World Cup: Analysing the Boomers' Draw

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

The time for guessing is over. The Boomers now know what lies ahead following FIBA’s World Cup Draw last Saturday night.

As one of four 'one' seeds, there were several teams that could not end up in the same group as Australia. Firstly, the host nation of the Finals – the Philippines. Next was the number one ranked team in the FIBA Men’s rankings, Spain. And finally, the second ranked team in the world, the United States. Australia is ranked third for reference.

In addition, each of the host nations got to select a ‘preferred’ team that will play in their country for the opening round. The Philippines selected USA, Japan selected Slovenia, while Indonesia selected Canada.

Australia was drawn into Group E to be based in Okinawa, Japan and Japan, Germany and Finland were then drawn to join them.

The Boomers will open against Finland on August 25, face Germany on August 27 and then hosts Japan on August 29.

So just how will the Boomers fare in that group? Is this favourable, or a potentially dangerous path on their quest to getting back on the podium and trying to go one or two spots better than they did in Tokyo? Let’s take a look.

Group E Analysis

It would be easy to look at the rankings of each of the other teams in the group and assume that Australia will cruise through to the second round. Germany is ranked 11th, Finland 24th, with Japan ranked 36th, and the top two from each group advances.

However, each of these teams presents a different challenge for the Boomers.

Germany
A team that was also in the Boomers’ group in Tokyo, this was no easy out there, and will not be in Okinawa either. Germany is a team that has a lot of established and emerging talent.

In Tokyo, where they finished eighth, they were headlined by Europe based talent in the likes of veterans Johannes Voigtmann, Maodo Lo and Johannes Thiemann, along with Orlando Magic reserve Mo Wagner, who played a supporting role off the bench. The team also boasted former NBA player Isaac Bonga and former NCAA Champion with UConn, Niels Giffey.

However, they have the ability to add several NBA names for the World Cup starting with Wagner’s brother, Franz, who is an emerging talent also with the Orlando Magic and from the same draft class as Josh Giddey. Also available could be Los Angeles Lakers reserve guard Dennis Schröder, veteran reserve centre Daniel Theis, of the Indiana Pacers, Dallas Mavericks forward Maxi Kleber and New York Knicks reserve big Isaiah Hartenstein.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Kia NBA Rookies of the Month for December! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/KiaROTM?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#KiaROTM</a> <br><br>West: Josh Giddey (<a href="https://twitter.com/okcthunder?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@okcthunder</a>)<br>East: Franz Wagner (<a href="https://twitter.com/OrlandoMagic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OrlandoMagic</a>) <a href="https://t.co/1X3WJ3W9is">pic.twitter.com/1X3WJ3W9is</a></p>— NBA (@NBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1478441751501225990?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That’s potentially six current NBA players, all of whom were regular rotation players this past season, with the exception of Theis due to injury.

The Boomers, by contrast, boasted 11 NBA players, with five regular rotation players in Josh Giddey, Joe Ingles, Josh Green and Matisse Thybulle. Patty Mills, Jock Landale, Dyson Daniels and Matthew Dellavedova played, but were not always a regular part of their team’s rotations, while Jack White was on a two-way contract and Xavier Cooks only joined Washington late in the season. Then there's the uncertainty around Ben Simmons, who despite not being named in the initial squad, will be hoping to prove his fitness for a late call-up.

My point is, Germany, who finished third at the 2022 Eurobasket, largely behind Schröder and Franz Wagner, could potentially be stacked and supplemented by very strong EuroLeague and Bundesliga talent, making them a team to be very wary of.

Finland
If you don’t think of Finland as a basketball powerhouse, well historically you may have been right, but that has changed recently. Behind emerging talent, Lauri Markkanen, Finland made a run to the quarter finals at last year’s EuroBasket, before falling to eventual champion Spain. Markkanen was the second-leading scorer of the tournament, only behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Since then, Markkanen has only gotten better. He was traded to the Utah Jazz in September on the eve of EuroBasket and found a home there. Markkanen emerged as the NBA’s Most Improved Player for the 2022/23 season and was named an NBA All-Star for the first time.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lauri Markkanen dropped 43 PTS and crazy dunks against Croatia ? ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EuroBasket?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#EuroBasket</a> <a href="https://t.co/E7VYWvjjdZ">pic.twitter.com/E7VYWvjjdZ</a></p>— FIBA (@FIBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/FIBA/status/1569002918241517569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

While Finland has no other NBA players currently, they do have another potential one, in Miro Little. Little, a 6’4” guard committed to Baylor University, recently played in the Nike Hoop Summit and participated in EuroBasket last year as an 18-year-old. He has some buzz as a late first round pick in 2024, should he declare.

The rest of their talent pool is located in Europe, but they are one of those groups that plays very well together, with an established core that has a lot of collective experience. Think Slovenia in Tokyo, built around Luka Doncic and a bunch of European-based veterans.

Finland will play through Markkanen as Slovenia did through Doncic, and Markkanen alone will make them a tough out, especially with the Boomers having no natural matchup for him. You could expect to see the likes of fellow SIG Sports clients Landale and White, or possibly Cooks or Simmons try to slow him down, with some help from Thybulle, but it won’t be easy.

Finland is poised, in what will their third major FIBA tournament (2014 FIBA World Cup and 1964 Olympic Games), to make some noise.

Japan
Never underestimate playing against a host nation during a major tournament. Japan will be in front of their home fans in Okinawa and while this may have had a better impact if the group phase was held in Tokyo or Osaka, Japan will still get a nice boost which will make playing them just that little bit tougher.

