Preview: New Zealand v Perth (Round 14)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 4 January, 2023

Where: TSB Stadium, New Plymouth

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

LIVE SCORES AND STATS

Who won last time?

Perth 92 (Webster 26, Manek 18, Cotton 17) d New Zealand 84 (Brown 27, Pardon 13, Abercrombie 10) – Round 9 at Spark Arena, Auckland

The Breakers were cruising to their sixth-straight victory when they led by 10 midway through the second quarter, but Perth flicked a switched few knew they had at that time and unleashed a 42-22 run behind some selfless ball movement and high-quality shooting. While New Zealand fought back late in the final term the damage had been done, much of it by Corey Webster, who responded the best way possible to a pre-game social media jibe.

What happened last game?

The Wildcats’ offence was firing once again on New Year’s Eve and ran up 107 points on Illawarra to move into fifth spot. That was a crucial win, given four of their next five games are against the top two teams. New Zealand picked the wrong opponent to return from a COVID break against, and ran into a fired-up JackJumpers outfit who never really gave them a sniff. They now embark on a run of nine games in 24 days that will define their season.

What’s working?

Shifting the defence – In Perth’s game-changing run against New Zealand they scored 42 points in 12:15 surrounding half-time, dishing 11 dimes in just over a quarter of basketball. Their team-first, five-out offence was at it again in Wollongong with 23 assists to seven turnovers. The Wildcats have now reached 90 points in regulation in eight of their past 10 games averaging 20.7 assists, and registered triple-figures in two of their past three outings.

Training – While the Breakers didn’t use their lay-off as an excuse it definitely took a toll in Tassie. Level-pegging with the JackJumpers in offensive rebounding percentage heading into that game, NZ grabbed six while giving up 16 as they were simply outworked. The blessing following that loss was an eight-day break to regain conditioning on the practice court as the Kiwis are just 1.5 games clear of Perth and play them twice in the next six days.

What needs stopping?

Websters – The social media post has been well-discussed, as has Corey’s 26-point outburst against his former team. But it wasn’t just momentary motivation, it was the ultimate rust-breaker, C-Web has averaged 18.2ppg at 52 per cent from long range since then, and the 'Cats have gone 5-1. He was 6/7 from mid-range against the Breakers, and not only do they have to stop his patented pull-up, they’ve now got Tai Webster to worry about as well.

Barry Brown Jr – Barry White saved a life, and Barry Brown almost saved New Zealand from going down to the Wildcats in Round 9, racking up 27 points on 8/12 in the paint and 6/6 from the foul line – half of the Breakers’ total free throws – as he sliced up the defence. Perth were -16 on points in the paint that game, and are -128 in their past 10 games, so Brown in attack mode will test out the NBL’s second-worst shot-blocking team.

Who’s matching up?

Jarrell Brantley v Brady Manek – New Zealand are 6-1 when Brantley drops 17 points or more and 10-1 when he hits multiple triples, with the only loss coming against the Kings. He went 1/4 and scored nine points against the Wildcats in Round 9. Manek had 18 points on 4/7 from deep in that game, and pulled out a performance for the ages in Wollongong, rocking out 23 points, 10 rebounds and five assists to farewell 2022 in style.

Izayah Le’afa v Bryce Cotton – On the surface you’d be happy if you kept Cotton to three made field goals. That’s what New Zealand did, but they fouled him eight times, he went 10/10 from the stripe and dished out eight assists to punish the overplay, and five of them came in that game-changing 42-22 run. What Le’afa and the Breakers will take heart from is giving up just four three-point attempts – Bryce is averaging 8.6 per game this season – now they’ve got to force him into more contested shots at the cup rather than pull-up jumpers that regularly draw fouls.

Dererk Pardon v TaShawn Thomas – Pardon has his role to play in the paint too, and the fact he only took six shots and three free throws was a big factor in the loss to Perth. The Breakers have won their past five games Pardon has scored 15 or more, and he needs to pick, roll and demand the ball. At the other end, no big will test out his ‘hard shows’ better than Thomas, who’s roll-out game has been superb of late. He's averaging 18 points on 37/50 shooting inside the arc, 3.2 assists and 2.8 o-boards in his past five showings.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sky, cross, dime. <br><br>Sky Sport 4 and Prime <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/HP6sPAFdcp">pic.twitter.com/HP6sPAFdcp</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1598932505373347841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

The Perth Wildcats are an offensive juggernaut right now, and the numbers on that are irrefutable.

