R11 Preview: SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers

Sunday, February 13, 2022

Josh Magette and the JackJumpers are the hottest team in town, but Mitch Creek and SE Melbourne are desperate after dropping two of their past three.

When: 1pm (AEDT), Sunday 13 February, 2022

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: Fox Sports; Kayo; 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN (delayed); Sky Sports NZ

Who won the last time?
South East Melbourne 76 (Creek 21, Qi 18, Adnam 11) d Tasmania 63 (Steindl 16, Magnay 10) – Round 8, MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

The JackJumpers were worried about a slow start after their length COVID lay-off, but that wasn’t the issue. After jumping to a 19-11 lead in under seven minutes, the hosts only scored another 44 points in 33 minutes, looking as if they were running through mud. The Phoenix had been through that the week before in Brisbane, but a 32-point third term blew out some cobwebs and blew out the Tasmanians in what was an otherwise dour affair.

What happened last start?

There was no slow start in Melbourne, racing to a 15-point edge early in the second term. The inevitable run came, but somehow Tassie wrenched back control, Josh Magette continuing his masterful run of form, Josh Adams making big shots and Jack McVeigh nailing the sealer. The only downside was the knee issue that now has Will Magnay sidelined.

The issues for South East Melbourne were shooting the ball and defending the Kings’ frontcourt. Chase Buford’s men shot 50-40-86 in a high-quality display, as Xavier Cooks and Jarell Martin had their way inside and out, while the Phoenix managed just 35-25-86, only the offensive rebounding work of Mitch Creek, Zhou Qi and Ryan Broekhoff keeping them close.

Who’s in form?

Tasmania’s bench – The unheralded JackJumpers reserves smashed their Melbourne counterparts 32-11 as MiKyle McIntosh got the party started, then Sam McDaniel and Fabijan Krslovic played key roles. Tasmania’s bench might be the most productive in the league right now, even with Clint Steindl averaging just 3.0ppg on 2/15 from deep in the past four.

Ryan Broekhoff – Rowdy has quietly averaged 14.4 points and 8.6 rebounds across his past five outings despite shooting 8/23 from range, his defence and rebounding a big part of South East Melbourne’s improvement in those areas. Given his 13/24 two-point shooting and 22/25 free throws in that span, don’t be surprised if defensive stud Matt Kenyon gets this assignment.

Who needs to be?

Jarred Bairstow & MiKyle McIntosh – There’s every chance Bairstow will start, as he did New Year’s Day, to keep the rest of the rotations steady. The other Bear is +23 in 60 minutes this season, and was +115 in 468 minutes in Perth last season, the fourth-best per-minute differential on the team. This guy is rock-solid, but will have his work cut out with Zhou Qi.

Teams have had success going small and forcing Qi to the perimeter, and McIntosh could be the man for that job. Last week in Melbourne, Scott Roth used the old-fashioned NBA clear-out, his big import handling the rock and all four teammates on the other side of the floor. The result was 11 points in four minutes across quarter-time that blew the game open.

Kyle Adnam & Lachlan Barker – The loss of Magnay, who is constantly involved in high screening action, does hurt the JJs, but Magette will take any screen he can get. While Adnam has worked hard on his defence, the reality is Tasmania will target he and the raw Barker constantly. That duo needs to milk their middle ball-screen when it’s their turn.

The JackJumpers will also target Qi after his indecisive defensive display against the mobile Kings. With McIntosh and Krslovic able to pop and connect, South East Melbourne will mix up their defences when Zhou is on show, testing whether the JJs shooters are still hot. Offensively, Qi had 18 at 62 per cent last time in Tassie, he must be a constant roll-out option.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">?.<a href="https://twitter.com/barker_lachlan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@barker_lachlan</a> making the most of his first <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NBL</a> start with 6?? points so far.<br><br>? Tune in live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/flATlawxs2">pic.twitter.com/flATlawxs2</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1491696219340492804?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s statting up?

- JackJumpers bench have outscored their opponents 63-29 in past three games. They now rank first in scoring and steals, and second in rebounds and o-boards behind only Melbourne

- In Round 8, Tasmania won bench scoring 35-24, but the Phoenix starters outscored their counterparts 52-28. South East Melbourne’s first five are +57 this season, the second-biggest differential behind United

- In their past three games the Phoenix have averaged 6 triples at 23 per cent. Prior to that they were hitting 9.3 at 35 per cent

- In their past three games the JackJumpers have averaged 12.7 triples at 40 per cent. Prior to that they were hitting 7.7 at 26 per cent

Who’s matching up?

Mitch Creek v Jack McVeigh – Two old mates reunite in a crucial battle. McVeigh’s three-point game has finally clicked, nailed 7/15 in his past three games and scoring exactly 17 points in each to go with 5.3rpg. The 51 points Jack has dropped in the past three outings is the same total as his first nine games, with the shooting percentage rising from 42 to 55.

