Preview: Illawarra v Brisbane (Round 16)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 21 January, 2023
Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Brisbane 86 (Sobey 22, Cadee 13, Froling 13) d Illawarra 61 (Deng 11) – Round 5, Nissan Arena, Brisbane
Peyton Siva stepped off the plane and stepped into a mess as Illawarra got hammered for the second-straight game by the struggling Bullets. The visitors didn’t score more than 17 in any period and Deng Deng was the only Hawk in double-figures. For Brisbane, Nathan Sobey got hot from deep, Tyler Johnson got to the free-throw line at will, while Aron Baynes and Harry Froling dominated the offensive glass as they led by 12, 22 and 27 at the three breaks.

What happened last game?

A lot transpired for both these clubs since, little of it good, and their combined records between that meeting and the end of Round 15 was a lonely 5-27. Then Thursday, 19 January came along, and it started with Illawarra coughing up their game-long edge in Auckland with nine seconds to play, then breaking their 11-game skid with one of the most remarkable game-winners the NBL has seen. Not be outdone, the Bullets made it two wins on the trot with an overtime thriller on the back of Johnson and Jason Cadee’s brilliance.

What’s working?

Guard power – Greg Vanderjagt has handed the keys to his talented backcourt threesome and in the two-game win streak Cadee, Johnson and Nathan Sobey have combined for 109 points at 55 per cent inside, with 81 of those points from the paint or foul line. Remarkably, for a trio of sharpshooters they have gone 8/33 from deep in those two outings, and how will that effect the way Sam Froling and Mangok Mathiang defend the ball-screen?

Horsepower – Another question is how are Brisbane going to deal with Illawarra’s two-headed monster? While Froling was carrying the interior load not long ago, Mangok has rediscovered the juice that helped him crack the NBA and star in Europe. In the past eight games, the twin towers have averaged a combined 25pppg, 14.8rpg and 4.1apg. Can Baynes, Froling, Tyrell Harrison and Gorjok Gak match the energy this pair is playing with?

What needs stopping?

Tyler Harvey – Is T-Raw now on the cusp of the All-NBL First Team? His inconsistent start might hurt, but the reality is his past 16 games have delivered 21.1ppg at 43 per cent from range, and his past seven 23.9ppg on 4.9 triples per night at 44 per cent. In that recent span, perhaps not even Bryce Cotton could top him as the NBL’s best shooting guard, and with the patented floater going again Brisbane will need some creative ways to stop him.

Key cough-ups – In the past three games, where Illawarra are just -8 against the league’s top three teams, Harvey has scored a total of 24 points in the final six minutes, his game-winner in NZ sealing his Mr Clutch status. However, in those 18 combined minutes the Hawks have coughed up 11 turnovers to negate their captain’s mercurial shot-making. A little more composure down the stretch and there could be more tight Ws on the run home.

Who’s missing key men?

Tanner Krebs remains sidelined for Brisbane, while Illawarra are expected to field the same line-up as Thursday night in Auckland.

Who’s matching up?

Deng Deng v DJ Mitchell – This pair brings serious excitement with their athleticism and marksmanship, Deng recently coming off a five-game stretch where he averaged 13.4 points on 11/21 from deep along with 7.2 boards. He’s hit just 1/8 from outside the past two games, and will be looking to reconnect. Mitchell did just that after shooting 1/9 in a five-game span, scoring 27 points on 5/9 the past two outings while adding nine rebounds, five assists and two blocks. Which four-man comes hot on Saturday could be a big factor.

Will Hickey v Nathan Sobey – Brisbane would be thrilled to pinch two wins with Sobey making just eight field goals and only one trifecta in 64 minutes. It shows the Bullets are playing as a team finally, and it’s also scary how good they could be with Sobes shooting efficiently. Hickey likely gets this tough job with the Olympian sure to be eyeing off a better performance. It will be a great test for the deceptively athletic 196cm guard, who’s had as many steals as turnovers the past three games but will need to match Sobey’s intensity.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SOBEY MEETS DRM AT THE RIM <br><br>Watch on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/04O0znMd9H">pic.twitter.com/04O0znMd9H</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1616002201520070660?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Rumour has it Jacob Jackomas was sending Bill Murray to Thursday’s press conference if the Hawks lost another tight game, given his expertise reporting on Groundhog Day.

