Stat Chat: Round 17 (What's Hot & What's Not)

Statistics ... whether you love them or hate them, stats play a huge part in sport.

Whether it's when recruiting a player, how teams prepare, how a starting five is setup, or just about any facet of the game, numbers are crunched and relied upon as fact. 

This year, 2018 NBL Champion and expert commentator Pete Hooley will be our resident stats man on NBL.com.au, providing a rundown of all the key numbers from the weekend's games. 

Keep an eye out after every round for the latest edition of 'Stat Chat'. 

What’s Hot – 2.3

With a mathematical chance to make the postseason Adelaide went into Cairns and seemed to not only embrace the challenge, but to accept it and play free. Defensively there were still some concerns as they gave up 96 points. However, offensively they looked much better. With the ball swinging around the floor Adelaide had 23 assists to just 10 turnovers. That 2.3 assist to turnover ratio is one of their better performances of the year.

What’s Not – 26

As mentioned above, defensively there were still concerns for Adelaide in this game. Adam Forde spoke post game about how they believed Sam Waardenburg had an advantage and hence put the ball in his hands. He wasn’t wrong. Waardenburg had a career night, scoring 26 points on 54% from the field.

Ian Clark.

What’s Hot – 20

It was another tough round for the Bullets, who had previously shown signs of playing some inspired basketball. Thankfully, Tyler Johnson continues to get the job done every night for Brisbane. In both losses in Round 17 Johnson had 20 points and averaged 4.5 assists as he slotted into the starting guard spot for the injured Jason Cadee. A finalist for Sixth Man of the Year, let’s hope we see a lot more of Johnson in the NBL next season and beyond.

What’s Not – 0

It’s not often that a team will have zero players with a positive +/- in a game, but the Bullets managed that in their 28-point loss to the Breakers. I say it doesn’t happen often, because usually there will be players who play a minute or two at the end of a game when the other team takes their foot of the gas. Unfortunately, even the three players who played just two minutes in this game, finished with a negative +/-.

Tyler Johnson.

What’s Hot – 73

The Taipans had three games in a hectic Round 17, and whilst they didn’t get the results they were hoping for DJ Hogg was a beast and scored 73 points across the triple header. After 26-points against the Phoenix to open the round, Hogg did all he could to try and lead a wounded team over the line. He's had an outstanding season, and no doubt will find himself with a much deserved spot on an All-NBL team.

What’s Not – 2

With the devastating news coming out about Cairns’ superstar Keanu Pinder, it looks as though Round 17 couldn’t have got much worse for the Taipans. However, with the disappointing loss to Adelaide the Taipans look as though they have said goodbye to second spot and a chance to miss the play-in tournament. With New Zealand having a much better percentage, the Snakes will be hoping the Breakers stumble in the last round of the season. Unfortunately, their top-two rivals play the bottom two teams in its last two fixtures.

DJ Hogg.

What’s Hot – 3

The Hawks have been desperate for some good news and change of fortune all season long, and they may have got it. Star import recruit Justin Robinson has put pen to paper and decided to return to the Hawks for next season on a redemption mission. The Hawks guard, who wears the number three singlet, played just one game in NBL23 before suffering a season ending injury which started the derailment of Illawarra’s campaign.

What’s Not – 3

Three is also the number of wins the Hawks have across the entire season, and they're staring down the barrel of what could be a franchise worst year in the league. If they want to end the season on a positive note they’re going to have to do it the hard way as they face the Breakers and Tasmania - two teams who are still playing for a significant spot on the NBL ladder.

Justin Robinson.

What’s Hot – 40

There’s been a few different numbers reported about what the magic winning number is for Melbourne to get the percentage jump over the Phoenix and land in the postseason. It’s around 40 points that United will need to beat Adelaide by if they want to leap their city rival. They also will have a chance to make it if Perth faulter across their last two games in Round 18 as well.

