Boomers Olympic Opposition Analysis: USA

Thursday, August 5, 2021

Who are Team USA's key players, who are their X-factors, and what will the Boomers need to focus on to advance to the Gold medal game and guarantee their first-ever Olympic medal

Written for nbl.com.au by Tom Hersz

Australia Boomers v USA

When: 2.15pm (AEST), Thursday 5 August

Where: Saitama Super Arena, Tokyo, Japan

Broadcast: 7 Network, 7+

It’s all been building to this moment. A shot at a Gold Medal awaits and it’s only fitting that we’ll have to go through the United States to get there.

The Boomers dominated Argentina in the second half of their quarterfinal matchup, turning a 6-point lead into a 31-point lead with a 25-0 run through the end of the third and into the fourth quarter. Their defence was elite after quarter time, holding the Argentines to just 37 points over the final three quarters; a mark we hit ourselves in the fourth quarter alone.

All eleven players scored, we won the rebound count, controlled the tempo, limited our turnovers, moved the ball beautifully with 33 assists on 35 made field goals and shot a very impressive 49% from the field, including 17-38 from downtown.

It was as impressive a performance as we could have hoped for and the 38-point final margin was just three points shy of our biggest ever win at an Olympics.

Patty Mills led the way with 18 points, while four other players had double-digits. Nick Kay had a double-double (10pts, 10reb), Joe Ingles had 7 assists, new San Antonio Spurs signing Jock Landale had 5 assists and 3 steals, while Matisse Thybulle had 3 steals of his own.

There were so many positives, but the defence is what stands out the most and that’s what will be most important as we try to make history against Team USA.

They had a tougher contest on Tuesday, only putting Spain away for good late in the fourth quarter. After falling behind by double digits in the second quarter, the US clamped down defensively and managed to level the score at half time.

They then went about building a lead, but never managed to put Spain away. However, they did control the game for most of the second half. Their defence made life difficult for everyone but Ricky Rubio, while offensively they found some rhythm finally as well as some touch from the perimeter.

Kevin Durant was again spectacular with 29 points, while Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday provided support. They closed it out 95-81 to get back to the medal round after a disastrous campaign in China in 2019.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"The Slim Reaper" leads <a href="https://twitter.com/usabasketball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@usabasketball</a> ?? to the Olympic Semi-Finals!<br><br>Box Score ? <a href="https://t.co/gvPZdVSTqz">https://t.co/gvPZdVSTqz</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tokyo2020?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Tokyo2020</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Basketball?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Basketball</a> <a href="https://t.co/7OOab0EhOW">pic.twitter.com/7OOab0EhOW</a></p>— FIBA | #Basketball #Tokyo2020 (@FIBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/FIBA/status/1422445559625838592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 3, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So now we get a riveting matchup. The #1 ranked FIBA team versus the #3 ranked team, with the underdogs – the Boomers – having a small claim for bragging rights after beating Team USA in their last two meetings.

Both were exhibition games of course, with the last one just over three weeks ago in Las Vegas as we stunned a slightly undermanned Team USA 91-83 behind a massive third quarter.

The US have since added Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Devin Booker to that team, as well as replacing Kevin Love and Bradley Beal with JaVale McGee and Keldon Johnson, so they are a different team. Still that result gives the Boomers group a little more belief than they may have had otherwise, especially as Aron Baynes only played 4 minutes in that one before leaving with a knee injury and we’re without him now.

This is still Team USA however, with 12 NBA rotation players and a much more stacked roster than they had in China two years ago, so it is not going to be easy. But as France showed in the opening game of Group A play, they are beatable.

Who are the players to watch, who are their X-factors, and what will the Boomers need to focus on to lock in their first ever medal?

Players to Watch - USA

Kevin Durant: As talented as this roster is, there’s no question who the alpha dog is and for good reason. Kevin Durant, who had an amazing comeback season in the NBA with the Brooklyn Nets, is Team USA’s leading scorer averaging 18 points per game.

He led the way in their semi-final with 27 points on 10-17 FGs and is shooting an insane 54.2 FG% / 45.8 3FG% / 90.0 FT% clip through four games in Tokyo.

