21 Questions for NBL21

By Liam Santamaria

Buckle up. It’s going to be a bumpy ride!

With the start of the 2021 NBL season fast approaching, excitement is building for what is sure to be a roller-coaster of a competition.

Amidst a landscape of uncertainty, there are at least couple of things we know for sure.

One is that the challenges will be plentiful. From scheduling to travel and everything in-between, the league, clubs and fans will all need to be flexible and constantly ready to adapt.

The other certainty is that the league is once again loaded with talent. The action on the floor – whenever and wherever it takes place – will be fire.

So, as we head towards opening night, let’s delve into some of the talking points that are currently swirling around the league, in terms of that on-court action.

Here are twenty-one questions that NBL21 will soon begin to answer.

 

Will Melbourne United go undefeated?

That was the suggestion from star recruit Jock Landale recently, when he told AAP that he thinks Melbourne “have the potential to go undefeated.”

The answer: no, that’s not happening.

 

Who will be the best Next Star?

This is a tough one. Each of the league’s three new Next Stars – Josh Giddey, Mojave King and Justinian Jessup – have impressed in preseason action and all should have sizeable roles on their squads.

For me, though, I suspect it’ll be Sydney’s second-year man, Didi Louzada, who has the biggest impact. Louzada was brilliant at times last season and, with that kind of experience under his belt, I’m expecting far greater consistency from him this time around.

 

Will Casper Ware bounce back?

Speaking of Sydney, their star point guard vastly underperformed in last year’s COVID-impacted Grand Final as his squad ultimately fell short to Bryce Cotton and the ‘Cats.  

Known for his ability to deliver in big moments, Ware just couldn’t get it going in the championship series, shooting just 20 percent from the field including a disastrous 1-for-23 from long range. Meanwhile, down the other end, Cotton was doing his thing and Perth claimed a second-straight title.

Coming into this season many have written Ware off, saying that his best is now behind him. We will see.

 

Can Adelaide’s big men co-exist?

This is one of the key questions for the 36ers.

Head coach Conner Henry and GM of Basketball Jeff Van Groningen have built a new-look squad around two talented big men, Daniel Johnson and Isaac Humphries, and their ability to excel while playing together will be crucial to Adelaide’s success.

Both ‘DJ’ and Humphries possess versatile offensive skill-sets and thus should be able to make it work at that end of the floor. The question is: how will it work defensively? There are a heap of very fast, mobile fours and fives ready to rip into NBL21 and I’m curious to see how the Sixers go keeping the clamps on those guys.

 

Will Kouat Noi make the leap?

The talented Taipan was terrific in his rookie campaign last season and showed signs against Melbourne on New Year’s Eve that he’s ready to take his game to another level. If he does, the Snakes should be right back in the championship mix.

 

Which new import will blow up?

Every year at least one team brings in a guy that explodes onto the NBL scene. I’m talking an import who maybe flew a little under the radar initially but winds up exceeding expectations and being part of MVP conversations.

Last year that guy was Scott Machado and, to a slightly lesser extent, Jae’Sean Tate. A couple of seasons ago Demitrius Conger was that guy when he finished second in MVP voting behind Bryce Cotton.

This year, I think people are sleeping a little on Brisbane’s Vic Law. After playing for Orlando in the NBA bubble back in August, Law will be leaned on to play a huge role for the Bullets and I get the feeling he’s set for a big, big year.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you didn&#39;t know, Vic is bringing the strong hand of the Law to the <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BrisbaneBullets</a> ??<br><br>Can the former <a href="https://twitter.com/OrlandoMagic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OrlandoMagic</a> two-way man lead the Bullets back to the post-season in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a>? <a href="https://t.co/QrRQsFhNcS">pic.twitter.com/QrRQsFhNcS</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1344114719871754240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 30, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


 

Can Cam Bairstow stay healthy?

When Bairstow’s on the floor, he’s a highly effective NBL player. The problem is, he’s far too often banged up. Indeed niggling injuries have already been an issue for the former NBA forward throughout the pre-season. If the under-new-management Hawks are going to make some noise in NBL21, Bairstow will need to be a productive piece to their puzzle.

 

Will Keifer Sykes be better than John Roberson?

He’ll hit less threes and he’ll probably average less points but yes, I think he’ll be better.

Sykes just brings a lot more to the table for the Phoenix at the point guard position than Roberson did. Don’t get me wrong, Roberson was a lights-out shooter. But he wasn’t a floor general. Nor was he an impact defender. Sykes, on the other hand, has the potential to be both of those things and his early pick-up points should set the kind of tone defensively that the Phoenix sorely missed last season.

 

Is Craig Moller ready?

With Xavier Cooks (foot) set to miss three-to-four months, Moller will step in as the starting power forward for the Kings. After four years in the league, this is his big opportunity.

 

Will Nathan Sobey play the two?

Brisbane’s star guard is at his best when he’s running lanes, catching kick-aheads and getting all over the rim.

For the past couple of years, however, Sobey’s primarily been used as a point guard and yeah, it hasn’t worked. That’s not to say Sobey hasn’t been good. He has. The thing is, he’s just much more effective at the two.

The more Andrej Lemanis plays Sobey alongside Jason Cadee – and, to a lesser extent, Tamuri Wigness – in NBL21, rather than in front of them, the better he and the Bullets will be.