In their past 10 games, John Rillie’s men have averaged 95.9ppg with 11.3 triples at 37 per cent, while dishing 20 or more dimes in seven of those contests.

They rarely win points in the paint, but their three-point efficiency and the brilliance of Bryce Cotton and Corey Webster from midrange means they have no issues finding ways to score.

During the decisive middle quarters of their Round 9 win over the Breakers, Perth shot an incredible 7/8 from midrange as they moved the ball sharply into on-ball situations.

The sync that has grown between Cotton and the high-quality passing of TaShawn Thomas and Luke Travers enables the Cats to find the chinks that appear in opposition armour.

“You mention those three, you throw in Webster and you throw in Manek and that’s a very good five,” coach Rillie said after his team defeated the Hawks.

“Potent offensively, Luke Travers a very smart player so he complements those guys. I think three of those guys ended up in the 20-plus range tonight, then Thomas ended up in the high teens.”

Perth are 5-1 from their past six games, with their starting quintet dealing a remarkable 17.2 assists per game, including 20 in the win over New Zealand.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Corey Webster played an important role tonight with a team-high 25 points, including 5/6 from deep! ? <a href="https://t.co/n3XWBWgyPa">pic.twitter.com/n3XWBWgyPa</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1609122107115581443?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 31, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We’re at our best when we share the ball and that’s what we did in the first half,” Rillie said of his team’s 61 points in 20 minutes in Wollongong.

“We did a fantastic job of getting deep into the paint, moving the ball and you saw in the first half everyone got rewarded by the unselfishness.”

Yet while that long list of offensive numbers are impressive, Rillie doesn’t see the improvement as coming from that end.

“A lot it’s driven through our defence,” he said.

“We've got some potent offensive players, but if you don’t have the ball you can’t play offence. We work hard on defence, our different schemes, I think that’s where our biggest growth has been, but you can see it statistically in our offence.”

While that may be true, the challenge opposition teams are pondering is how to stop their five-out offence with passing threats all over the court, something New Zealand couldn’t do in Round 9.

“When you come to play the Perth Wildcats, you better be ready for a battle … and we were not today,” Breakers coach Mody Maor said post-game.

“We came in flat, they beat us in every effort category and they deserved to win … we didn’t play our game at all today, even when we were up it wasn’t us … we never played the way we wanted to play, there was an air of complacency.”

As many Perth opponents are finding out, when the ball keeps going through the defensive net it can be a deflating experience.

“I feel like at times we didn’t stay together like we usually do, we can’t be front runners,” Barry Brown said.

“We lost a lot of the energy plays, the 50-50 balls, then just mental lapses throughout the entire game.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Back on court New Years Eve. <a href="https://t.co/eQE57gC7s1">pic.twitter.com/eQE57gC7s1</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1607705310550183942?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There was few of those after quarter-time in Tasmania last week, where the Breakers fought relentlessly until the final whistle, even if they could never get back into the game.

“What I saw from my guys is nobody gave up,” Maor said.

“Sometimes it gets stacked against you a little bit too much and then what is tested is your character. Some teams fold, some teams keep fighting. My team kept fighting so I’m optimistic about the next one.”

The Breakers will be without Will McDowell-White again, but the long build-up gives them the opportunity to prepare for his absence, reincorporate the returning Rayan Rupert and get their defensive schemes right for Cotton, Webster and Co.

With a hectic schedule coming up, coach Maor knows this is not a game they can afford to lose on home soil.

“This is kind of like a regular week build-up into a game. It’s the last one we’ve got because we’ve got nine games in January,” he said.

“We’ll use it to adjust the things we need to adjust for when Will’s not on the floor, get a little bit sharper, get a little bit back into game shape.

“I’m sure we’re going to play a lot better.”