Add to that, the fact that their team from Tokyo in 2021 (finishing eleventh) boasted NBA players in Rui Hachimura (Los Angeles Lakers) and Yuta Watanabe (Brooklyn Nets), who have both improved since then, and this Japanese team is not to be underestimated.

Japan failed to win a game in Tokyo, which was disappointing, but they finished World Cup qualifying as the third best team in Group F behind Australia and China, so could cause some upsets.

They also had a strong showing at the 2022 FIBA Asia Cup, losing to the Boomers in the quarter finals. Watanabe was at the tournament, but did not play in that game.

“We will focus on fast, team basketball and we will never give up,” Japan’s Head Coach Tom Hovasse said after the draw last week.

“We believe in our style of basketball, we believe in each other, and we will continue to be better every day.”

Japan also could feature exciting prospect Keisei Tominaga who had some huge games at the Asia Cup last year, including 33 points (eight threes) against Australia in the quarter-final. Tominaga (aka the ‘Japanese Steph Curry’) has just completed his junior season at the University of Nebraska.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Keisei Tominaga was on ?<br><br>The Japanese guard had 33 points with 8 three-pointers, including this logo shot ?<br><br>But one-man show wasn't enough to overcome Australia in the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FIBAAsiaCup?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FIBAAsiaCup</a> semi-final ??<a href="https://twitter.com/FIBAAsiaCup?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FIBAAsiaCup</a> x <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AkatsukiFive?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AkatsukiFive</a> <a href="https://t.co/k0bEpMzpnv">pic.twitter.com/k0bEpMzpnv</a></p>— FIBA (@FIBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/FIBA/status/1550098244713287687?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 21, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Of course, Japan will likely also boast former NBL players in Yudai Baba (Melbourne United) and Makoto Hiejima (Brisbane Bullets), giving them extra firepower on the wing. Their struggle though, will be their size. In Tokyo their tallest player was 6’9”, meaning they could face some serious size mismatches from the likes of Aussie Bigs in Landale, Nick Kay, Duop Reath, Ben Simmons or Thon Maker, depending on who makes the final roster.

Australia's extended squad
Speaking of which, it is really difficult to predict who will make the final 12-man Boomers roster this year. Looking at the Tokyo roster, several names come to mind to be instantly added to the mix that were not there last time around ... think Giddey, Daniels, White, Simmons (if fit) and Cooks.

In addition, some emerging and established NBL talents like Will McDowell-White, Sam Froling and Keanu Pinder could all get a look, along with offshore talent like Maker.

If all of those names make themselves available for selection in addition to the 12 that were in Tokyo in 2021, this may be the most talented group of Boomers we’ve ever had to select from and the most competitive to make. Good luck Goorj!

Check out the extended squad below:
Xavier Cooks (Washington Wizards)
Dyson Daniels (New Orleans Pelicans)
Matthew Dellavedova (Sacramento Kings)
Dante Exum (Partizan Belgrade)
Sam Froling (Illawarra Hawks)
Josh Giddey (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Chris Goulding (Melbourne United)
Josh Green (Dallas Mavericks)
Joe Ingles (Milwaukee Bucks)
Nick Kay (Shimane Susanoo Magic)
Jock Landale (Phoenix Suns)
Thon Maker (Fujian Sturgeons)
Will McDowell-White (New Zealand Breakers)
Patty Mills (Brooklyn Nets)
Keanu Pinder (Perth Wildcats)
Duop Reath (Al Riyadi Club Beirut)
Matisse Thybulle (Portland Trailblazers)
Jack White (Denver Nuggets)

Other NBL Players
The Boomers aren’t the only nation that will boast NBL talent, with the New Zealand Tall Blacks securing their spot out of Asian qualifying, by topping their group. While the big question always centres around whether Steven Adams will finally participate in a major tournament, the Tall Blacks are capable of putting together a very competitive roster around the likes of Shea Ili, Corey and Tai Webster, Reuben Te Rangi, offshore based players in Yanni Wetzell, Finn Delany and Isaac Fotu, and emerging talent Sam Waardenburg.

Unfortunately for the Tall Blacks and Head Coach Pero Cameron, they have received a horrendous draw for the World Cup. Landing in Group C, they will face USA, Greece and Jordan and be based in Manila. With only the top two from each group advancing, New Zealand is going to need some luck to get past Greece and move to the second round.

Finally, the feel-good story of FIBA World Cup Qualifying had to be South Sudan qualifying out of Africa to make their first major FIBA tournament. Having only joined FIBA in 2013 after being founded as nation in 2011, to qualify for the World Cup was a massive accomplishment.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">?? WORLD CUP! WORLD CUP! WORLD CUP!<br><br>Scenes in South Sudan locker room after they made the country proud ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FIBAWC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FIBAWC</a> x <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WinForSouthSudan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WinForSouthSudan</a> ?? <a href="https://t.co/nJB4lFpEpX">pic.twitter.com/nJB4lFpEpX</a></p>— FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 ? (@FIBAWC) <a href="https://twitter.com/FIBAWC/status/1629197111941304320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 24, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That team was littered with current and former NBL names in Majok Deng, Bul Kuol, Sunday Dech, Deng Deng, Deng Acuoth, Jackson Makoi, Kuany Kuany and Jo Lual-Acuil.

South Sudan was drawn in Group B to be based in Manila. They will face Serbia, China and Puerto Rico. It will be a tough ask, but if all of those names are available, it won’t be impossible for the Bright Stars to continue their Cinderella run and advance out of their group.

The FIBA World Cup tips off on 25 August 2023 with eight games on tap.