Preview: New Zealand v Perth (Round 9)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 3 December, 2022

Where: Spark Arena, Auckland

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Perth 89 (Law 18, Cotton 16, Blanchfield 13) d New Zealand 80 (Wetzell 22, Besson 15, Siva 12) – Round 19, NBL22 at RAC Arena, Perth

The Wildcats controlled this game to take another step closer to an NBL22 playoff berth that never eventuated. The Breakers targeted Bryce Cotton but Perth’s counters were en pointe, with five players in double figures and another two scoring seven points. Yanni Wetzell was a handful inside for New Zealand, but the 'Cats owned the boards and forced 17 turnovers.

What happened last game?

Perth haven't wiped the glass much this season, and their ability to generate points from turnovers has greatly diminished from early in NBL23. Both of those were factors in their loss to Brisbane on Thursday, going -7 on possession points in an OT defeat. There was no danger of an extra period in Christchurch, however, New Zealand gaining some vengeance on South East Melbourne by running up 63 points in the opening half and cruising to victory.

What’s working?

Making adjustments – When the new season resembled an NBL13 grappling match, the Breakers grabbed, bumped and held with the best of them. Now it’s being officiated like the NBL20 scoring fest, New Zealand are cutting teams apart attacking the hoop from early in the shot clock and via slick ball-screen execution that usually finds the open man. Over the past two games they’ve averaged 113.0ppg at 58 per cent, dishing 21 assists to just 10.5 turnovers.

Scoring points – It’s a depressing time to be a Wildcats fan, but that’s not because of a lack of offence. Perth have averaged 93.5ppg in their past four outings, nailing 12.5 triples at 38 per cent in regulation and dishing 20 assist per night to just 11 turnovers. Of course, when the offence dried up in overtime at Nissan Arena – shooting a woeful 1/11 – the defence wasn’t capable of saving the day, leaking 14 points in five minutes at 60 per cent.

What needs stopping?

Rebounding impotence – Somehow, the 'Cats managed to lose the rebounding percentages to a Bullets team without Aron Baynes or Tyrell Harrison. That Bryce Cotton (4.7rpg) is their second-leading rebounder is an indictment. TaShawn Thomas, who averaged 6.9rpg across 215 games in high-quality European competitions, is averaging just 4.7, Brady Manek 4.3, Todd Blanchfield 3.2 and Jesse Wagstaff 2.8. Perth’s frontcourt needs to man up.

Barry Brown Jr – Of course, if Barry Brown continues his current form there won’t be many d-boards to corral, the New Zealand superstar shooting 14/28 from deep in his past four games to average 22.5ppg. He simply destroyed the Phoenix on Thursday, scoring 14 inside, 12 from the arc and five from the foul line, and given Luke Travers’ success in the NBA summer league deterring athletic shooter/penetrators, could be this be a job for the Mullet on the other side of the ball-screen?

Who’s matching up?

Jarrell Brantley & Dererk Pardon v TaShawn Thomas & Brady Manek – How will Perth start in this one? Do they back Wagstaff’s experience to face Brantley, or will he be overmatched physically? Does Thomas present the best match-up for Brantley? Is Majok Majok the specimen to battle Pardon, allowing Manek to match-up with Rob Loe off the bench? And is there time for Travers at the four now the officials are cleaning up the physicality?

As always, there are plenty of questions surrounding the Wildcats’ frontcourt. Thomas and Manek were far from their worst on Thursday, combining for 30 points at 46 per cent, but the reality is the 'Cats are the NBL’s worst defensive rebounding team, and their two big imports are pulling in a total of 6.3drpg. By comparison, Pardon and Brantley combine for 4.5 o-boards, and they’ll rip Perth apart if their bigs don’t show more starch on the glass.

Tom Abercrombie v Bryce Cotton – The Breakers skipper was back to his familiar role troubling point guards with his length on Thursday, and he led an effort that made Gary Browne a turnover-prone non-factor. He’s familiar with the job on Cotton, keeping him to 15.5ppg at 29 per cent in two NBL21 wins, but giving up 33ppg at 47 per cent in two Ls surrounding that. Can his length contest the shot and crowd the passing lanes on Saturday?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The game-tying dunk from LT. ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/Z0SURlRZDa">pic.twitter.com/Z0SURlRZDa</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1598265247667671045?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

It’s been a long time since the New Zealand Breakers were scary good. Right now, they’re scary good.

