Preview: Illawarra v New Zealand (Round 18)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 2 February, 2023
Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ; Prime NZ

Who won last time?

Illawarra 78 (Harvey 25, Mathiang 15, Froling 11) d New Zealand 76 (Pardon 19, Brantley 16, Abercrombie 13) – Round 16 at Spark Arena, Auckland

There have been many memorable Hawks games this season, for good and bad reasons, but none quite like this one. Coming into Auckland on the back of five-straight single-figure defeats, a desperate Illawarra built a 15-point margin in the first quarter and saw off charge after charge to be 10 ahead with three minutes to play. But déjà vu struck as New Zealand pinched the lead on a Tom Abercrombie steal-and-dunk with 10 seconds left, only for Tyler Harvey to hit the unthinkable game-winner from the Hungry Jack’s logo at half-court.

What happened last game?

That win ended the Hawks' losing skid but also burst the relentlessness they’d been playing with for 40 minutes, and they’ve been run over late by both Brisbane and Perth since, with Bryce Cotton’s 40-point haul too much to handle last time out. On the contrary, since dropping their fourth-straight to Illawarra the Breakers have found form and outlasted in-form Kings and United outfits, and also blew the Bullets out of the water with a full squad finally on deck.

What’s working?

Getting disruptive – New Zealand has forced 19 turnovers in both of its wins since the return of Barry Brown Jr and Izayah Le’afa – winning points from turnovers 49-24 – their deep perimeter crew of that pair, Will McDowell-White, Tom Abercrombie and Rayan Rupert are now able to apply heat for four quarters. In five undermanned games before that the Breakers forced only 12.2 turnovers and were -28 on points from turnovers.

Running off the arc – That defensive intensity is key to their ability to shut down the three-point line without opening up the inside. The Breakers allow opponents to make a league-low 7.7 three-pointers – only Perth have made 10 or more triples against New Zealand in the past 21 games – but in that five-game depleted stretch they leaked 60.2 points from ‘ones and twos’, compared to just 50ppg inside the arc in subsequent wins over Brisbane and Melbourne.

What needs to be stopped?

Tyler Harvey – The Breakers tried to run Harvey off the arc two weeks ago, but he ran to the corner and faded out of court, ran to the Hungry Jack’s logo and ran around celebrating after dropping 6/12 triples. Not one of those trifectas toed the line, and four of them were from a metre or more beyond. How does Tom Abercrombie and the New Zealand defence take away his endless range without setting Sam Froling free on the roll-out?

Fading late – While the ending to Round 16 was more than memorable for Illawarra, the reality is they’d been outscored 26-17 in the fourth quarter until that point. They were thrashed 22-8 in the final stanza in Perth and 30-19 in the closing 10 minutes by Brisbane. Their injury-stricken roster makes it difficult to maintain their now trademark intensity for 40 minutes, but to get a victory over the desperate Breakers they must find a way.

Who’s missing key men?

New Zealand are expected to be at full strength, while Illawarra will take in the same one-import line-up that faced the Wildcats last round.

Who’s matching up?

Sam Froling v Dererk Pardon – This is a great contrast of styles. Froling is the composed, finesse big, while Pardon is the strong, athletic enforcer. The Breakers’ big man got the better of this battle last time and finished with 19 points and 17 rebounds – including 10 boards on the offensive end – to Froling’s 11 and six. With no Mangok Mathiang in support this time around, it’s a huge job for Froling to man up and keep his relentless counterpart off the glass.

Wani Swaka Lo Buluk & Dan Grida v Barry Brown Jr – Brown was in street clothes last time the teams met, and while he struggled to an 11-point, 3/11 showing against Melbourne, his 14 points in 16 minutes on Brisbane showed the rust hasn’t set too deep during his lay-off. While Michael Frazier II is no longer available the Hawks have two athletic and capable young defenders in Swaka Lo Buluk and Grida, who will get a great test against one of the NBL’s best.

