Preview: Brisbane v New Zealand (Round 18)

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 4 February, 2023
Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ; Prime NZ
LIVE SCORES AND STATS

Who won last time?

New Zealand 99 (Brantley 22, Pardon 17, Brown 14) d Brisbane 71 (Johnson 20, Baynes 13, Sobey 13) – Round 17 at Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Brisbane rolled into this clash on a three-game winning streak, full of confidence after downing the Phoenix, 36ers and Hawks. The Breakers walked in with the full roster back on deck, fresh off a huge drought-breaking win in Sydney. However, what shaped as a quality contest in the opening 11 minutes quickly turned into a rout, as New Zealand unleashed a 46-21 run in 13 minutes surrounding half-time on the back of eight triples.

What happened last game?

That performance sparked a three-game winning run that has the Breakers on the verge of securing second place, and they've downed Melbourne and Illawarra in tough encounters since. If they can repeat the Round 17 dose on Brisbane, no matter the margin, the Breakers will gain direct access to the semi-finals.

The Bullets recovered some pride later in Round 17, and were within a basket of the Taipans with six minutes to play – their big-name trio of Nathan Sobey, Tyler Johnson and Aron Baynes combined for 60 points on 18/29 shooting inside the arc – but ultimately they couldn’t keep Cairns off the arc or the foul line.

What’s working?

Tyler Johnson – Johnson has intimated he may return to Brisbane next season, and after 20ppg in his past eight games since showing his passion in an honest post-game press conference, that would be a huge boost for Bullets fans. He had 20 points against New Zealand last time as a lone offensive hand, and backed that up with 20 and seven assists in Cairns, and if Brisbane are to pinch this from the Breakers he’ll be making tough plays through contact.

Playing Brisbane – The Bullets have averaged a meagre 75ppg at 39 per cent against New Zealand this season, while being forced into 16 turnovers per night. The Breakers have had a party at the other end too, they've rolled out 107.5ppg in two wins by a combined 65 points, shot 58 per cent from the field and nailed 28 triples at 48 per cent. To finalise the humiliation, New Zealand are +5 on second chance points despite missing 12 fewer shots.

What needs stopping?

Jarrell Brantley – The man who’s enjoyed that party the most in Brantley, who has licked his lips at Brisbane’s inexperienced power forward line-up and produced 51 points in 46 minutes in the season series, shooting 16/20 inside as the Breakers have gone +42 on points in the paint. He has also nailed 5/10 from distance to be +5 despite playing just over half game-time. The challenge is laid out in front of DJ Mitchell and Gorjok Gak to respond.

Inside Bullets – It’s not like Brisbane can’t defend or score inside. In wins they're +60 on points in the paint, scoring 63.3ppg from ‘ones and two’ while limiting opponents to just 53.4. In losses, however, that flips to scoring 56.4ppg while conceding 67.3. In their four outings surrounding the recent loss to the Breakers, the Bullets have been +56 inside the key and +20 on the scoreboard, with Greg Vanderjagt making penetration and post-ups a priority.

Who’s missing key men?

Jason Cadee, Tanner Krebs and Harry Froling will again be unavailable for Brisbane, while Barry Brown (injured hand) is a game-time decision for New Zealand.

Who’s matching up?

Aron Baynes v Dererk Pardon – Baynes’ resurgence has triggered the Bullets improved inside dominance, his past four contests have delivered 14.3ppg at 60 per cent inside, after he’d made just 44 per cent of twos in his opening 18 games. His match-up with Pardon in Round 17 was solid, with the Bullets only -7 in Baynes’ 22:24 as he produced 13 and five but -21 in the other 17:36, while Dererk delivered 17 points and nine boards in the same court time.

Nathan Sobey v Izayah Le’afa – After a 10-game stretch averaging 10.7ppg at 35 per cent from the field and 6/29 from distance, the old Sobes rolled into Cairns and dropped 27 on 6/12 at the cup and 6/6 from the foul line. Le’afa may have been 0/3 against Illawarra, but he was a game-high +18 in 26 minutes, showing he is back to his disruptive defensive best after recovering from a back complaint. This battle will be played out at high intensity.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nathan Sobey&#39;s got those sneaky hops ??<br><br>Follow the action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/EOt8mqNhqT">pic.twitter.com/EOt8mqNhqT</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1616000895929679874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Do you believe in omens? Four times the New Zealand Breakers have had home-court advantage in the semi-finals – in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 – and they’ve claimed the title on each occasion.

