, but that’s not built on the back of gambling. The level of hustle and help defence Adam Forde’s men show on each possession puts them in positions to get deflections, steals and be +15 on possessions in their three Ws.

What needs stopping?

Shannon Scott – Not only is Scott picking pockets with the best of them, he is a Scrooge in return. In his first four games – a total of 123 minutes – the 29 year-old has only committed four turnovers while grabbing nine steals. Add to that 6.5apg to sit third in the league and a healthy 39 per cent shooting from clip, Scott is clearly the straw stirring the Snakes drink, as his 13 points, three assists and three steals in the second half against Sydney attest.

Oppo possession points – During Dean Vickerman’s time in New Zealand and Melbourne his teams have always been amongst the possession giants, and across the opening three games of NBL23 they were +27 in points from o-boards and turnovers. However, in the 10-point loss to Tassie, United were -23 on possession points, and only generated 61 field-goal attempts and 10 free throws as a result, compared to the JackJumpers’ 64 and 19.

Who’s matching up?

Chris Goulding v Bul Kuol – When CG43 goes 1/10 in a game you don’t want to face him next. Over the past five seasons, after scoring in single figures Goulding has nailed an average of 3.8 triples at 38 per cent in the following outing. He’s dropped 4.3 treys at 45 per cent in his past 10 games against Cairns, so the unassuming Kuol has some work to do. Bul’s currently shooting 36 per cent from deep, and he has to make CG work at both ends.

Isaac Humphries v Sam Waardenburg – It took a couple of games for the big Kiwi to adjust, but his past two outings have produced 27 points in 47 minutes, shooting 4/10 from deep. Humphries also started NBL23 slowly before going to work inside against Perth, scoring 16 points from within five feet of the cup. Ice got just six attempts against Tassie, but made four from within three feet, and he’ll be hoping to take the rookie to school down low.

Xavier Rathan-Mayes v Shannon Scott – While Melbourne’s offence has many problems – eighth in scoring at a league-worst 40 per cent – XRM isn’t one. Take out United’s Sydney stinker and he’s averaging 22.7ppg at 52 per cent from deep, while dishing 5.3 assists to 1.3 turnovers. Rathan-Mayes is currently the NBL’s most efficient PG from ball-screens, but few guards have defended like Scott this season. This should be a cracking battle.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Back 2?? Back for XRM<br><br>?: ESPN via Kayo Sports or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/9VkoEiCWh7">pic.twitter.com/9VkoEiCWh7</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1580873215215562753?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Who’s saying what?

If you were told Cairns would start the season with road trips to Tasmania, Melbourne and Sydney, yet their only poor performance would be their sole home date, most would probably laugh.

However, if the Taipans prevail at John Cain Arena on Thursday they will have defeated the three best home teams of NBL22 on their own floor inside the opening 20 days of the season.

Add that to their insipid showing in front of the Orange Army against Perth, and it has already been a crazy ride for the high-energy Taipans, but coach Adam Forde isn’t getting caught up in it.

“Everyone reacted to the Tassie win, we didn’t. Everyone reacted to the Perth loss, we didn’t. Everyone will react to this win, we won’t,” he said post-game in Sydney.

“We’re not going to ride this emotional roller-coaster everybody else wants to.”

Instead, the Snakes have a brand and an identity they want to uphold, minute after minute, something they did superbly in Sydney as the champs came at them repeatedly.

“For us, we’re just plotting those KPIs as we go, we’re not trying to go by anyone else’s beat of the drum, other than our own,” Forde said.

“So for us to stay composed when numerous times there was adversity, whether it be match-ups, whether it be particularly moments in the game we stayed solid.

“Keanu fouled out, we stayed solid. Shannon cramped u, we stayed solid, and that’s what’s important.”

It’s that focus on the small components they need to execute that has allowed them to regularly chase down leads and then close out games, whereas last season’s Snakes had a capacity to capitulate under pressure.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DJ from deep! ?<br><br>Hogg is up to 15 points after the triple and Lat is loving it! ? <a href="https://t.co/35OoYOp9Ci">pic.twitter.com/35OoYOp9Ci</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1580864485635432449?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Every game we’ve played in we’ve been down 10, we've recovered in three of them. I don’t particularly like starting out like that, but one of the things people said … we would struggle down the stretch,” Forde said.

“In terms of their composure, for an inexperienced group that’s the most veteran-like leadership I've seen.”

Right now, Cairns and United are a study of contrasts.

Both have a significant number of new pieces, yet the Taipans are playing outstanding team basketball and ranking second in the NBL for assists.

Melbourne rank dead last in that category, and are the second most frequent side for isolation plays behind only Adelaide.

It’s for that reason the soon-to-be 39-year-old Dave Barlow has not just been brought out of retirement, but inserted into the starting lineup.

He will likely be crucial in the big man battle with Sam Waardenburg and Keanu Pinder, whose past two games have delivered an impressive 34 points and 26 rebounds.

“My trust went with Barlow, we’re starting him and playing him 27 minutes, he’s +7 when he’s in the game and he leads us in assists, he was amazing,” coach Dean Vickerman said after the loss to Tasmania.

“Barlow’s just a quick decision-maker, he’s always in the correct spacing, he makes the defence have to give a little bit more room for (Tucker) to be able to get downhill.

“When things break down he has the ability to run into a quick screen and make something happen ... he affects the game by making 0.5 decisions and that’s good for us.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some very handy triples get us back in it. <br><br>?: ESPN via Kayo / Foxtel, or 10 Peach / 10 Play <a href="https://t.co/9fyL6H3zxS">pic.twitter.com/9fyL6H3zxS</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1581498225785462785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Vickerman is desperate for Barlow’s selfless attitude to be contagious amongst the team. There were signs of it in Perth, but it disappeared under the JackJumpers’ defensive heat.

“I thought we grew in Perth, and tonight was a little bit similar in it’s going to be aggressive coverage coming at you, you're going to have to move the basketball and move it with some precision, which at times we did in Perth, but tonight they came aggressively at us and we got stuck with the basketball,” Vickerman said.

“It just became one-on-one. That’s the most disappointing thing for me, out of pressure or out of any type of coverage if everybody gets involved good things are going to happen.

“If we get stuck with it and play one-on-one we’re not good rough right now to either get to the foul line or finish plays.”

That lack of sharing the ball meant Isaac Humphries couldn’t exploit Tasmania’s undersized defence, the way he did in Perth and how he must in order to get a win over Cairns.

“Ice is doing his job and we’re not rewarding him,” Vickerman said.

“We rewarded him the other night, he’s going to set great screens and move and we've just got to be able to see him.

“If he got another five or six catches when he was open tonight, I think there might have been a different result.”