The Run Home: Seven games remain

The finale of one of the closest regular seasons in the history of the NBL is continuing to careen towards us, and NBL analyst Liam Santamaria broke down exactly what awaits every team in the competition in the final round.

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Santa’s tip

“I think it’s probably going to be Sydney missing out if I had to pick.

“Firstly, I give the Phoenix every chance of winning that game. Sydney has been very hot and cold over recent times and mostly fairly lukewarm, and the Phoenix have shown an ability to get up for a game like this.

“I give Brisbane every chance of winning in New Zealand on Friday night, I suspect Illawarra will grab one of those wins, and I can’t see New Zealand losing to Adelaide on the final day.

“If all the results go in that kind of way, I see Sydney on the outside looking in.”

Ninth | 11-16 | 95.51%

The run home:
NZB (H)

Liam Santamaria said: “There are certainly a lot of questions swirling around the 36ers to finish the season in terms of re-signing key players and what their coaching situation is going to look like next season.

“Hopefully, for the team’s sake, they can put all that aside to finish the season on a high, because the way that 36ers group has played since the turn of the calendar year has been one of the stories of the second half of the season, and that final game against New Zealand has the potential to decide who makes the post-season and who doesn’t.

“Hopefully for the team, the club and their terrific fanbase they can play really well in that final game, with the season on the line for not only their opponents, but for one or two other teams watching.”

Fifth | 13-14 | 97.53%

The run home:
NZB (A)

Santamaria said: “I think it’s been a successful season for Brisbane, whether or not they make the post-season. Justin Schueller, his coaching staff, the new management and the players have done a great job of changing the way they go about things within that organisation and that has set them up for further success moving forward.

“Of course, what they really want is to make Finals and continue their tilt for the championship. If they beat New Zealand on Friday night they’re in, so that will be their sole focus leading into the week. If they lose, they’re going to be relying on South East Melbourne to pull off an upset over the Sydney Kings.

“Their percentage is poor, they don’t want to have to rely on other results, so the job is right there for them to do. Go to New Zealand against a team that is full of emotion and looking to celebrate on of the legends of the club and spoil the party to lock in a Finals spot.

Seventh | 11-16 | 96.32%

The run home:
MEL (H)

Santamaria said: “Hopefully we see a full 40-minute performance in front of the fans to finish off the season for Cairns. I thought Adam Forde’s group played pretty well in Perth over the course of three quarters, but it all unraveled in that final term.

“They’re obviously looking towards the future, playing some guys that might be a little earlier in their careers and who may be in calculations for their team moving forward. In front of their home fans on a Friday night against the ladder leaders, it would be great to see them finish the year with a really solid performance.”

Fourth | 13-13 | 100.77%

The run home:
PER (H)
MEL (A)

Santamaria said: “The fact the Hawks can still drop out of the top six, despite currently sitting fourth, just goes to show how close it is. Again, 14 wins gets you in at this stage so they just need to snatch a win against one of the teams that are already locked into a top-two finish.

“They have a healthy percentage which sets them up well, but if they go 0-2 for the weekend and the teams below them have a successful round they could be in jeopardy. The Hawks fans will be hoping this Cinderella story can continue for at least another couple of weeks.”

First | 19-7 | 107.27%

The run home:
CNS (A)
ILL (H)

Santamaria said: “I think the approach from Dean Vickerman will be for everybody to play quality minutes and for the team to play at a high level. If you have your sights set on winning the championship like Melbourne do, they’ll be approaching this weekend sensibly, but with a competitive mindset.

“They’ll want to finish the regular season on a high and go into the Playoffs with good momentum and really solid form.”

Sixth | 12-14 | 100.35%

The run home:
BRI (H)
ADE (A)

Santamaria said: “If you get to 14 wins you’re in, so that will be the mentality for the Breakers heading into this final round. They have an opportunity to beat Brisbane and beat Adelaide to get to 14 wins – and then it doesn’t matter what anybody else has done.

“But if they lose to Brisbane, the most they’ll be able to get to is 13 wins and it’s all going to come down to that final game, and what they need to do there will depend on what happens with other results involved Illawarra and Sydney.

“The focus for the Breakers will very much be on right now and on Friday night, taking care of business against the Bullets and taking another big step forward towards locking up a top six spot.”

Second | 17-9 | 104.09%

The run home:
ILL (A)
TAS (A)

Santamaria said: “It’s a tough weekend to finish off the season for the Wildcats. They play two really quality opponents on the road, and with second spot essentially established for them, it’s going to be fascinating to watch how John Rillie approaches it.

“Things have been tough at times over this regular season for the Wildcats, and they’ve handled that adversity well. They’re going to face more challenges in the Finals, so they’ll be saying 'let’s go out on the road in this final round and play at a high level to set us up to do the same in difficult circumstances in the post-season across the upcoming month'.”

Tenth | 10-17 | 91.79%

The run home:
SYD (H)

Santamaria said: “The Phoenix have a big opportunity to play spoiler in the final round in a big way with their game against Sydney. There’s the potential for them to do what they did against Perth a couple of years ago and pull off a win in the final round to deny their opponents a spot in the post-season.

“I think Phoenix fans are hoping that they get a few healthy bodies back this round who have been absent in recent times and they can end the season for the two-time defending champions.”

Seventh | 12-15 | 100.59%

The run home:
SEM (A)

Santamaria said: “I’d be watching nervously on Friday night when Brisbane play New Zealand, because of Brisbane wins, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on the Sydney Kings. Essentially, they’re going to need to beat the Phoenix to make finals. If they lose, there is still a way in which they can qualify, but it becomes highly unlikely and they’re relying on other results.

“Their fate is very much in their own hands and they need to turn up at John Cain Arena and put last week’s loss to Illawarra behind them and really set themselves up for a return to the post-season.

Third | 15-12 | 107.46%

The run home:
PER (H)

Santamaria said: “It’s mathematically still possible Tasmania could drop out of third spot, but it’s very unrealistic. Their approach to the final round, I suspect, will be to finish the season on a high, defend the island and reward the home fans with a 16^th win.

“Any time you can get a home win in front of a sold-out home crowd, you should be trying to do that. Especially with the FIBA break coming up around the corner, I think Scott Roth will be approaching this final game like any other, where the JackJumpers go out, execute on both ends of the floor and try to get the win.”