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Preview: SE Melbourne v Adelaide (Round 10)

Friday, December 9, 2022
SE Melbourne are closing in on the top two, but after falling at home on Friday, the 36ers desperately need a win to stay close to sixth position.
When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 11 December
Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
Who won the last time?
South East Melbourne 103 (Kell 24, Williams 18, Broekhoff 17) d Adelaide 98 (Randall 28, Johnson 16, Drmic 13) OT – Round 5 at John Cain Arena
This game looked to be ‘how far Phoenix’ when they led by 16 late in the second term, but Anthony Drmic sparked a comeback before half-time, then Craig Randall unleashed 17 points in the final 15 minutes to force an extra period. That was where the fun ended for the visitors, Trey Kell with 20 of his own in the final quarter and overtime to get the W.
What happened last game?
South East Melbourne put the foot down a little earlier to open Round 10, turning a 50-50 scoreline with 90 seconds left in the second term into a 111-72 route, as the NBL’s least-prolific three-point team drained 16 triples at a blistering 59 per cent. That leaves Adelaide rock-bottom for made three-pointers, and they did nothing to help that with a 6/26 effort in a tight-loss to Perth, where 11 Bryce Cotton points in the final two minutes proved the difference.
What’s working?
The starters – The Phoenix are 8-2 with their starting five on board, and last time against Adelaide that quintet combined for 89 points, 32 rebounds and 20 assists, shooting 58 per cent inside and 18/22 from the foul line. South East Melbourne’s starters lead the NBL in points (71.7ppg, other starters average 58.5), assists (14.7), o-boards (7.1) and free throws (20.4), while Adelaide’s rank second in scoring (66.4) and field-goal clip (48%) and equal first in o-boards.
The interior – From Randall’s last game onwards, the 36ers have landed just 7.4 treys per game at 27 per cent, so thankfully their inside conversion ranks only behind Sydney, scoring 47.2ppg from twos at 55 per cent. They burned Perth for 60 points in the paint at 67 per cent on Friday, the same number they scored when dispatching the 'Cats in Round 8. However, they only managed 40 in their OT loss to SEM and a paltry 26 in defeat in Sydney.
What needs stopping?
The interior – While offensive Adelaide can do some serious interior damage, so can their opponents. The Kings scored 52 paint points at 63 per cent and Perth 48 at 71 per cent on Friday. South East Melbourne managed 46 PiPs last time, with 34 of those from Mitch Creek and Alan Williams at 61 per cent. Given SEM’s long-range inconsistency, the 36ers will need a smart containment and help strategy to nullify that duo without giving up naked looks.
Active Mitch – In Melbourne’s NBL21 title run, McCarron dished five or more assists in 13 of their final 14 games, dealing four in the other. He also pulled in four or more rebounds 27 times. When Mitch is active, good things happen, but there have been too many passive performances this season. Friday was not one of those, involved in everything at both ends to finish with 20 points, 13 rebounds including nine o-boards, six dimes and two steals. Can he be just as aggressive two days later and exploit Gary Browne’s size on the glass?
Who’s matching up?
Mitch Creek v Robert Franks – Adelaide kept Creek to 16 points at 31 per cent last time as he shot 1/7 from beyond five feet. He still went 6/7 from the foul line, grabbed nine boards and dished four dimes, but he’ll want to make amends. Franks only took seven shots that day, but has been the man since, averaging 19.4ppg on 15 attempts. With 15.3ppg coming from ‘ones and twos’, he’ll be looking to put Creek into foul pressure close to the hoop.
Alan Williams v Daniel Johnson – Big Sauce went 6/9 from the field and 6/6 from the stripe against Adelaide in Round 5, but fouling out after just 22 minutes meant he couldn’t fully exploit the far-less powerful. Four of those whistles were trying to defend guards, so expect Adelaide to put the big fella in countless screening situations, and for Johnson to pop repeatedly in the hope of repeating his 4/9 outside shooting effort from last time.