What’s Not – 16-2

Melbourne United needed to win to put themselves in the box seat for a finals berth that wouldn’t involve them sweating on other results. They started their game against New Zealand in impressive fashion and were primed to have a good opportunity of winning that game. However, a 16-2 run to New Zealand in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter, put an end to that. They still had chances to win that game, but now the pressure all comes down to this weekend.

Chris Goulding.

What’s Hot – +18

With all the superstars the Breakers have on their roster, we at times forget about some of the veterans on the team who step up when the team needs them the most. Enter Rob Loe. Loe was a beast in his 18 minutes of playing time against United. He had 15 points, six rebounds and was a +18 in his limited time on the floor. At full strength this team feels like the perfect puzzle.

What’s Not – 2

The Breakers are in a luxurious position where they have the depth to cover off nights from their starters. Against United, in what was a must win game, Will McDowell-White and Tom Abercrombie played 22 minutes and 28 minutes respectively – yet combined for just two points. They both can still have positive impacts on the game without scoring, but it does add extra pressure to those around them when they are struggling to find the bottom of the net.

Tom Abercrombie.

What’s Hot – 40

What else could it be? Perth superstar Bryce Cotton put on an absolute clinic at RAC Arena against the Hawks. His 40-point outing came at a ridiculously efficient 53 per cent from the floor and 64 per cent from three. He also had seven rebounds and four assists and just sent a friendly reminder to everyone out there that he will always be in the MVP conversation. Side note, after having 35-points through three quarters, he really should have walked away with a 50-piece.

What’s Not – 32

It’s always a tough trip down to Tasmania to play the JackJumpers in front of their crowd. Add to the fact they just came off a disappointing performance two days prior, and that challenge gets even harder. That was evident from the opening quarter as Tasmania piled on 32 points in the first 10 minutes. Perth did well to claw it back, but when you give a team like Tasmania that confidence offensively in front of their fans, look out.

Bryce Cotton.

What’s Hot – 2

It felt like an elimination game of sorts against the Taipans, but the Phoenix dug deep when it mattered most. In particular, with the game and essentially their season on the line they came up with two massive steals off back-to-back inbound passes from Cairns that essentially won them the game. Yes, they were poor decisions from the Taipans, but the full court defensive pressure from South East Melbourne forced the passes to be made. It was game over after that.

What’s Not – 111

Anytime you score 106 points, you should be coming away with a win. Unfortunately, the Phoenix gave up 111 to Sydney - at almost 57 per cent from the floor. The Kings are the benchmark in the competition, and they flexed their muscle offensively in this one.

Gary Browne.

What’s Hot – 57/53/89

I mean, what a ridiculous shooting performance from Sydney against the Phoenix. Their 111 points came at almost 57% from the field, 53% from the three and 89% from the charity stripe. They have had their issues from the line all season, especially at home, but they knocked down 25/28 in this game. With how strong they are defensively, are they the best two-way team in the competition?

What’s Not – 15.5

It’s hard to imagine there were any negatives to come out of an impressive round for Sydney, but no doubt Chase Buford wouldn’t have been thrilled with the way his team started and ended against Tasmania on Friday. The Kings scored just 14 points in the first quarter against the JackJumpers who had 25 themselves, and then closed the game with 17 in the last to Tasmania’s 23. Thankfully they straight up dominated the middle twenty minutes, scoring 60 points in those two quarters.

Kouat Noi.

What’s Hot – 5

The Jackjumpers needed to bounce back and they did just that. With five players in double figures Tasmania scored 102 points against Perth and put themselves in the box seat for yet another finals appearance. They are another team that pride themselves on the defensive end, so if they happen to combine that with feeling good on the other end, can they give this a shake in the postseason?

What’s Not – 13

The loss to Sydney wouldn’t have been a pleasant review for Tasmania. After a blistering first quarter, they seemed to go away from what they do best. On the night they had just 13 assists, which obviously means they struggled to make shots. However, the ball seemed to really stick and a lot of players were trying to make things happen off the dribble. Which is a direct contrast of their beautiful execution we usually see in the half court.

Will Magnay.