Preview: NZ v Tasmania (Playoffs Game 1)

When: 4pm (AEDT), Sunday 12 February, 2023
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: Live & free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies, 10 Peach & 10 play/Live on SkySport (NZ)
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won the last time?

Tasmania 93 (Magette 16, Doyle 14, Krslovic 14) d New Zealand 82 (Le’afa 21, Brantley 16, Brown 16) – Round 12 at MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

After being held to just 67.7ppg at 36 per cent across three NBL23 losses to New Zealand, the JackJumpers finally broke the Breakers shackles in Round 12, running up 93 points as they dominated the possession game, pushed in transition, attacked the rim and got to the foul line. It was a team effort with six JJs scoring nine points or more, and while the Kiwis had five in double-figures, turnovers hurt badly in the absence of Will-McDowell-White.

What happened last game?

Forcing turnovers was the saving grace for New Zealand in Round 18 as they squeaked past Brisbane and into the Playoffs, despite only making five field goals in the final 11 minutes of the overtime clash. The Bullets got to the foul line at will as they attacked the Breakers’ pressure, but Mody Maor’s men wore them down into mistakes with their physicality.

Tasmania wore the Taipans down with their exceptional depth on Thursday in Cairns, 10 JackJumpers playing 10 minutes or more as they won bench scoring 46-8 and racked up 35 points at 56 per cent in the final 14 minutes. Rashard Kelly was the standout with 11 points, 12 rebounds and four assists, while Milton Doyle make the big plays when it mattered.  

What’s working?

Starting hot – Tasmania went 5/11 from range in the opening quarter of their win over New Zealand, compared to 21/99 over the rest of the season series. All five triples came from kick-outs or ball reversals, opening the key for them to shoot 20/29 at 69 per cent from two over the final three terms, compared to just 44 per cent inside for the rest of the season series. Early ball movement and second chances is Tassie’s best chance to crack the Breakers’ defence.

Stopping motion – Of course, no one jams ball movement better than New Zealand, who allow the fewest assists and the fewest three-pointers. During the Breakers’ 44-10 second-half run against Tassie in Round 5, they allowed just 2.7 passes per half-court set and Tassie shot 2/16 and committed six turnovers in 12 minutes. In the opening term in Round 12, the JJs had three or more passes in 13 of their 16 half-court sets for 27 points.

What needs stopping?

Fatigue fouls – In New Zealand’s three wins in this season series they were +22 on free-throw attempts, with 21 of those extras coming in final quarters. In those games, Tassie had on average 2.7 main rotation players out injured, and 12 of those final-quarter foul shots came after turnovers or o-boards. With a full roster on deck in Round 12 the JackJumpers were only -1 on free-throw attempts, something they’ll need to repeat on Sunday.    

Possession dominance – In that Tasmanian win they grabbed 16 offensive rebounds at 41 per cent and won second chance points 14-5. They also pinched 13 steals for 20 points from turnovers to create a 13-point advantage from possession points in an 11-point win. Josh Magette had five thefts that day, and his craftiness will be missed, while Jack McVeigh, Fabijan Krslovic and Kelly combined for nine o-boards and 13 second chance points.

Who’s missing key men?

Tasmania will be without Magette and Clint Steindl will be a game-time decision, while New Zealand are awaiting clearance for Best Sixth Man winner Barry Brown Jr.

Who’s matching up?

Jarrell Brantley v Rashard Kelly & Jack McVeigh – Tasmania have won six of their past eight and across that span their power forward duo has averaged 29.2ppg at 50 per cent and 10.9 rebounds, including 3.2 o-boards. When Kelly scores in double-figures the JackJumpers are 14-6 – including 10-2 since the FIBA break – compared to 3-6 across the rest of the season.

It’s Kelly’s defence and rebounding that’s most important against Brantley, who’s targeted McVeigh physically inside. JB has averaged 21.4ppg on 20/44 from range in his past seven games, playing 33 minutes per night, and if Kelly can contest and keep him off the glass, it allows Jack to come in fresh and test his ability to chase McTrey off the arc.

Dererk Pardon v Will Magnay – Big Will missed the first two losses to New Zealand and played 14 uneventful minutes in his return game in the third. In Tasmania’s win, however, he had nine points, nine rebounds, three assists and two blocks in 22 minutes to help hold the Breakers to 44 per cent shooting inside and just six o-boards from 30 missed field goals.

Pardon had 10 points and eight boards that night, after terrorising the donut-like JackJumpers in their previous meeting with 19 points and 10 rebounds – shooting 13/17 from the foul line – to be +16 in an eight-point win. He had 15 points from dump-offs from the Breakers’ guard trio as the JJs struggled to contain ball-screen action.

Will McDowell-White v Tasmania – NZ’s chief pick-and-roll operator is WMW, who was missing with a hand injury when the JackJumpers prevailed in Round 12. In the previous three meetings Will only scored 16 points at 38 per cent, but masterminded the Breakers offence with 17 assists to four turnovers to be +54, while the Breakers were -8 with him off.