 

Who gets a triple-double?

I’m going to say there are three guys – NZ’s Lamar Patterson, Adelaide’s Josh Giddey and Melbourne’s Mitch McCarron – who will give it a shake from time to time.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Next Star Josh Giddey (<a href="https://twitter.com/GiddeyJosh?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@GiddeyJosh</a>) in his first game for the <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Adelaide36ers</a> in preseason ?<br><br>1?3? points<br>8? rebounds<br>6? assists<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/VpMhENbzbO">pic.twitter.com/VpMhENbzbO</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1327194471369359360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


 

Will the Wildcats three-peat?

I don’t think they will. In fact, the better question is…

 

Will the Wildcats make the finals?

This is, of course, usually a stupid question. This year I don’t think it is.

I mean, let’s break it down. From last season to this season, the two-time defending champs appear to have gotten worse at almost every position.

In terms of their likely starting line-up, they’ve turned future Hall of Famer Damian Martin into Mitch Norton, 2019 GF MVP Terrico White into Todd Blanchfield, two-time All-NBL First Team selection Nick Kay into 19-year-old DP Luke Travers and, in the middle, NBA veteran Miles Plumlee into first-year pro John Mooney.

Now, don’t get me wrong… these guys are all talented players. Norton actually started for the ‘Cats in the finals last year and is an elite defender while Blanchfield can certainly fill it up. It’s just that players like Martin, White, Kay and Plumlee are very difficult to replace.

As for their reserves, the ‘Cats have retained Clint Steindl and Jesse Wagstaff (as well as youngster Wani Swaka Lo Buluk) but have turned ‘Norto’ into Kevin White, Rhys Vague into Jarred Bairstow and the injured Majok Majok into, by all accounts, Tom Jervis (who appears to be coming out retirement).

Yes, they’ve brought back the best player in the league but all-in-all that’s a vastly inferior squad in a league where a number of teams, particularly Melbourne and New Zealand, appear to have gotten better.

The Wildcats have made the finals for thirty-four consecutive seasons and, without a shadow of a doubt, are the gold standard of sporting organisations in all of Australian sport. They’ve also built an enormous home-court advantage through the influence of their loyal and passionate Red Army. All that being said, I reckon this group – as it’s currently constructed – is no certainty to keep that streak alive.

 

When will Bryce Cotton become a citizen?

This one right here is the really big question for the ‘Cats as Cotton becoming an Aussie will enable them to make a major adjustment to their line-up.

If his papers come through Perth can shift the MVP into a non-restricted ‘Marquee Player’ spot which will allow them to bring in another import while saving a boatload of luxury tax. That would change things a lot and it’s probably fair to say that their championship hopes depend on it.  

 

Will Deng Adel win Best Defensive Player?

Speaking to NBL Media back in October, the Hawks’ star recruit told me one of his goals for the upcoming season was to claim the recently-renamed Damian Martin Trophy as the league’s Best Defensive Player.

Let’s be honest, it’s a long shot. But go ahead, young man… shoot for the sky!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You might know him as a high flyer, but Deng Adel (<a href="https://twitter.com/Foreverdeng?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foreverdeng</a>) has been studying tape in quarantine with an eye on the DPOY award in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/NukvP8T38H">pic.twitter.com/NukvP8T38H</a></p>&mdash; Hawks Basketball (@thehawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/thehawks/status/1318351138647732224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


 

Can Reuben Te Rangi and Cam Gliddon bounce back?

South East Melbourne will need them to, that’s for sure.

I’m expecting Te Rangi to play a key role for his new team although probably without a sharp spike in his statistical production. There’s no doubt his defensive versatility will be important for that squad.

As for Gliddon, the Phoenix will need him to get buckets. They’re going to make a focus of him offensively and you can guarantee head coach Simon Mitchell will be encouraging his new recruit to be super aggressive in looking for his shot. Interestingly, I’m told the Boomers guard shot the lights out in a closed-door scrimmage against NZ the other day, which is a great sign on the eve of the season. Phoenix fans will be looking for much more of that.

 

Is Mitch McCarron the man for the job?

I’m all in on Melbourne’s decision to roll Money Makin’ Mitch out as their starting PG. He’s one of the best defenders in the league and his unselfishness should help Chris Goulding, Scotty Hopson and Jock Landale blossom as United’s primary offensive targets.

That being said, this is a big year for McCarron. The 28-year-old has been looking for greater opportunities to handle the rock and, in a contract year, will step out as the starting PG for the championship faves. It’s go time.

 

Will the Breakers play at home?

Man, I hope so.

 

After suffering ‘avocado hand’ (yep, it’s a real thing, look it up), what will happen next involving Corey Webster?

Expected the unexpected! There are very few dull moments in the life and times of C-Web.

 

Speaking of the Websters, will Corey’s bro be as good as advertised?

Yes he will.

Here’s the good word on Tai Webster: he’s going to be one of the best locals in the league this season. He’s quick, has great handles, can score in a variety of ways and is an excellent passer. He also plays with a kind of self-belief that has him ready to come out and take names. When all is said and done, I think he’ll be right there with Lamar Patterson as New Zealand’s best player in NBL21.

 

Who will win the inaugural NBL Cup?

Nine teams. Thirty-six games. One month. One city. One winner. This should be fun!

 

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