Creek’s outside game has unclicked, making 2/16 in his past three games after hitting at 49 per cent across the opening eight. He’s still produced 20ppg, 6.0rpg and 3.3apg in that span and is the NBL’s third-leading scorer in the open floor. He had 11 points and 3 assists in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock in Round 8, so McVeigh and Co need to wall up fast with no Magnay behind them.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We know who we’d pick ?<br><br>? for tomorrow ?? <a href="https://t.co/qQpavDn2lS">https://t.co/qQpavDn2lS</a> <a href="https://t.co/Qxes8AxBKy">pic.twitter.com/Qxes8AxBKy</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1492407929655287810?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s talking the talk?

When MiKyle McIntosh rolled into Tassie and averaged 4.8 points per game at 26 per cent in his first 11 games, it generated plenty of negative talk about the big Canadian, but that was hardly a surprise to his harshest critic.

“Out of all the people that didn’t like the way I was playing, it was myself. I was hardest on myself,” he said.

“I did hear some of it, I try not to focus on it because I've got to focus on my own process, but people have the right to feel how they want to feel.”

He was feeling it against the defending champs last Sunday, scoring 16 points including a burst surrounding quarter-time that changed the game.

NewsCorp scribe Michael Randall wrote that Melbourne United’s defence made McIntosh “look like Michael Jordan”, but in reality it was all the work the JJs import has been putting in behind the scenes.

“I know what I can bring and that’s why I work every day in practice to be that player,” he said.

“It’s just about translating that to the game every single day, and it’s about consistency, it’s not just one game where I come in and do this today, it has to be an every day thing and an every game thing.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">MiKyle McIntosh doing work ?<br><br>The <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JackJumpers</a> forward put up 13 first half points.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> live on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/rk0ofHq4qW">pic.twitter.com/rk0ofHq4qW</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1490187024187355147?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 6, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

While his numbers were more modest two nights earlier in Sydney, McIntosh’s high-energy trapping defence and board work made an impact in that upset victory too.

“Sometimes it’s Jack McVeigh’s night, some nights it’s Josh Adams night, Magette’s night, Will Magnay’s night, it doesn’t matter,” he said.

“We all come in here, we all love each other, we all appreciate each other, it’s not like I want to come in here and score 30, it’s I want to come in here and help the team win.”

For Tasmania to beat the Phoenix on Sunday, McIntosh will need to be a scoring threat, as the absence of Magnay leaves a serious hole in their newly-refined offence.

“My assistant coaches did a fantastic job of breaking things down the last three weeks and being able to pick apart some things we could hang our hat on, stay poised and be in some kind of structure and some kind of shape that we could play out of,” coach Scott Roth revealed.

“It gives us predictable shots, it gives us predictable looks and you can live with that.”

Where early in the season ball movement from side-to-side was the mantra, it often led to non-playmakers with the ball late clock, or it being turfed out to Adams or Magette to invent something against a set defence.

Now, the ball movement has been shortened, with their import guards constantly working off a variety of different screens – usually from Magnay, McVeigh and Krslovic – across the top of the arc that ensure the most dangerous players are always involved.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">He is cooking! <br><br>That’s right we’re watching Masterchef now on Channel 10, as Josh Adams whips up the court with another 3. <br><br>Don’t miss this on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> right now. <a href="https://t.co/tSOX2iUNwh">pic.twitter.com/tSOX2iUNwh</a></p>— Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1490182633938354179?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 6, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

A key to that working has been the ability of their big men to roll to the basket and finish, or pick-and-pop from the arc.

Now, with no Magnay, McIntosh needs to be able to punish help off his screens via his mid-range pull-ups and composed drives.

South East Melbourne is used to slotting players into new spots, having been severely disrupted by COVID the past two weeks, and it has taken its toll.

“It was pretty messy,” assistant coach Judd Flavell said after the tough loss to Sydney.

“Down the stretch I didn’t like how we finished the last quarter, that’s what I meant by messy. We still found a way to score but the offences weren’t initiating flow or any rhythm into the offence.

“A lot of that was probably people playing out of position, but at the same time we had our chances, we've just got to be better down the stretch.”

That need for innovation brought out a zone that allowed them to keep foul-prone bigs Zhou Qi and Brandon Ashley out of on-balls and protecting the paint.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Yeah, Bash!"<br><br>The <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SEMelbPhoenix</a> may have literally shut down the Snakes hopes in this one ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/2NHcuPqfAu">pic.twitter.com/2NHcuPqfAu</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1485923292665970691?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 25, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Against a JackJumpers team yet to consistently prove themselves from long range, that could be a weapon they again deploy.

“Tonight the 1-3-1 zone was of those line-ups we had out there where we were massive,” Flavell said.

“It worked and did its job for the most part, kept us out of foul trouble at that point and we had a great rebounding group out there.”

While Kyle Adnam and coach Simon Mitchell return, Xavier Munford remains sidelined, and against the NBL’s best pressure team the challenge is a big one for the Phoenix.

“Obviously it’s a bit of a spanner in the works, it’s something that’s hard to prepare for, losing players and a coach, but the strength of this team we believe is the depth,” Ryan Broekhoff said.

“We’re competitors, we want to compete, we want to win, we feel like even missing those guys that we’re good enough to beat teams.

“We have the depth, we have the players capable of pulling out wins.”