Preview: Illawarra v Melbourne (Round 5)

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Struggling Melbourne and Illawarra go head-to-head at John Cain Arena, and the loser could be on the bottom of the NBL ladder by round's end.

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 29 October, 2022
Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

Illawarra 96 (Rathan-Mayes 25, Cleveland 22, Reath 18) d Melbourne 90 (White 17, Goulding 16, Lual-Acuil 15) – Round 18, NBL22 at John Cain Arena

These were better days for the Hawks, charging towards the NBL playoffs by downing the ladder-leading Melbourne twice in a row on their home floor. Xavier Rathan-Mayes was simply unstoppable in the mid-range, running up 25 points on 9/10 shooting from inside the arc as Brian Goorjian’s men survived a three-point barrage from Chris Goulding and Co.

What happened last game?

United started fast in their rematch with Sydney, but when the inevitable Kings barrage came they had no answers, outscored 81-51 over the final 35 minutes as their defence leaked inside and their jump-shot dominant offence faltered. Every aspect of Illawarra’s offence seems to be flailing, shooting a 31-27-56 clip from inside-outside-foul line in Brisbane, after going 41-20-41 three nights earlier against the same opponent.

What’s working?

Peyton Siva – Are there any positives for Hawkheads? Well Siva was a high-level play-maker in Europe, averaging 10.9 points, 5.4 assists, 1.3 steals and shooting 38 per cent from deep in 258 games across the Italian Lega A, German BBL, Eurocup and Euroleague. So his five dimes, two steals and 3/5 shooting from deep in 20 minutes on Hawks debut is a solid sign.

Rayjon Tucker – He may have talked the talk, but now Rayjon is walking the walk, delivering 39 points, 20 rebounds and six assists in his past two games. His past four outings have seen 36 per cent shooting from deep, and Melbourne are understanding how to get him better involved from the top of the arc, now they just need to create more open-court chances.

What needs stopping?

Droughts – United’s terminal droughts continued against Sydney, outscored 29-4 in two bursts totalling 12 minutes in a game they lost by 18 points. That now makes 57 desolate minutes this season where Melbourne have been blitzed 170-27. They are +98 across the other 188 minutes of NBL23, but if they can’t find a way to up the defensive energy when their scoring dries up, and generate points from their D, it’s going to be a long season.

Melbourne’s perimeter trio – It’s no secret Wani Swaka Lo Buluk is Illawarra’s lockdown perimeter defender, but who will he guard out of Tucker, Goulding and Xavier Rathan-Mayes? Can Siva pester XRM’s handles and be disruptive enough to avoid post-ups? And who is the best assignment for Harvey? Does George King need to spend more time at SF?

Who’s matching up?

Isaac Humphries v Sam Froling – Last Monday, Aron Baynes put the Hawks to the sword as the roll-man, scoring inside and finding shooters for open threes. Humphries had a similar coming out party in Perth, scoring 12 second-half points as the roll man. Can Jacob Jackomas find a balanced ball-screen defence that denies Ice deep touches, while not giving up open looks to Rathan-Mayes and Goulding? Most likely they’ll test Tucker’s range. At the other end, can Froling make the most of his short-roll catches after going 1/11 in Brisbane?

Chris Goulding v Tyler Harvey – Usually this pair stepping on the same court would have the air raid sirens going off, such is their ability to bomb from range. However, Harvey has made just 4/20 outside and 9/29 inside the past three games as the Hawks have scored 59.7ppg. CG has been inconsistent from deep and in creating for others, hitting a combined 13/27 and dishing 10 dimes in his first, third and fifth games, but 4/19 and three assists in his second, fourth and sixth. The good news for Melbourne fans is he’s due for a bounce back.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You just cannot leave this man open. CG43 goes BANG ?<br><br>Watch live & free ? 10 Peach & 10play | Every game live on ESPN via Kayo & Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/wt9N9zNfXg">pic.twitter.com/wt9N9zNfXg</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1584065440497573889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

It’s easy to forget that Sam Froling is only 22 years old, given the important role he has played in back-to-back playoff runs for the Hawks.