Thankfully, it didn’t come to that. The gripping clash in New Zealand was everything we've come to expect from the Hawks over the past few weeks, but with one very important twist.

“Tyler hit a big shot, they hit big shots too, but we finally got one where we were ahead at the end,” the relieved coach said post-game.

Of course, Harvey’s game-winner will long be remembered and replayed as one of the greatest in the NBL’s long history, but the back story makes the shot even more special.

Four imports lost to season-ending injuries, 11 losses by 10 points or less, back-to-back heartbreaks against the top two teams, and then pandemonium.

“It was just a mix of different emotions,” Harvey said.

“We've been through a lot this last three months and all the emotions just came out in this shot. It’s not just that shot, it’s everything that led up to that.

“We've been competing every game, we did let it slip a little bit at the end but we found a way to get it done.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TYLER HARVEY TO WIN THE GAME. HE IS MAGIC ?<br><br>UNRIVALLED DRAMA<br><br>WHAT A GAME OF NBL BASKETBALL ? <a href="https://t.co/218UNw8XkS">pic.twitter.com/218UNw8XkS</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1615989417155637250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Hawks sensed a wounded Breakers outfit, trying to adjust life without Barry Brown. Having been through that process a number of times and finally come out the other side, Jackomas delivered an interesting message to his team pre-game.  

“What we spoke about is we've been down longer than they’ve been down and we’re used to it,” he said.

It’s a process Brisbane have been battling with too, both on and off the court.

Suddenly though, with Greg Vanderjagt settled in his role, supported by Pero Cameron and Peter Crawford and with close to a full roster available, the Bullets are resembling a basketball team again.

“I think it shows where we’re at, there’s a lot of basketball to be played in the season,” Vanderjagt said.

“The group wants to compete and wants to play for each other, they want to play for the Bullets fans that keep turning out every single week.”

They also want to rebuild the club’s battered reputation, a visit from some past greats for Heritage Round having a big impact on Tyler Johnson and Co.

“Vandy talked about us being custodians of the club before the game started, and no matter how the season has gone that resonates with some of the older guys, and I think the younger guys took the challenge on today,” Johnson said.

“No matter what happens we are a part of the history of the Brisbane Bullets. This season may not have gone down the way we wanted it to but that being said, there are still things to build on, there are still moments to be had.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TJ IS CLUTCH??<br><br>We are going to OT in Brisbane<br><br>Watch on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/In3cIWfyzi">pic.twitter.com/In3cIWfyzi</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1616023063472246786?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There was a key moment in coach Vanderjagt’s mind in their win over Adelaide, and that was the erroneous out-of-bounds call.

“In the past, in that moment we would have been distracted by it and it would have taken us three or four possessions. What the group was able to do was huddle, focus on that defensive possession, focus on the next offensive possession and grind out a win,” Vandy said.

“The response to the adversity shows growth in the group. Really happy with how we responded to something not going our way, which is certainly a change for us, which is positive.”

Where two weeks ago the Illawarra-Brisbane battle was seen as the ultimate consolation prize for a pair of down-and-out clubs, suddenly it’s a much-anticipated clash between two form teams.

“We've found some rhythm and we've been fortunate to play a lot of basketball in a short space of time and that’s helped us find that rhythm,” Vanderjagt said.

“What (the Hawks) have been able to do, they’ve lost so many close games, they play their backsides off every single night, Tyler Harvey’s a hell of a basketball player, Sam Froling’s having a great year, Wani Swaka’s found a groove.

“They’ve got one American so they're down on bodies right now, but it’s dangerous to play a team like that who feels good about themselves.

“To break the drought in New Zealand was huge, they're going to come in with a lot of confidence and if we’re not ready we’re going to get punched in the face by a good, quality basketball team.”

Brisbane broke their drought on the road in South East Melbourne, then repaid their loyal fans with a back-it-up home W, and now Illawarra are looking to do the same thing.

“Tomorrow it’s right back to business,” Tyler Harvey said in Auckland.

“It’s one game at the end of the day, it was a big game for us and we’re excited to play in front of our home fans for this next one, I know they're going to come out and support us.”