The run home: How Round 20 is shaping up

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

The battle for Finals hoops will, once again, come down to the wire in NBL24.

Round 19 of the NBL24 season is done and dusted, and although we are closer to figuring out which six teams will contest this campaign’s Finals, the immediate futures of most of the competition’s sides are still yet to be decided.

As of now there are nine teams in contention for a Finals place. South East Melbourne’s defeat to Tasmania on Saturday mathematically took the Phoenix out of contention. Of those nine remaining teams, Melbourne and Perth have both locked away spots in the top two, which means they will progress straight to the final four teams in the Playoffs.

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That means there are seven teams mathematically competing for three positions. Tasmania have all but locked away third place thanks to their big Round 19 win over South East Melbourne, and the likelihood of Adelaide and Cairns forcing their way into the top six – while there – is slim.

As the ladder stands it’s likely one of Illawarra, New Zealand, Brisbane and Sydney will miss out on a position in the post-season.

Both the Hawks and Breakers hold their own destiny in their hands as the only two teams within that competing four to be contesting two games in the final rounds.

Should Brisbane suffer defeat to New Zealand on Friday night, it’s likely you can strike a line through Justin Schueller’s side’s resurgent campaign. Should the Bullets win, New Zealand’s clash with Adelaide could determine the Breakers’ Finals fate.

Illawarra faces the dramatic task of taking on both Perth and Melbourne in the final round, however Justin Tatum’s side has had the wood over the Wildcats all season long. One win from two games will likely see them finish in the top six and allow one of the fairytale stories of the season to continue for at least one more chapter.

Sydney’s loss to the Hawks has set alarm bells ringing for the back-to-back reigning champions. They’re currently sitting in seventh place on the ladder, however a win over bottom-placed South East Melbourne should secure a spot in the Finals due to Sydney’s superior percentage over the Bullets, Breakers and Hawks.

If there’s one thing NBL24 has taught fans though, it’s that there are no certainties to be had in any game this season. Every moment matters, and every moment will be broadcast live on ESPN via Kayo.