Durant, whose Nets lost in heartbreaking fashion to the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals, has been on a mission since touching down in Tokyo. Along the way, he became the leading scorer in USA Men’s Olympic Basketball history, passing Carmelo Anthony.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">With that bucket, <a href="https://twitter.com/KDTrey5?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KDTrey5</a> becomes the men's all-time leading scorer in Team USA <a href="https://twitter.com/Olympics?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Olympics</a> history, passing <a href="https://twitter.com/carmeloanthony?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@carmeloanthony</a> ??<br><br>Is KD the best scorer in history? ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tokyo2020?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Tokyo2020</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Basketball?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Basketball</a> <a href="https://t.co/gUvHrkGGCQ">pic.twitter.com/gUvHrkGGCQ</a></p>— FIBA | #Basketball #Tokyo2020 (@FIBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/FIBA/status/1421447203432714240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 31, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Durant’s offensive arsenal is one of the best we have ever seen in basketball. Period. He can score in such a variety of ways that there really is no way to stop him. All you can do is hope to limit his impact.

At 6’10 and with the handles of a guard, KD can initiate offence in transition or in the half court, can create off the dribble, hit the step back, face up over shorter opponents, post up and hit turnarounds, or spot up from long range.

He is also averaging 4.3 assists in this tournament and averaged over 5 dimes per game for Brooklyn this past season, so is just as willing a passer as he is a scorer, making him even tougher to defend.

Matisse Thybulle will spend a lot of time on KD, but if we start the game with the same five as we have over the past few games, it will be up to Nick Kay and Joe Ingles initially to try to slow him down. All you can do is force him into contested shots or throw a double to make him give it up. That will work to some effect, but they have plenty of other offensive weapons such as …

Jayson Tatum: After the group phase, it was actually Tatum who was the leading scorer for this team. He’s been in outstanding form and is another difficult matchup for opposing wings.

Tatum had 14 points against Iran, a team-leading 27 points (10-16 FG) against the Czech Republic and then a complementary 13 points in the quarterfinal win over Spain.

The Celtics All-Star, coming off a career best season in which he averaged 26.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists, is hitting 51.2% from the field in Tokyo and has connected on 11 of his 27 three-point attempts.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For Boston Celtics' fans viewing pleasure ?<br><br>Jayson Tatum is getting it done on both ends.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tokyo2020?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Tokyo2020</a> | <a href="https://t.co/xQBZLallrP">https://t.co/xQBZLallrP</a> <a href="https://t.co/tBFlcXBPKz">pic.twitter.com/tBFlcXBPKz</a></p>— 7Olympics (@7olympics) <a href="https://twitter.com/7olympics/status/1421461680463269890?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 31, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

He’s also a very capable defender, blocking 5 shots in the group phase and at 6’8, can play as a big three or a small-ball four at times, which not only makes him a tough cover for opposing defences, but means he can guard multiple positions defensively.

Tatum, still just 23 years old, has a very mature game and doesn’t get rattled. He recognises when to attack the rim, when to create for others and when to allow others to create for him. He works hard defensively and makes for a great tandem with Durant.

Gregg Popovich tends to stagger their minutes after the opening quarter, which will keep the Boomers’ defence on their toes.

Jrue Holiday: Fresh off his first NBA Championship with the Milwaukee Bucks, Holiday joined the rest of Team USA in Tokyo along with Khris Middleton and Devin Booker, having missed all of their preparations in Las Vegas.

But Holiday has slotted into this group beautifully and moved into the starting line-up after their opening game loss to France; a game in which he was the team high scorer with 18 points.

Since then, Jrue has embraced his role as the primary on-ball defender and secondary ballhandler or playmaker alongside Damian Lillard. Holiday will undoubtedly start on Patty Mills and look to lock him up.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jrue steal. Giannis slam. ?<br><br>Just WOW.<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/Bucks?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Bucks</a>)<a href="https://t.co/vlmB7cElqG">pic.twitter.com/vlmB7cElqG</a></p>— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ/status/1416608669681164290?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In his first Olympics, he’s excelled in his role, perhaps drawing inspiration from wife Lauren, who played soccer for USA at the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, winning Gold at both events.

Holiday is averaging 12.3 points (52.9 FG%, 50.0 3FG%), 4.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals. He’s also blocked 3 shots in their four games.

At 6’3 and 205lb (92kg), he has the size to bother Mills, contest his shots and stay in front of him. On the other end, he’ll shoot when open, but is just as happy to push in transition and create for others.

Damian Lillard: One player who Holiday will likely be looking for is Damian Lillard. The talented Portland Trailblazers star is a scoring point guard with ridiculous range on his jump shot.

Lillard, who just completed his ninth NBA season, has made six All-Star teams, but this is his first action with Team USA in a major tournament. As the starting point guard, he’s been a little inconsistent to-date, but has averaged 3.8 assists per game to go along with his 12.8 points.