Deng Deng v Jarrell Brantley – Jacob Jackomas played Froling and Mathiang together for significant stretches in Round 16 and that interior presence helped hold Brantley to 16 points. The import forward will be Deng’s task for much of the night on Thursday, however, and given Brantley has averaged 22.2ppg at 50 per cent and 13/30 from deep his past five games, a strong defensive showing could make a statement for the out-of-contract Hawks power forward.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Are u serious JB!!?? <a href="https://t.co/TBDzPrzMuN">pic.twitter.com/TBDzPrzMuN</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1619249675202347009?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 28, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Sam Froling put on a show last Friday in Perth to pile on 21 points at 67 per cent to go with 10 boards, two assists and the highest statistical rating of anyone not named Bryce Cotton.

It was a remarkable performance given his brother Harry had spent the week in hospital with a serious head injury.

“He was able to lock in today and have a great game, and show a lot of toughness,” coach Jacob Jackomas said.

“Credit to him and credit to his family, I'm sure they're all proud of him. I'm sure it was a perk for them as they're going through a tough time.”

It’s been a tough time for many in the Australian basketball community given Harry's popularity, not least of all the Hawks where he spent the NBL22 season.

“We all at the Hawks have a special bond with Harry, we still communicate with him, we’re still communicating with him now, he’s still a good friend of a lot of guys on the team and a lot of guys on the staff,” Jackomas said.

“All we do with Sam is show him love, and we know that Harry’s going to get through and we can’t wait to see him get through it.”

Sam’s standout showing in front of the 12,500-strong Red Army typified the second half of the Hawks’ season – no matter what gets thrown at them they keep showing up and making the people of the Illawarra proud.

“Sammy’s a special player and obviously we've got a lot of young guys on the team that are getting chances,” veteran Tim Coenraad said.

“The hope is these young guys take these experiences and learn from them because you can’t replace game time, these guys are getting a really special chance to be out on the floor when most guys in their position aren't getting that many minutes.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Davo decided to get fancy with it ?‍??<br><br>? ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/U9yXWQbDnb">pic.twitter.com/U9yXWQbDnb</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1618928512228020224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

After four disappointing seasons, the Breakers are once again making New Zealand proud of them.

That was made loud and clear when 6488 passionate fans made it to Spark Arena last Sunday despite Auckland’s flooding crisis.

“My main goal was to make the playoffs, and the way to achieve it for me was to play in a way that would gain the trust of the community, and that they would see something in how we do things and it would resonate with the way Kiwis do things,” coach Mody Maor said.

“If 6500 people come to the game today in these circumstances, it means all those people see something in the Breakers that resonates with them. I couldn't be happier or prouder.”

The Breakers have been open about their desire to emulate the power years of the club, which featured a quintet of top-two finishes and four titles between NBL11 and NBL16.

They can lock in the first half of that equation and get direct entry to the semi-finals by winning their final two games against cellar-dwellers Illawarra and Brisbane.

“We’ve worked very hard to be in this situation,” Maor said.

“As an athlete this is what you want, your destiny is in your own hands. Now it’s on us to go out and perform, and we welcome the challenge.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rob providing the scoring ? <br><br>He had 15pts and 6reb whilst draining 100% from three ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/QRX4cN4c3w">pic.twitter.com/QRX4cN4c3w</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1619499326870532097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 29, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

However, while many pundits seem to be assuming the in-form Breakers will get that job done, Maor only needs to think back two weeks to Tyler Harvey’s half-court game-winner to know nothing in the NBL can be taken for granted.

“It’s the only thing in a basketball player and a basketball coach’s life – the next possession,” Maor said.

“All the rest is noise. That’s 100 per cent the way we need to address this. It’s not about winning two (games), it’s about winning the next two minutes, and then the next two after that ...

“These guys have proven to me over the season they have a good understanding of what’s important and what’s not. I think they understand.”

The Breakers understand how good this Illawarra team can be defensively.

In the Round 16 boilover, they held the Breakers to 76 points at 38 per cent, and only gifted them 12 free throws, and recently restricted a full-strength Kings line-up to 84 points.

New Zealand are ready for that challenge, getting back to their own defensive best against Melbourne to win a low-scoring grind on Sunday when Rob Loe broke open the game with his expert roll-game and combination with McDowell-White.

“We stayed the course, and defended well throughout,” Maor said.

“It was just a matter of time before Rob Loe decided to make a few and break the game open. When he did we went on that run, (but) it always comes from defence for us. We had a stretch there with 10 stops in a row, and that usually breaks games open.”