Round 4 Buy, Hold, Sell, Captain: SuperCoach NBL Classic

It's impossible, right? Impossible.

But without doubt, the 38 per cent of SuperCoaches with Bryce Cotton ($473,900) as their starting guard are nervous – 150 SuperCoaches have already made a move on the six-time MVP, trading him out by 3pm today.

Why are we even talking about it? Well, Cotton's SuperCoach NBL average has slipped to 36.2 per game (181 points in five games), and SuperCoaches expecting a Bryce bonanza in Round 3 with a double-header at Illawarra and at home to the New Zealand Breakers felt all kinds of pain.

He was already down a hundred bucks from his $473,900 starting price after Round 2 and has taken another $40.8K haircut today.

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Adelaide has rotation problems without Isaac Humphries ($265,300), Flynn Cameron ($241,700) and Bul Kuol ($156,100); every scout now has the plan: face-guard Bryce, make him give it up, and let others beat you.

The fact is, the data says sell, but it's Bryce Cotton – nine-time NBL scoring champion and the second-greatest player in NBL history. Brutal.

Only four clubs play twice in Round 4: Adelaide, Cairns, Illawarra and Melbourne. Everyone else plays once.

Doubles from Round 4 to Round 10: Illawarra 5, Melbourne 4, Cairns 4, Brisbane 4, NZ 4, Sydney 4, Tasmania 3, Perth 3, SE Melbourne 3, Adelaide 2.

Buy

Nick Rakocevic ($188,400), now $229,000. 48 a game in Round 3; plays Melbourne and Sydney in Round 4. Half the competition owns him. If you don't have him, he's the trade.

Milton Doyle ($274,700), 37.5 a game in Round 3. He's at Illawarra, which has the most doubles left (five), and only 4.3% own him. The best differential in the game.

Cole Anthony ($300,000), 35.0 average, Round 4 double, four doubles to come.

Josh Oduro ($277,000), 34 a game in Round 3, Round 4 double, 6% owned.

Malique Lewis ($207,900), now $235,900, Round 4 double, four doubles left, 6.4% owned.

Sam Froling ($228,200), 28.5 a game in Round 3 and five doubles left.

Buy now for Round 5: Will Magnay ($269,300) averages 43.2, third-best in the game, and only 7% own him. His price hasn't moved yet. Tasmania plays once in Round 4, then doubles in Round 5.

Cash cows: Dakota Mathias ($145,200), 24.5 average, under 1% owned. Jonah Bolden ($133,600), now $141,100, Round 4 double. Makuach Maluach ($134,500), 19.3 average.

Hold

Parker Jackson-Cartwright ($405,200). Single in Round 4, but he averages 53.4 with four doubles still to come. Never sell.

Bryce Cotton ($473,900). 22.5 a game in Round 3's double, the worst return per dollar of any premium, owned by 39%. Adelaide doubles in Round 4 and then not again until Round 7. Hold for Round 4, but ... ooft.

Kendric Davis ($436,000) and Arnas Velička ($277,000). Both single in Round 4; both average 43+. Brisbane has four doubles from Round 6.

Kristian Doolittle ($317,500), 44 in Round 3. Perth doubles in Rounds 7, 8 and 9.

Keanu Pinder ($300,000), 36 a game in Round 3, Round 4 double.

Dash Daniels ($115,000), now $159,200, owned by half the game.

Anthony Dell'Orso ($100,000), now $138,300.

Ben Gold ($69,000), 41% owned. All three are still making money.

Sell

Sam Mennenga ($303,100), now $285,700 and falling, 24.4 average, single in Round 4, 26% owned.

Luke Travers ($292,900), 22.2 average, 14% owned. Melbourne's double doesn't change his output.

Rookies who haven't fired: Hunter Goodrick ($69,000), 4.0 average, 34% owned. Sunday Dech ($69,000), 6.0 average, 27% owned. Reuben Te Rangi ($97,100), 6.0 average, 14% owned.

Injured and still owned: Flynn Cameron (out until Round 5, 4.5% owned) and Jo Lual-Acuil Jr ($318,100) (review in three weeks, 4.4%). Shaun Bruce ($76,500) (18% owned) is due back in Round 4, so check Cairns' team sheet before you sell him.

Captain

- Rakocevic: 48 a game in Round 3, and 39.4 average.
- Cole Anthony: 35.0 average, with games Wednesday and Saturday.
- Milton Doyle: 37.5 a game in Round 3.
- Keanu Pinder: 36 a game in Round 3.