“Last week against Brisbane they were extraordinary, it was one hell of a shooting display,” Phoenix coach Simon Mitchell said on Thursday.

“They shot the ball extraordinarily well tonight, both first half and in the last quarter when the bench came on. The effectiveness of Barry Brown and Will McDowell-White finding guys open, and Barry just blowing by our defence made it very difficult.

“They’re an extraordinarily good team, they're really high level, they execute very well, they got themselves to the line, they made threes and they were tough on the pick-and-roll.”

That’s not even mentioning their defence, which is now ranked first in the league after giving up just 74.9ppg in their past nine outings for an 8-1 return.

They kept the Phoenix to only 39 points in the opening half, forcing nine turnovers as their length and proactive positioning put doubt into the minds of Gary Browne and Co.

“I was very happy with the way we defended in the first half,” coach Mody Maor said.

“I thought we picked our spots and controlled the areas we wanted to control on defence, and when our defence did break down I really enjoyed our guys putting in multiple efforts.”

In that first half against South East Melbourne, the Breakers scored 31 points from turnovers and defensive rebounds as they showed ominous speed in transition.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">GUESS WHO&#39;S BACK <a href="https://t.co/FoYcaqSnKi">pic.twitter.com/FoYcaqSnKi</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1598212721308479488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“When we get stops and defensive rebounds, we get into our offence faster and it’s easier to create advantages,” Maor said.

Remarkably, New Zealand won points in the paint, three-point scores, points from turnovers, second chance points, bench scoring and fast break points as they seemingly found every chink in SEM’s defensive armour.

There’s plenty of those in the Wildcats’ defence too, and they know it.

“We've been trying to turn things around for a while now,” forward Jesse Wagstaff said.

“It's the inconsistency, it's the o-boards in the first quarter, then it's the D-trans in the second, then it's something else in the third and something else in the fourth.

“It's disappointing, it sucks, but we'll keep on fighting and we've got a tough task ahead of us, New Zealand in New Zealand is a tough task, but we'll keep fighting and see where it lands us.”

The Breakers were deadly in the open floor on Thursday, racking up 18 fast break points and plenty more in transition, and Rillie is hoping his side can find some structural and effort improvements in that area while flying across the Tasman.

“Whether it was our shot selection I'm not sure, but usually when teams get out in transition it’s your shot selection or turnovers. The Bullets had seven points in transition in the second quarter,” Rillie said post-game.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ball movement on point!<br><br>Bullets lead 27-25 at quarter time.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/w24kRzYrnQ">pic.twitter.com/w24kRzYrnQ</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1598241018989940738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Perth rank last in d-boards and the Kiwis second in o-boards, and that’s another area that could put the Wildcats’ defence under stress.

For Rillie, it all comes down to matching New Zealand’s energy so his men are in position to pounce on stray caroms.

“There’s little different things, whether you want to call them one-percenters or 50-50s, it’s not the rebounding, it’s the others things that lead up to that,” he said.

“You talk about New Zealand, that’s what they're doing at a high level right now. They cover for each other, they make up for mistakes, because the game’s full of mistakes, it’s how you recover from making a mistake.”

Yet while Perth still at times resemble a new group that’s figuring where the pieces fit, the Breakers seem to be almost perfectly in sync at both ends.

“Everybody is getting better, both honing their skills and in decision-making within the frame of our offence,” coach Mody Maor said.

“I think we have a better understanding now of where our shots come from, what is the shot profile we want and how we generate them.”

While New Zealand are flying and the Wildcats anything but, Maor believes Saturday is a case of being wary of a wounded Wildcat.

“Perth are an incredible organisation, an incredible club, with a few of the best players the NBL has to offer,” he said.

“They present incredible challenges, and that’s the beauty of the NBL, you never walk into an easy one. We’re expecting a real battle.”