Preview: Cairns v Perth (Play-In Game)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 12 February, 2023
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: Live & free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies, 10 Peach & 10 play/Live on ESPN (NZ)
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Cairns 84 (Kuol 15, Hogg 14, Deng 14) d Perth 71 (Cotton 28, Thomas 23, Manek 12) – Round 18 at RAC Arena, Perth

Cairns took to The Jungle without Tahjere McCall and Keanu Pinder and applied some serious clamps, keeping the 'Cats to 71 points at 35 per cent after they’d averaged 102.8ppg in their previous five outings. The Taipans dominated the glass and got a huge boost from bench men Ben Ayre, Lat Mayen and Majok Deng, who scored a combined 32 points to cover for their starters’ 20/49 shooting night. In contrast, while Bryce Cotton and TaShawn Thomas were standouts, only one other Wildcat scored more than two points for the game.

What happened last game?

In the final term in Melbourne, Perth became the glass masters to chase down a 13-point deficit, going +8 on possessions and scoring 19 of their 41 points from o-boards and turnovers. Cotton made the most of those extra chances, scoring 20 final-quarter points on 5/9 and dishing three assists, after having six points on 2/10 and one dime until that stage.

The Taipans needed a late-game miracle but couldn’t break the JackJumpers’ deadlock, held to 79 points at 41 per cent and 5/22 from outside. Coach Adam Forde played his bench just 38 minutes and paid the price, Tassie’s reserves winning that battle 46-8 and Cairns’ defence lacking zest as they gave up 35 points at 56 per cent in the final 14:30 of the game.

What’s working?

Looking after the rock – While the Snakes have the NBL’s second-best defence, they rank eighth for offensive rating, have the second-least efficient half-court O, rank second last in efficiency for isolation plays, last in scores from the pick-and-roll ball-handler, and while they’re middle-of-the-pack in scores by the screener over the season, the absent Pinder was a big part in racking up those numbers.

Against Perth they’ve averaged just 81ppg at 41 per cent, 27 per cent from deep and coughed up 16 turnovers per game. That last stat is perhaps the key, because their defence needs to win this contest, and it can’t do that gifting free scores. The Wildcats were +24 on points from turnovers in two wins over Cairns, but -7 in their Round 18 defeat. If the Taipans give their half-court D a chance, they're a real chance.  

Luke Travers – Perth were +23 with Travers on against South East and -16 with him resting, maintaining his spot as their number one plus/minus man this season. They scored 77 points at 63 per cent in his 25:20, but just 29 points at 35 per cent in the other 14:40. At the other end, the Phoenix shot 63 per cent when Travers sat, but just 35 per cent with him on.

Why? One big reason is the glass, Perth grabbing 82 per cent of d-boards and 45 per cent o-boards with LT playing – compared to 44 and 18 per cent in his down time – his five rebounds in their final-quarter run crucial. The emerging star’s length and anticipation allow him to make quick reads at both ends that are crucial to Perth’s structure and rebounding.

What needs stopping?

The other Wildcats – Cairns know Bryce can beat them, but in Round 18 they didn’t want him doing it from outside, nor his teammates joining the party. They ran Cotton off the arc to the tune of 1/6, and while Thomas and Brady Manek combined for 35, the rest of Perth’s roster had only eight points on 2/19 shooting. In Perth’s past six wins, everyone-bar-Bryce has averaged 82.2ppg, compared to 62.7ppg from the supporting cast in their past six Ls.

Quick turnovers – Cairns knew they had an advantage over Tassie’s defence if they attacked early, but they were too reckless, committing eight live-ball turnovers in the opening half of the shot clock, which the JackJumpers converted into 11 points at 71 per cent. In contrast, in their win over Perth at RAC Arena, the Snakes committed just one live-ball turnover-up in the opening 12 seconds of their possession, forcing the 'Cats into half-court offence.

Who’s missing key men?

Perth's Tai Webster will miss Sunday's game due to illness, while the Taipans will be without McCall and Pinder.

Who’s matching up?

DJ Hogg v Brady Manek – How good was Manek’s first half in Melbourne? He had 19 points at 70 per cent and dropped five triples to keep the Wildcats in the contest, his ability to stretch the floor a key in the 'Cats scoring 48 points in the paint. He only had 12 points on eight attempts last time against Cairns, who will be looking to crowd his space again.

That’s what happened to Hogg on Thursday, managing just four points on three shots in the final 15 minutes, and with McCall and Pinder sidelined Sunday, the Snakes need more from their All-NBL Second Teamer down the stretch. DJ has averaged 3.2 dimes in his past nine games, and his teammates must make good reads to capitalise on the crowd he’ll draw.

Shannon Scott v Corey Webster – Cairns went 6-0 in Pinder’s first stint out, largely thanks to Scott delivering 16.2ppg on 16/29 from range. He went back into his shell with the roster at full strength, but come finals time on Thursday he stepped up with 17 points on 3/6 triples, six boards, three dimes and three steals. Can he fill McCall’s absence on Sunday?