He’s hit 14-37 three-point baskets (37.8%) and has made only three two-point baskets and three free-throws in Tokyo, so clearly he’s here to fire away from long range. Speaking of range, Lillard’s may be the most impressive in the NBA. He frequently fires – and hits – from just over the half court line and has to be respected once they’re in the front court.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dame range. ?<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/USABMNT?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#USABMNT</a> vs. Australia on NBC Sports Network & <a href="https://t.co/HbtDcrFgfZ">https://t.co/HbtDcrFgfZ</a>. <a href="https://t.co/ugUvldcCNq">pic.twitter.com/ugUvldcCNq</a></p>— NBA (@NBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1414748908522201092?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 13, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That makes for a tough cover and it will likely be Delly who will start on Lillard, so he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Lillard, now 30, is coming off his two best seasons and is clearly in the prime of his career. And while he’s still adjusting to the FIBA game, his ability to get hot makes him a scoring threat, from basically anywhere once he’s in the arena.

Averaging 7.4 assists over his last three NBA seasons, he is also a wonderful playmaker and, in this team’s read and react offence, he can do a lot of damage if given space to operate. It will be important for the Boomers defence to identify Lillard and Durant ahead of everyone else in transition and in the half court, to make sure they don’t end up with easy, wide-open looks.

The X-Factors

Zach LaVine: In the past, LaVine has been brushed as selfish, not a winner, good stats on a bad team, etc, etc. Since being drafted by Minnesota in 2014 and dealt to Chicago in the Jimmy Butler trade in 2017, it’s taken him a while to find his way, to find a coach he gels with and to become a leader on the floor.

We saw that in droves last season though as his game matured and so did his attitude and mindset. It resulted in a career year, his first All-Star appearance and if all breaks right for him this week, a potential max contract extension could be coming his way.

As far as his role on Team USA goes, the dynamic shooting guard has been primarily used in a sixth man capacity where he can come in off the bench and keep the offence ticking over. It’s worked.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Zach LaVine was in his BAG.<br><br>40 points | 15-20 FG | 7-12 threes <a href="https://t.co/DDChpeBWOJ">pic.twitter.com/DDChpeBWOJ</a></p>— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) <a href="https://twitter.com/chicagobulls/status/1372016631094902787?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

LaVine is averaging 11 points per game overall and 12 points in the three games since he was moved to the bench. He’s hitting exactly 50% from three-point range, 57.7% overall from the field, is a perfect 5-5 on FTs and has 18 assists to just 1 turnover across Team USA’s four games.

Yes, you can say he’s playing a very mature game right now.

"I just want my respect, that's the main thing," LaVine said Monday ahead of their quarterfinal game when asked about his NBA contract situation.

"I outplayed my contract. I've been very loyal to Chicago. I like Chicago. I just want my respect. If that's now or later, it's something we've got to work out internally."

The Boomers will need to show him respect when they face him. LaVine may be the most athletic player on the court when these two teams meet and couple that with his ability to shoot and pass, well it makes for an extremely tough cover.

He has the ability to catch fire as we’ve seen in the NBA many times, so is certainly someone the Boomers will need to keep in front of them, contest his shots and not let him blow by where the help has to recover too often. If he doesn’t get going early, he tends to be less aggressive as the game goes on, so that could work in the Boomers’ favour.

Bam Adebayo: Team USA is not a big team. Sure, Durant is 6’10, but they are not stacked with traditional bigs like other teams in Tokyo.

Bam Adebayo is their starting five man and he’s 6’9. He is also an elite rim runner, shot blocker and defender, with active hands, a strong ability to finish in the paint and is a much-improved free-throw shooter.

Adebayo is a key member of the Miami Heat and was named an All-Star in the 2019-20 season – his third in the league. This past season, he was considered one of the main snubs as he improved his scoring and shooting to new career levels, while maintaining the rest of his production.

In any event, he’s a key part of this collection of stars for Team USA and is really their only traditional big who plays consistent rotation minutes. Adebayo is a mobile, athletic big who finishes in transition or in the half court, has a solid post game, can face up out to about 18 feet and also moves the ball well.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ANOTHER LOOK AT BAM ADEBAYO'S INCREDIBLE GAME-WINNING BLOCK! <a href="https://t.co/RCzQ7FdLDR">pic.twitter.com/RCzQ7FdLDR</a></p>— NBA (@NBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1306045175089770496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

But his key contribution to this team is defensively. Bam is a great shot blocker, but also just as adept at picking off passing lanes to generate transition opportunities. He’s registered 4 blocks and 7 steals so far in Tokyo, as well as 7 assists and only 4 turnovers.

He keeps possessions alive with 2 offensive boards per game and is averaging 7.3 points and 5 rebounds so far. He is also a net +44 when on the court.

