R15 Preview: New Zealand Breakers vs Cairns Taipans

Friday, April 23, 2021

Levi Randolph's red-hot form has New Zealand ready to pounce, but Cairns' supporting cast has shown they've got some tricks in their bag too.

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 23 April

Where: Silverdome, Launceston

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
New Zealand 76 (Abercrombie 20, T Webster 16, Iverson 15) d Cairns 73 (Oliver 19, Machado 14, King 12), Round 9, John Cain Arena, Melbourne

This NBL Cup clash was most memorable for Tom Abercrombie’s miracle, buzzer-beating triple to win it, but the roller-coaster leading up to that was almost as thrilling. The Breakers peeled off a 24-6 tear over the final eight minutes of the opening term to blow the game open, and their lead reached 19 in the third period. But Jordan Ngatai and Mojave King turned the tide, then Scott Machado broke free of Abercrombie’s shackles in the final stanza and tied up scores with 40 seconds to play, setting the scene for Tom’s implausible play.

The now
New Zealand’s win in Perth was almost as improbable, ignoring a rabid Red Army to surge from 13 down in the third term to post a stunning five-point win. While that was just the Breakers’ third win in their past 10 games, it marked two on the trot after their destruction of the Bullets, and their previous five games had been decided by single figures. At 7-14 they still need a lot to go right to reach the playoffs, but with close to a full roster and a run of seven home games to finish the season, they are close enough if brilliant enough.

Cairns are only 2.5 games behind NZ, and 10 of their past 12 games have been decided by 10 points or less, but any faint hopes of post-season action flew out with Cam Oliver during the week, the star big man focusing on family ahead of the birth of his third child with the full support of the club. While the Taipans acted quickly to sign Venky Jois as a replacement, no one in the NBL can take Space Cam’s spot, and with last season’s three import amigos now down to one, it threatens to place a huge burden on the already overworked Machado.

The stats

- In his past three games, Oliver averaged a remarkable 26.3ppg at 53 per cent and 15.7 rebounds, adding 8 assists, 3 blocks and 3 steals for good measure

- In Cairns’ current four-game skid, Machado has averaged 12.5ppg and 5.5apg, shooting 36 per cent from the field and 22 per cent from range. In Taipans wins he averages 20.4ppg and 7.8apg, shooting 45 per cent and 36 per cent

- New Zealand have the league’s highest turnover percentage and leak 12.9 per game. In their loss to Cairns they lost points from turnovers 13-1, but in their two wins claimed that category 28-19

- The Breakers have kept six of their past seven opponents to 85 points or less, allowing just 6.5 made three-pointers in those games. Cairns lead the league with 10.5 triples per game

The key men

Tom Abercrombie – The only key stat Abercrombie ranks in the Breakers’ top four is minutes, where he leads the way with 33.9 per game. That’s because he is the head of New Zealand’s defensive snake, taking on the best opposition guard each week, from Byrce Cotton to Nathan Sobey to Scott Machado.

In these teams’ first two match-ups, Machado’s scoring was limited, but he dished a total of 26 assists. However, in NZ’s Round 9 win, he helped limit the Taipans’ point god to 14 points at 39 per cent, 6 assists and 5 turnovers. Terrific Tom can expect an array of ball-screens on Friday in what should be another great duel.

Jordan Ngatai – New Zealand basketball fans would be getting great joy from watching Ngatai break-out this season, albeit wishing it were in Breakers colours. If they are feeling a little nostalgic watching him shoot the rock, it’s surely because his laconic lefty style is a pure throwback to the Reefton kid, Phill Jones.

His numbers over the past five games have been a bit Jones-like too, averaging 13.6 points at 55 per cent and 18-of-33 from distance. The Taipans will need more of that if they are to fill the huge offensive hole left by Oliver, while Ngatai has also shown he’s the best qualified Snake to take Cam’s place on the highlight reel.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It's late, but an Air Jordan sighting is an Air Jordan sighting ??<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/ygXlb2sSgh">pic.twitter.com/ygXlb2sSgh</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1372886644580261891?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jordan Ngatai with the THREE and the ENERGY! ? <a href="https://t.co/tA5HoJ2Pbj">pic.twitter.com/tA5HoJ2Pbj</a></p>— Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1383379511799017477?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The quotes

For much of this season, scoring hasn’t really been a thing for the New Zealand Breakers.

At first, with Lamar Patterson and the Webster brothers in the line-up, there weren’t enough Wilsons to go around.

Then as injury struck down one then two of that prolific trio, the options dried up.

Finn Delany has stepped up, Tom Abercrombie’s last three games have shown some of his perimeter form of old, but that genuine offensive star power was missing.

Enter Levi Rudolph.

The new import has scored 43 points in his past 56 minutes, and destroyed the Wildcats for 23 points at 69 per cent and 3 dimes in what was undoubtedly a match-winning performance.

“Definitely Levi is a major difference-maker for us,” coach Dan Shamir said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">STEP ? SPLASH.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/BVPUYxgnNy">pic.twitter.com/BVPUYxgnNy</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1383700845737308169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We struggled this year with everything that happened with Lamar. We designed a lot based on what everyone expected Lamar to be, we replaced him with Levi, we have him also on a long-term basis where we have a deal for him for the future with us.

“A great piece, and today he had a great game, made his mid-range shots, made some amazing passes, but the best thing about him is he is just a very good, solid player all across the board. He defends, gets rebounds, makes shots, and we needed it so much.”

Randolph’s ability to put the ball in the hole, and do it predictably within the team system, has greatly helped the Breakers’ defence too, and their past three games have allowed opponents just 72, 71 and 78 points in regulation.

“The main thing that jumps out at the stat sheet is a phenomenal offensive rebounding team, rebounding usually 35 per cent of their rebounds, today only with five,” coach Shamir said post-game in Perth.

“Overall I think we played solid, and defended. Five days ago we kept Perth, who are the most efficient team in the NBL, to 37 per cent from the floor. That was great.

“Both games were great, this one was also a huge one, they missed a few shots, we made a few big plays, it was a close game, we got the win.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">CLUTCH T?M!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/heTaWTyP5H">pic.twitter.com/heTaWTyP5H</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1383705619962601473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That win was built largely on keeping Bryce Cotton to 12 points at 23 per cent, Abercrombie again leading the defensive charge.

“We had great team effort on defence. We were playing an extremely talented player in Bryce Cotton, who has counters for a lot of things that everybody throws at him, and I think we did a decent job the last game and he ended up with 32 points, just because he’s good,” Shamir said.

“Tom is in charge of that, he is on the opponents key player, invests a lot of energy and a lot of his IQ in preparing for opponents, and once again he made it hard for him.”

It will be Machado receiving that treatment on Friday night, and with Cam Oliver departed for the rest of the season, it appears a case of stop Scott, stop the Snakes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">More like Tad Dufel-DIMER, AMIRITE?!<br><br>Tad Dufelmeier has been dropping some serious dimes for the <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CairnsTaipans</a> in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> ??? <a href="https://t.co/hAvpdaADDD">pic.twitter.com/hAvpdaADDD</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1384376398932897792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

However, the outstanding and surprising form of players like Tad Dufelmeier and Jordan Ngatai has buoyed coach Mike Kelly.

“Tad, Jordan Ngatai, Jarrod Kenny’s been really good in his minutes, George Blagojevic was really good tonight, we’ve got guys who are stepping up into the shoes of Kouat and Majok, trying to fill those shoes and doing a good job,” he said.

“Tad’s been special, taken his opportunity with both hands and it’s been fun to see.”