Preview: Tasmania v New Zealand (Round 12)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Monday 26 December, 2022
Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

New Zealand 84 (Pardon 19, Le’afa 17, Brantley 12, Brown 12) d Tasmania 76 (Kelly 17, Magette 16, McVeigh 11) – Round 7 at Silverdome, Launceston

Tasmania put themselves in a position to end their NBL23 duck against the Breakers, but they got jack happy in the final term and New Zealand got to the foul line, breaking the JJ’s resistance with a 19-9 run in the final eight minutes. Dererk Pardon, Barry Brown Jr and Izayah Le’afa did the damage for the Kiwis, while Rashard Kelly was superb off the bench for Tassie.

What happened last game?

In their last start back in Round 10, the Breakers were thoroughly outplayed by Sydney for three quarters in a lop-sided top-of-the-table clash, but Le’afa and Co turned into the All Blacks in the final period – at least according to Chase Buford – to fall by just seven points. The JackJumpers thrashed an undermanned Illawarra on Thursday to stay inside the top six, but with Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne on a roll, they must keep winning to stay there.

What’s working?

Not playing – When the Breakers spanked South East Melbourne on 1 December they were flying, but home losses to the Wildcats and Kings meant they were then headed to Perth in danger of dropping to third place with an L. However, their New Zealand government-enforced break has seen them return to first spot despite not winning a game for 25 days. Of course, the downside is the lack of playing and training time, and how will Mody Maor’s men handle the ultra-high intensity of an ‘Island Clash’ after 18 days between games?

Jamming the JackJumpers’ jumpers – Tasmania are dropping 11.6 triples at 37 per cent against the rest of the NBL, compared to just six at 22 per cent against New Zealand. The Breakers’ physicality has jammed the JJ’s ball movement and left their gun shooters firing over a hand. Josh Magette is 3/19 from deep in this season series, Jack McVeigh and Kelly 2/11, and Milton Doyle 5/17 in two games. While the Breakers’ defence deserves much credit, Tassie must move the ball proactively and shoot with confidence to break the hoodoo.

What needs stopping?

Foul line grind – While New Zealand are 3-0, this has been a tense and physical season series which the Breakers have broken open with a dominant 75-42 advantage across the trio of final quarters. A big part of that is preventing penetration, Tasmania going 4/26 from deep in those 30 minutes while getting to the foul line just 12 times. In fact, NZ are +21 on free-throw attempts in final quarters of this series, but just +1 over the other 90 minutes.

Dererk Pardon – Did you say free throws? Pardon shot a ridiculous 17 free throws in the teams’ Round 7 meeting, scoring 13 of his 19 points from ‘ones’. Furthermore, 15 of his total came from dump-offs from the Breakers’ guard trio, and Will Magnay playing bigger minutes to show, recover and contest could be a huge factor in negating Pardon. Big Will has registered 25 points, 10 boards and six swats in his past 48 minutes of action.

Who’s matching up?

Milton Doyle v Barry Brown – This pair’s ability to score from broken offence has been critical for their teams’ success. Interestingly, as their three-point shot goes, so do their side’s fortunes. Brown hits 1.3 triples at 23 per cent in New Zealand losses compared to 2.7 treys at 41 per cent in wins. Doyle drops 1.4 trebles at 21 per cent in defeat, well down from his 2.8 at 40 per cent in triumphs. Which team can contest at the arc without giving up driving lanes?

Jack McVeigh v Jarrell Brantley – McVeigh has hit 0.7 treys at 18 per cent in three meetings with the Breakers – down from 2.2 trifectas per game at 39 per cent against all other teams – a key factor in Tasmania scoring 67.7ppg against the Kiwis. At the other end, Brantley has made the sagging defence pay dearly, draining 7/12 from deep to spread the floor. If McVeigh struggles early, expect big minutes from Rashard Kelly, who was outstanding with 17 points at 54 per cent, eight rebounds and two steals in the last Island Clash.