Given his mobility and athleticism, he will be a tough cover for Landale and Kay, plus Duop Reath at times, but is not someone who is going to go out and score 25 points. The key to limiting his impact is to be aggressive against him offensively (he can get into foul trouble, although been solid in Tokyo), box him out to keep him off the o-boards and make sure you’re careful when passing with him in the vicinity.

Defensively, play him straight up, contest his shots and when necessary, put him on the line. He’s made just 3-6 FTs in Tokyo and while he improved to nearly 80% this past NBA season, he’s a career 73.8% FT shooter, so make him earn them if needed.

Boomers Keys to the Game

As clichéd as it sounds, the key to this game for the Boomers is execution. Execution, execution, execution.

We know this team is talented on paper. We know they have one of the best scorers in the world on their team. We know they can shoot, they’re athletic and mobile, and we know they’ve improved as a group as this tournament has gone on.

But we also know that they’re beatable. As little stock as we put into warm-up games, the Boomers did still beat this team. Every single player on this Boomers roster was a part of that win and has that belief that they can do it again.

The Boomers beat them in 2019 at Marvel Stadium (yes, a different roster) and they beat them last month in Las Vegas, so there is no longer any reason to think it cannot be done. Furthermore, France knocked them off in their first game in Tokyo.

But as we’ve seen in the past, the only way to have a chance at doing so is to execute on both ends of the floor.

As with Argentina, this US team is not a tall group. When Adebayo sits, they typically go with Draymond Green (6’7) as a small-ball five while JaVale McGee and Jerami Grant play sparingly. They are athletic though and do block a lot of shots, so we won’t be changing up our offence to try to attack the rim any more than we have in other games.

Team USA also like to switch on picks defensively. This can create mismatches at times; something guys like Mills, Ingles and Landale can take advantage of. We have to be careful not to force things in those situations, but still aggressively take those chances when they come.

However, the strength of the Boomers’ offence is ball movement and player movement off the ball. This was evident against Argentina when we went on that run. Good execution of our sets, as well as at times in read and react situations, leads to good shots. If we look after the ball and get enough good shots, we can run up some decent offensive numbers.

We’re shooting over 46% on the tournament from the field and exactly 40% from three-point range. We’ve also made 82% of our free throws, so staying aggressive will be important.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? THROW IT DOWN DANTE!!! ?<br><br>Challenging Exum at the rim was not a good idea ?<br><br>Broadcast Partner - <a href="https://twitter.com/NAB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NAB</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tokyo2020?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Tokyo2020</a> <a href="https://t.co/lzJZNnh4pW">pic.twitter.com/lzJZNnh4pW</a></p>— 7Olympics (@7olympics) <a href="https://twitter.com/7olympics/status/1422548399715409920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 3, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Be mindful though that Team USA leads the tournament in both FG% (50.5) and 3FG% (42.8), so it is defensively where this game will be won or lost.

We saw what the Boomers are capable of when firing on that end of the floor against Argentina. After a sub-par first quarter, giving up 22 points, we held them to just 37 points the rest of the way. They shot just 34% from the field and 27% from deep, while only attempting 6 free throws. That resulted in a 25-0 run at one point. It was elite defence any way you slice it and that kind of endeavour, communication and focus will be needed against the Americans.

In the warm-up game in Las Vegas against Team USA, they shot 46.2% from the field, but we controlled the boards to limit their second chance opportunities, didn’t put them on the line too much (12 attempts) and looked after the ball to slow their transition game. Those will all be keys tomorrow to have a chance.

We’ve seen in Tokyo that when we play honest, straight up defence, with excellent communication, solid help and some extended ball pressure, good things happen. It won’t be as easy against this team, but the same theory applies.

Obviously, we need to be especially mindful of Durant, Lillard and also LaVine at times, as if we let them get going, it could be a long afternoon. We may want to throw a zone on occasion to junk it up a little and keep them guessing, but for the most part, this just comes down to playing our game, competing on the boards and working together.

That’s what has gotten us to this point – undefeated heading into a semi-final – and that’s what is going to give us a shot at making history and winning through to our first Men’s Gold Medal Game and a guaranteed spot on the podium.

A final word from Patty Mills on facing Team USA:

“It’s been a long couple of years to be back to this point. For us to be the best, we have to beat the best and we have that opportunity in front of us now to do that. This is a challenge we have prepared for, for a long time. There is only one thing we are focused on and we have to get it done. Tonight showed the belief in each individual in our team and how tight this group is."

That belief in each other and the culture of this group will need to be drawn upon for this game. It’s one the reasons that culture is so important to this group, so that in moments like this, they can come together for a singular goal with a singular purpose.

#GVO