One man, the only man, who was there for all four and is still in Breakers blue is Tom Abercrombie, but he was in no mood for celebrating his club’s resurgence after their narrow escape in Wollongong.

“It’s a dangerous position to be in. These teams are, as you saw in the first half, just playing in complete freedom and a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose,” he said.

“To their credit they came out and punched us in the mouth, but we've been pretty good at taking punches this year and responding the right way. We did it again, but not a position you want to find yourself in.”

The Berakers are just one win away from locking in second spot, and will soon host the first final in New Zealand since 2018 after four long and disappointing seasons, but again, it’s not something their skipper wants to think about just yet.

“I’ll tell you after we beat Brisbane,” he said.

“It’s a pretty big carrot for us and obviously it puts an extra importance on that game and it’s one we've got to go and get, we've got to earn that second spot by beating them.

“We’re going to have to go and play well.”

That’s something they did after half-time at the Sandpit, outscoring the Hawks 56-31 after letting it run down their legs in the opening 20 minutes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The ball smooovement ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/AbBuuLWBbb">pic.twitter.com/AbBuuLWBbb</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1621089248203116545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 2, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“When the game got away from us a little bit, we were down eight or seven, we went away from the way we do things. We started gambling, scrambling, leaving players, taking risks, not playing strong,” coach Mody Maor said.

“We also tried to play very one-action orientated offence, we really went away from our characteristics and this snowballed into a 16-point deficit.

“My request to the guys was just to lock in to how we play. There’s no 16-point baskets, there are no 16-point stops, it’s just about executing one play after the other after the other the right way.

“If we play the right way and we lose, we all feel ok with it. Usually this team, when we play the right way we win.”

That’s exactly what Brisbane have been focusing on under Greg Vanderjagt, and while there have been hiccups, the progress has been undeniable.

“Every time we take a lump we bounce back really well,” Vanderjagt said after the narrow loss in Cairns.

“We got beaten by New Zealand the other night, I thought we played a good game of basketball tonight, played with the right intent and the way we want to play.

“There’s definitely an aspect of how do we want this group to look next year and starting to build our identity to what the Brisbane Bullets are going to look like in NBL24, particularly on the defensive end of the floor.

“We keep working towards that, we've got a full week of practice and we get to play New Zealand next Saturday night.”

The Bullets are hopeful of having Aron Baynes, Tyler Johnson and Nathan Sobey all back in uniform next season, and that trio is playing high-quality basketball late in the season as the rust from each of their long lay-offs has finally disappeared.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bangers doing it all early in the second half ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/pzS4LRViMD">pic.twitter.com/pzS4LRViMD</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1619280937698881536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 28, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Baynes in particular has led the way, now able to cover far more ground defensively, meaning coach Vanderjagt no longer needs to sit his star centre to change up the D.

“His presence in the pick-and-roll, his ability to get up and hard show and disrupt and talk (is great),” Vandy said.

“Just his sheer size in the paint creates driving lanes for Sobes and TJ to get on the rim, he’s got two guys hanging off him the whole game. It’s a war down there for him and he keeps battling through it.

“He’s a big target and a big presence, and I really like what he’s been bringing to the group these past 10-12 games since he’s felt healthy.”

While the Bullets are missing three important pieces, their star trio has a lot of pride, and after two humiliations at the hands of New Zealand will be hoping to make a late statement now they’ve found a rhythm.

“When you sit out and you haven't played for a long time it takes a little bit,” Tyler Johnson said.

“We've played in the (NBA) for eight-plus years apiece. Usually this is the first third of the season, so you play your way into form.

“We've been fortunate to have games where we’re not having a week in between so you can get better by playing. I've benefitted off that, Baynes has benefitted off that and the guys have.

“I know we dropped one to New Zealand but leading up to this point we've been playing good basketball because we've been playing and playing.”