But the reality is he is just a kid by NBL standards, and the burden of being relied upon as a major piece for an undermanned team is a heavy one.

Last season, amongst Illawarra’s star-studded rotation, Samson ranked first in field-goal percentage and o-boards, second in defensive rebounds, blocks and free-throw attempts, and fourth in assists.

This season, without the same level of talent on the roster, Jacob Jackomas’ men are relying on his high IQ reads and highly-efficient finishes as the short roller to fuel their offence.

It just hasn’t happened, however, his shooting clip plummeting from 54 to 39 per cent, and it has the young Boomers squad member downcast.

“We missed some easy ones, we hang our heads and they get easy ones and you see that score stretch a little bit. I can’t play like that, I think I’m guilty of it, Tyler is probably guilty of it as well,” he said.

“I think I'm playing a bit soft at times, taking the easy option and missed some and I let it affect me on the defensive end. I think I've got to stick to playing a little harder, playing tougher and not let my poor offensive decisions how I'm playing on the other end.”

In reality, he needs to take the pressure off himself, especially in a game against an out-of-sync Melbourne team as much under the pump as the Hawks are.

The more the Hawks struggle, the tighter they appear to be getting, to the point where Froling, Tyler Harvey, George King and Co are missing wide-open shots they’d eat up in happier times.

“Our three best guys didn’t shoot the ball well and now we’re relying on guys who aren't those guys,” coach Jackomas said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Davo Hickey finishing this game like it started - by absolutely YAMMING one home ?<br><br>Catch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/bXdz6ttsvX">pic.twitter.com/bXdz6ttsvX</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1585576252861054977?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In the past three games, where Illawarra have remarkably averaged below 60ppg, Froling, Harvey and King have shot a combined 29/95.

While Froling and Jackomas spoke extensively about effort post-game on Thursday, when your opposition is able to rebound and run on most possessions, defending becomes very difficult.

It's also true that the Hawks haven't adjusted to the level of contact being permitted this season, and need to utilise more of the physical grappling that can grind opponents’ offensive sets to a halt.

“Just to be a little bit more physical, maybe to play with a little bit more pop and passion,” Jackomas said.

That physicality will be key against Melbourne – who will be without import forward Jordan Caroline – especially the in-form Rayjon Tucker, who is getting accustomed to the degree of holding and bumping downunder.

“The game is a totally different game from the NBA,” he said.

“There’s a little bit less space, players are tougher, it’s a little bit more physical, so I’m just getting adjusted to that part ... it’s a bit more physical and you get away with a little bit more.”

He’s started to make the adjustment though – upping his scoring from 12.5ppg at 31 per cent in his opening four games to 19.5ppg at 46 per cent the past two – and he says his teammates are the big reason why.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trey-Jon Tucker is off to a hot start in ??? ??????? with a lovely corner three?<br><br>Watch live & free ? 10 Peach & 10play | Every game live on ESPN via Kayo & Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/FVN7m3Fmxs">pic.twitter.com/FVN7m3Fmxs</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1584050158550933505?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“I look to those guys a lot,” he said.

“For me, I’m visual, I just kind of watch where CG gets his shots, where Newls curls off and how he gets in the paint and finishes, and how smart and articulate Barlow is, how he moves the ball and his 0.5 (second) reads.

“Just taking a little bit of everybody’s game and trying to fit it into my own to not only help myself but help the team.”

Illawarra have lacked that leadership to help their young line-up since Justin Robinson went down, but Jackomas is hopeful Peyton Siva can get their shooting percentages back up.

In the opening quarter on Thursday, while he was still fresh after his mad dash from the USA, Siva played 6:45 and in that time Illawarra scored 17 points on 6/10 shooting, with their new floor general assisting on half those buckets while draining a triple himself.

Over the rest of the game the Hawks shot 25 per cent, so there is hope a bit more organization will make a big difference.

“Peyton coming in made us look a little bit better offensively, but he was limited with minutes coming off a plane,” Jackomas said.

“Sometimes we’d have the wrong guy with the ball in his hands making decisions he doesn’t normally make, he can definitely help us that way and he can definitely help us with a little bit of leadership.”