With Bul Kuol likely to go to Cotton, that will include subduing Webster, who delivered Perth back to the finals with his 26 points at 64 per cent, including 5/6 from midrange, six rebounds and five assists against Sydney. He struggled on Thursday, and was held to two points on 1/6 in Round 18 by the Snakes, but that won’t worry the super-confident Kiwi.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SHANNON SCOTT. BACK-TO-BACK TRIPLES ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/3SScott?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@3SScott</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/TyOub4M8TD">pic.twitter.com/TyOub4M8TD</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1623643080439267328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Bryce Cotton made an ominous statement after the Wildcats lost to Cairns in Round 18, knowing his team would have to win three-straight elimination games to make it to the NBL23 Playoffs. 

“Right now I think Xs and Os go out the window, it’s going to come down to who wants it,” Cotton said.

After his teammates carried him over the line against Sydney on the final day of the regular season, and through three brick-laden quarters against the Phoenix, Bryce was hungrier than ever.

“You guys were enamoured by the 3/29 (shooting), well that just means an avalanche,” coach John Rillie said.

“Water always find its level. When you're a pro and you really embrace what you're about in your profession you’ll get rewarded. No one was surprised with Bryce, it was just a matter of when it was going to happen.

“He has great confidence in his own ability but I think his teammates give him great confidence as well.”

The Wildcats are a confident unit right now, running up 202 points and 38 assists in their first two must-win clashes, putting them on the precipice of the final four.

Their all-around team effort to stay close enough to the Phoenix, then dominate them in all aspects of the final term, had coach Rillie effusive in his praise.

TaShawn Thomas had 13 points, eight rebounds and eight assists to flirt with a triple-double, while Luke Travers had 11 points, nine boards, two dimes, a steal and a block as that pair combined for eight crucial o-boards.

Brady Manek was red hot in the first half, his three-point threat helping loosen the shackles on his star guard.

“We had some contributors to allow us to get to that stage and allow (Bryce) to take over the game,” Rillie said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In Bryce we trust!<br><br>That performance was special, BC. ?? <a href="https://t.co/ScFTLkouyO">pic.twitter.com/ScFTLkouyO</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1623845694862954496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“One of the things I value about (Manek) is his shot-making ability in the big moment. We’re getting towards that stage of the season, he’s performed at that level at his previous stops.

“When we were putting the team together, that’s one of the ingredients we needed, because Bryce needs guys like that around him to allow him to do that – TaShawn, Travers, all the pieces came together in the fourth quarter.”

Perhaps the most pleasing contributor was Mitch Norton. Many observers expected Perth to start their decline the year Damian Martin retired, but Norton produced a stunning NBL21 to help guide his team to the grand final even without Cotton in the playoffs.

While injuries the past two years have left Norton a shadow of his former self and Perth’s defensive output has reflected that, he was back near his best in Thursday’s second half.

“I felt like Mitch was putting great heat on the backcourt,” Rillie said.

“He picked up Browne, turned him, they weren’t initiating their offensive as early as they were previously, then he got downhill to allow Bryce, TaShawn, Brady to play in some of their sweet spots offensively.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TT THROWS DOWN THE HAMMER! ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN, via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/ULm1YhAjF4">pic.twitter.com/ULm1YhAjF4</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1623606906924171264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

His return to form potentially sets up an advantage in depth and experience for the Wildcats in Sunday’s Play-In game in Cairns.

While the Taipans won bench scoring 32-4 the last time these teams met, coach Adam Forde drastically shortened his rotation in the qualifying final against Tasmania and it didn’t work out, and they’ll be stretched even more with McCall ruled out.

Forde suspected the moment got to them a little on Thursday as fatigue and frustration set in.

“For a lot of these guys it’s their first post-season type game and they're understanding the nature of that beast,” he said.

“I felt like there were some uncharacteristic type behaviours out there. Whether that’s to do with the moment or not, I’ll be making assumptions, but Tassie came in with a mindset in that first quarter and really exploited it.

“We've got to be better with our moment, we dwelled on it, we were reacting to turnovers, we were dropping heads. You’ve got to move on and play the next possessions, get the ball back.

“I think for little moments throughout the game we potentially showed our lack of experience, but now we are getting more experience from it, and how quickly we can turn that around for a sudden-death in two days is important.”

The Taipans beat their western rivals comprehensively in Perth just nine days ago, slowing the Wildcats’ vaunted offence through disciplined switching and not helping too early on Cotton’s drives.

That shut down the Perth’s dizzying ball movement and allowed them just 13 assists for the game, their lowest total this season.

While the knowledge they have a sound defensive plan will bring confidence, Forde knows the Wildcats have hit a lot of confidence-boosting shots since then.

“Perth are riding a bit of momentum at the moment with the great game to finish out the season against Sydney and the great game tonight against South East, we’re still trying to find out momentum in this short stretch,” he said.

“We will take confidence from the fact that we beat them, but I'm sure Perth’s taking confidence that they’ve got us twice here.”