R6 Preview: Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 20 February

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: SBS Viceland; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch


The last time

Melbourne 75 (Landale 16, Baba 14, McCarron 13) d Perth 71 (Cotton 24, Mooney 15, Norton 11), Round 4, Bendigo Basketball Stadium

While Bryce Cotton toyed with United’s defence for much of the game, for a period bridging three-quarter-time Yudai Baba used his length and lower-body physicality to slow the MVP, and that proved the catalyst for a decisive 27-9 run from which Perth could not recover. Bryce almost pinched the win with seven straight points late, but an uncharacteristic ball-handling error with his side down two with 25 seconds to play gifted Melbourne the W.

The now
The Wildcats walked away from that contest knowing their 2021 reincarnation lacks support for Cotton, and that was something they needed to fix fast, especially with an extended period away from the west ahead. It appeared a case of problem solved when eight Cats scored 8 points or more in a 31-point destruction of the Phoenix, but in the rematch three days later, Cotton was held to 15 points and his team managed just 71 at 41 per cent.

Melbourne walked away from their Round 4 win knowing they still struggle mightily to match the Wildcats in the possession game, copping a rebounding lesson and almost losing the contest despite holding the Cats to 34 per cent from the field. The plus side was their ability to shoot 49 per cent themselves despite losing Chris Goulding late in the third term, and they backed that up with 91 points on 13-of-29 from outside against the Hawks.


The stats
 
 - Melbourne grabbed just 16 per cent of their o-boards and 64 per cent of their d-boards against Perth in Round 4

 - In that game, Cotton made 7 two-point baskets at 50 per cent, while his teammates combined managed just 9 twos at 38 per cent

 - United were -12 in 29 minutes against the Cats with Scott Hopson on the floor, compared to +17 in the remaining 11 minutes

 - Perth’s bench averages an 8^th-ranked 18.8ppg at 36 per cent, and managed just 13 points at 23 per cent against Melbourne, whose reserves lead the NBL with 30.5ppg at 49 per cent


The key men

John Mooney – The rookie big’s stat-line was pretty handy last time against Melbourne – 15 points, 7 rebounds, 5 o-boards, 5 assists, 3 steals and a block. He could have been a match-winner had he connected at better than 5-of-17, perhaps spooked by Melbourne’s ploy of leaving him wide open. Instead, his counterpart Jock Landale came up big down the stretch with 16 points at 71 per cent, leaving Mooney to ponder this rematch for the past fortnight.

Yudai Baba – For almost 12 minutes during Melbourne’s match-winning run, Cotton went scoreless on 0-of-5 shooting with just 1 assist. There were two keys to that, firstly and most importantly United’s ability to throw Perth out of offence and force Bryce into late-clock isolation, and the Baba’s efforts to make each shot a tough one. Over the rest of the game, Cotton had 24 points at 64 per cent and 5 assists, showing just how crucial that period was.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bryce Cotton is LIGHTING IT UP in the fourth! <a href="https://t.co/5EryhlQSte">pic.twitter.com/5EryhlQSte</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1358322037572341760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 7, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



The quotes

In the epic Eric Roth film Forrest Gump the catch cry is “Run Forrest, run”.

In the impressive opening month of Melbourne United’s impressive NBL21 season, it has been “Go Baba, go”.

That’s what coach Dean Vickerman can be heard yelling time and again as he urges his Japanese speedster to burn the opposition in transition.

Baba started the season as a sparkplug off the bench when the needed elite energy, playing between 11 and 17 minutes in the opening four games.
 
But with Chris Goulding and Shea Ili sidelined, he’s suddenly become a headline act, and remarkably his intensity has rarely waned.

“I was talking to him about playing 24-25 minutes because he plays at such a high intensity and I didn’t think he could play much more than that,” coach Dean Vickerman said after his team’s win in Wollongong.

“But we got 30 out of him tonight and just that continual heat on the rim he puts in transition and gets us those cheap ones ... He’s so critical to us right now, he takes the best guy at the moment and wears him out as much as he can.

“There are NBA people talking to me about him and why not, he’s an elite defender, and if he continues to shoot the three-ball at a high level, why not?”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jack White with the transition defence and then Yudai Baba turns on the jets the other way ? <a href="https://t.co/GvpNDkIapd">pic.twitter.com/GvpNDkIapd</a></p>&mdash; Jordan McCallum (@jordanmcnbl) <a href="https://twitter.com/jordanmcnbl/status/1359483102100287488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



Baba first grabbed the NBL community’s attention with his second-half efforts on Cotton, but while limiting the MVP for a few minutes was lauded by many, he’ll know he needs to deliver for longer to get another win over Perth this time around.

Cotton was still the dominant offensive player on the court with 24 points and 6 dimes, and Trevor Gleeson will have his supporting cast better prepared to deal with Melbourne’s disruption.

“Bryce has proved himself, he gets the number one attention every game, he’s just a clutch player, knows when to take control of the game, plays unselfish out there,” Gleeson said.

“We’ve just got to get our other guys who aren't used to playing with him, to know to be aggressive and get on the scoreboard and not rely on Bryce too much.

“It’s really up to the rest of the team to raise the bar, certainly Bryce raises the bar for us.”

The bar dropped significantly for the defending champions last week in Melbourne, with the Phoenix delivering an embarrassing defeat.

“I don’t know, you got any ideas?” Gleeson said post-game when asked to explain his team’s capitulation.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Beating the buzzer ? <a href="https://t.co/aAivmXJlJE">pic.twitter.com/aAivmXJlJE</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1360838194317586435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 14, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


“We lacked the discipline needed on both ends of the floor, to execute offensively and make them play defence, we came down and took quick shots and I think Sykes was getting any shot he wanted out there, all of them were getting any shot they wanted to, we weren’t able to maintain the pressure on defence like we did last game.

“On the defensive end it’s ball pressure, shrink the court and know what coverages we’re in. I thought we took the easy way out and (did) not do what the team needs defensively.

“Offensively we didn’t set screens, we didn’t cut hard and we didn’t move the ball, and that’s a recipe for disaster.”

It will be against Melbourne, but the positive for Perth is they struggled offensively last time against United and almost pinched the win on the back of a 16-5 offensive rebounding dominance.

Worryingly for United, they gave up another 15 to the Hawks last round, after allowing just 39 o-boards in their first four contests.

“We were just disappointed with the way we were rebounding, it was a bit of a constant throughout the night,” Vickerman said.

“I thought we made a bit of a change in the middle of the third quarter and we committed to that, and limited their second chance points.”

That’s been the beauty of Melbourne so far this year, having players always able to step up and fill the gaps, and they’ll be looking to do the same on Saturday to keep Cotton quiet and move to 7-0 on the season.

“People have talked about our rotations this year, that we don’t play our superstars enough, but this is why,” Vickerman said.

“You get everybody ready for the next opportunity, and I’m proud of the way guys have stepped up.”