Antonius Cleveland v Gary Browne – The Phoenix have lost six games. Browne didn’t play in three, and in the other three he’s averaged 4.7 assists and 3.3 turnovers. Compare that to his 8.9 dimes to 3.0 cough-ups in wins, and near three-to-one ratio, and you understand his importance. Ideally, Adelaide want Browne shooting contested Js over Cleveland’s long arm, because GB is getting more comfortable shooting over smaller defenders.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">???????? ??????????? ?<br><br>4/4 from deeeeep!!<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/UmRDwgPIQZ">pic.twitter.com/UmRDwgPIQZ</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1600784215557124096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Who’s saying what?
No one questions what South East Melbourne’s stars can do on the offensive end, it’s how long they can string together their best defensively that will determine how far they go in NBL23.
It turns out that against Illawarra on Thursday 20 minutes was enough.
“Defensively there was some really poor defensive play from us in the first half and then we locked down and played one of the best defensive performances any team has done this year in the second half,” coach Simon Mitchell said.
“It's good to see the guys lock in and then there was no let-up when guys came into the game, and that’s what we want to see.”
That’s going to be the key. With their key men carrying almost the entire offensive load, they need a breather if they’re going to play high-level defence possession after possession.
The Phoenix bench ranks last in scoring, but Mitchell has only been concerned by their defensive inconsistencies, and he’s liking the improvements he’s seen in recent games.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Junior Madut ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/nYTQED11ar">pic.twitter.com/nYTQED11ar</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1600782700440272898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
“They got a lot of opportunities in the pre-season matches and the first five games of the year when we had injuries, especially Junior, and there were some things we took away from the pre-season and start of the season that Owen Foxwell, Junior Madut and Grant (Anticevich) needed to go work on,” Mitchell said.
“We've worked with them diligently at practice to try and get some things right and I feel a level of comfort that we've eliminated some of those issues.
“They're all things from a defensive standpoint where they need experience, and I feel like as the season’s worn on at practice those guys are really starting to show the consistency.
“You’ve got to reward that consistency at practice, and it would be nice to get Creeky some minutes on the bench, (Broekhoff) get a little bit of rest.”
What that rest means is the Phoenix can apply the defensive pressure that hides some interior half-court issues and generates points going the other way.
“We've been doing it for a lot of the season … sometimes it works, sometimes you can really get into the heads of the opposition and create those turnovers and create easy offence for yourself, and sometimes you get slayed and get in foul trouble.,” Mitchell said.
“The majority of times we've gone in and put really good pressure in the backcourt we've been successful.”
Applying full-court heat is a balancing act against Adelaide, because the last thing you want is Robert Franks, Antonius Cleveland, Mitch McCarron, Kai Sotto and Co getting going in the open floor.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Play of the Day, thanks to Fantastic Noodles.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreSixers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreSixers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SwoopTheHoop?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SwoopTheHoop</a> <a href="https://t.co/MEtxE27sFl">pic.twitter.com/MEtxE27sFl</a></p>— Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1601373631879073792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The 36ers’ own defensive inconsistency has limited how often they can run and gun, and they haven't been nearly as good when taking the ball out of the net.
“We’ve shown when we play our best basketball we’re a really good team,” Daniel Johnson said ahead of his 400th game on Friday.
“I thought our defence was really good in the last time we played Perth.”
It wasn’t this time around though, giving up 98 points on 65 per cent shooting inside the arc, the sixth time they’ve conceded more than 90 points this season, and the second outing in a row.
“We played pretty hard for a majority of the game, but we made some mistakes on the defensive end and kind of lost the momentum there at times offensively,” Mitch McCarron said.
“We lost our pace because of those mistakes.”
They’ll lose the game on Sunday if they aren't a cohesive defensive unit against arguably the most well-rounded scoring line-up in the league.
“We've got a little bit of everything,” Ryan Broekhoff said.
“Gary and Trey being able to score and create, me being able to spread the floor and open things up for Sauce inside and Creeky inside and outside.
“It’s a tough match-up, there’s so much different skillsets that work well together and teams have to pick their poison, what they want to take away, what they want to focus on.
“Some games it will be me getting more shots, sometimes it will be Creeky getting open lanes, sometimes it’s Sauce playing one-on-one ... That just fills us with confidence that we've got that unselfish team that if it’s not our night we are able to help the others get going and spread the load."