Matt Kenyon and Co will be asked to deny inbounds catches and channel WMW away from the middle on-ball where he is so effective. When he’s in the middle cylinder, Tassie must avoid giving up feeds to the roll-man, whether that be by chasing Will over the top, tagging the roller from the weakside or trapping the ball and rotating proactively behind it.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WMW was in true point guard form last night ? <br><br>15pts<br>9ast<br>8reb<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/CqZkpjt4vn">pic.twitter.com/CqZkpjt4vn</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1622123792209440769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

With the NBL’s top-rated defence, the New Zealand Breakers return to the NBL Finals after a four-season absence as one of the genuine title fancies.

But they haven't built a fearsome defensive unit on being comfortable, they’ve done it with a burning desire to return respect to their once-powerhouse club.

“Do I feel we’re an underdog? I don’t think so. We believe in who we are and how we do things. Is there a chip on our shoulder? Yeah, for sure,” coach Mody Maor told Stuff Media.

“This chip is there because we’re competitors. It’s the people we brought in, and way we view competing. Give me any excuse you want and I’ll add it to the chips.

“Travel? Yeah, come to the chip bag. Schedule? Come to the chip bag. Awards? Come. Whatever you want, I can fuel it, but it’s kind of there anyway. It’s how we do things.”

How they do things is with a bunch of talented players who all fill roles at the offensive end.

Scoring sensation Barry Brown Jr this week recognised the different pieces that make his team hard to guard and make his life easier, calling them his teammates’ “swagger”.

“It might be Cam (Gliddon) hitting one shot and then coming right back and hitting a tough, contested shot, and not saying anything. That’s his swagger,” Brown said.

“Will making the right pass, right pass, and then a floater. He might not do the things I do, but that’s his swag.

“I think we all bring our own swag, our own personality to the game. And that’s what’s separated us and allowed us to enjoy the game of basketball.”

At the defensive end, however, they’re all bringing the same swag. Physical, relentless and unwavering pressure for the best part of 40 minutes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brantley says NO, Tom says YES ? <a href="https://t.co/EepPd9TaUG">pic.twitter.com/EepPd9TaUG</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1618538791974866946?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 26, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It could be a scary proposition for a Tasmanian team missing floor general Josh Magette, but as Isaac White showed with his career-high 18-point outburst in Cairns, there’s plenty in reserve.

“We are a really deep team, so my mindset is just to stay ready,” White said post-game.

“I work out with guys who player lesser minutes after every game to make sure I stay conditioned and stay ready.

“Scott calls my name randomly so I have to be ready to make sure I can make the most of those opportunities.”

Another unheralded key in Thursday’s qualifier was Sam McDaniel, who was an equal game-high +19 in his 12 minutes, and his strength and athleticism will again be needed against Barry Brown.

“New Zealand, unlike Cairns, play pretty similar to us,” he told SEN after the win in Cairns.

“They want to play like us, a slow game, defence, grind it away, physical. We’re expecting all those things from them.

“It’s going to be a test of both defence and physicality … and they’ve got some talent over there for sure. It’ll be a good test for us.”

While that might seem like a very tough test after a physical final in the Far North, associate head coach Jacob Chance believes his team is physically firing for Sunday.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Doyle starting the 2nd half with a bang ? <br>Watch live on ESPN via Foxtel &amp; Kayo Freebies <a href="https://t.co/cc9QmgGOdb">pic.twitter.com/cc9QmgGOdb</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1623632756369670146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


“The guys are well rested and pulled up pretty well from Cairns,” he told The Mercury, adding that his team’s early-season defeats to New Zealand had proven valuable.

“We learnt a lot from those two (losses) and it really helped us through the middle part of the year.

“The last two times we’ve played them we’ve been in really good spots, obviously the third time we played them we didn’t have Milton Doyle out there and Sean Macdonald fouled out, and then the fourth game we felt we finally got it to a place where the game was played more on our terms.”

What does that mean? Both sides want to force their opponents into walk-up basketball where the defence can dictate with hands-on physicality without earning the ire of the officials.

Then, off mistakes or poor shots, flow into offence the other way so stars like Milton Doyle can make plays in transition or off ball reversals.

When the JackJumpers can make their short skip passes to the weakside big, it opens up dribble hand-offs and ball-screens for Doyle before Brantley and Co are in position to hard show and before the help defence can get set.

The battle between the physicality of Brantley, Pardon and Tom Vodanovich in denying those feeds, and Tassie’s talls leading strong and protecting their catch zone will be crucial in the result of Sunday’s game.

For coach Chance, it’s about understanding New Zealand’s pressure and how to implement counters on the run that exploit their defensive enthusiasm.

“Hopefully we can put a game plan together that puts us in a position where we can get quality shots and ultimately help our defence get set up,” Chance said.

“The pleasing thing with our last game (against the Breakers) was we controlled the tempo of the game and offensively found ways to score against their pressure and that’s going to be a big key for us.”