Josh Magette v Izayah Le’afa – The absence of Will McDowell-White is a blow for NZ, putting extra load on Le’afa. Magette answered his coach’s defensive call against Illawarra, constantly putting two hands on the ball carrier to disrupt entry to offence, and if he can do that unchecked again it will limit supply to Brantley and Pardon. The bull-strong Le’afa is no pushover though, he had 17 points and five dimes last time against Tassie, hitting 4/7 from the arc, and dropped 5/6 from deep last start against the Kings en route to 17 points.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Le&#39;afa and McDowell-White let it fly last night ?<br><br>A combined 9/14 from down town <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/yHK49XMV9e">pic.twitter.com/yHK49XMV9e</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1601005118962270208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 9, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

From the outside it looks like the Breakers are flying on top of the NBL ladder, and looking to pick up where they left off before their COVID break.

However, coach Mody Maor knows full well his team is on a two-game losing streak because their defence dropped away against Perth and Sydney.

“We didn’t start the game with the right intensity, we didn’t start the game with the right discipline on defence, we gave up 34 points in the first quarter, it’s not something you can do and win against the defending champions,” Maor said after the Kings game.

“In order to compete on the floor in the way we want to, you have to find the perfect balance between intensity and freedom, we found it and now we've lost it and we need to find that balance.”

While the Breakers haven't had much time on the training court since, you can bet the focus was on replicating the final-quarter shutdown on the Kings that almost got them back into the game.

“I am happy the guys showed they understand where the responsibility lies and responded with a very good defensive effort in the fourth quarter,” Maor said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Met him at the TOP!! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/TeZ5ZcHIUj">pic.twitter.com/TeZ5ZcHIUj</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1600767868848590849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That’s going to be crucial against a JackJumpers’ offence that looks all-world when they initiate early ball movement, but can be all-ugly when bogged down into one-on-one basketball.

Tassie coach Scott Roth knows the difference between the two is mainly his team’s ability to get stops and flow into O, rather than walking it up against pressure.

After giving up 92ppg in back-to-back losses to Adelaide and Cairns, the JackJumpers rediscovered their defensive bite to hold the undermanned Hawks to 60.

“It’s probably my fault that we got away from our identity of pressure and constantly working on that, we got away from that a little bit and I think some teams got comfortable playing against us,” Roth said.

“It’s something we continue to talk about and try to improve upon, it was definitely a focus tonight making sure we got up the floor and being who we are supposed to be and these guys did a really good job of responding.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Oh wowee Will. <br>Magnay gets up! <br><br>Watch live on ESPN via Foxtel &amp; Kayo <br><br>GAME DAY PARTNER - Willie Smith’s, bringing the Valley to the Sea. DEC 24 - JAN 2 <a href="https://t.co/2efRhfKa3o">pic.twitter.com/2efRhfKa3o</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1605849814927028224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That win broke a run of three straight home losses, much to the relief of Isaac White and Co.

“It’s something we all take to heart, when we let the crowd down we let Tasmania down, it’s something we don’t take lightly and it was a big focus going into tonight’s game,” White said.

Now they must break a run of three straight losses to New Zealand to stay inside the top six.

“We've had two really good games against them that have gone down to the last two or three minutes and been quite scrappy,” Roth said.

“We have a chance to come in and play them again, they haven't played for quite a while and we’ll see where it goes ... they're a really good team, they're well coached and we’ll have our hands full with them.”

Monday’s game in Hobart and the upcoming home date with Perth are crucial for the Breakers, as two defeats would leave them on seven losses and in the crush for sixth spot ahead of a run of six games in 14 days through January.

They’ll need to be ready to step back into the physical style that embodies both teams, resulting in an average score of just 75.3 in the season series, well below the NBL23 team average of 86.5.

“We have no problem being in a dogfight, we actually enjoy it,” Maor said after the last meeting in Launceston.