R18 Preview: Brisbane Bullets vs Sydney Kings

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 13 May

Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Broadcast: ESPN; Sky Sports NZ; SBS On Demand; Twitch

The last time
Sydney 90 (Moller  20, Martin 16, Vasiljevic 13) d Brisbane 71 (Sobey 31, Cadee 11) Round 12, Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

A Bullets team starting Blake Jones and with only Tamuri Wigness and Tyrell Harrison available on the bench were no match for the Kings. Thanks to the brilliance of Nathan Sobey, the visitors led by two at half-time, but the petrol tank soon ran dry after intermission, Brisbane scoring just 11 points in the third term and then being blown out of the water late as DJ Vasiljevic and Craig Moller combined for 23 final-quarter points.


The now
Brisbane are finally resembling a full NBL squad once again, with new import BJ Johnson hitting the court last week in Cairns and Lamar Patterson able to get through more than 28 minutes. Andrej Lemanis’ men dished 19 assists to 9 turnovers to resemble their formerly precise selves at that end, which will be crucial in this run of five straight home games that will define NBL21 for the Bullets, who sit just one game behind SE Melbourne and Sydney.

The Kings have the same number of losses as Brisbane, meaning a loss on Thursday will effectively put them outside the playoff picture for the first time since Round 11. Their overtime home loss to Adelaide was a shocker, coughing up a 16-point third quarter lead before being outscored 16-7 in the extra period. It marked the third-straight game the Kings had managed 81 points or less in regulation, something they need to remedy quickly.


The stats
 
 - The Kings sit second in the NBL in field-goal percentage (46%) and third in scoring (88.1ppg). In the past three games they’ve averaged 79.3 points in regulation and shot just 39 per cent from the floor

 - The biggest drop off has come inside the arc – where they’ve shot 43 per cent compared to their usual 53 per cent – and at the foul line, where they’ve averaged 12.7 attempts, down from 17.8 across their opening 25 games

 - Brisbane have scored 90 points or more in two of their past three games, both wins. They hadn’t reached that mark in their previous eight games for just two wins, but did so 11 times in their opening 15 games for an 8-3 record

 - In the Bullets’ win over Sydney they won points in the paint 50-36. In their two losses to the Kings, they’ve been outscored 98-54 in that category


The key men

Casper Ware – The Kings are 2-7 when Casper takes 17 shots or more, 9-7 when he shoots between 10 and 16, and 3-0 when he has single-figure attempts. Of course, those numbers depend on many things, including the cattle available to share the load, but Ware and Jarell Martin taking 44 of 83 shots between them against the Sixers was not a recipe for success, their combined 0-of-10 shooting over the final 10 minutes consigning the Kings to defeat.

Over that period their teammates were a combined 5-of-8 – and a combined 46 per cent for the game – and unless the Kings can find more shots for teammates the load is too big for the import duo, especially as Casper will have the job on Sobey, who has amassed 65 points, 21 rebounds and 21 assists over the past three games to continue his MVP-type season.

Lamar Patterson – In the Bullets’ past two wins, the man once known as Lamarvellous poured in 39 points at 58 per cent from the field and 5-of-8 from distance while dishing 6 dimes, as his team scored 95ppg. Compare that to Brisbane’s past two losses, where he has managed just 25 points at 31 per cent, 1-of-7 from the arc and only 2 assists. In those defeats, Brisbane have averaged 76.5ppg to highlight Lamar’s important to their offence.

The question for Sydney is who gets this defensive job, with Craig Moller the man most likely. However, Patterson’s girth is something that will be hard for the wiry Moller to handle, and with the Bullets looking to use their returning import out of the low block, the challenge for Adam Forde and Co is to find ways to help without giving up open looks.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Old faces in new but still old places.<br><br>Welcome back to the Brisbane colours LP.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/mY7DlP3tFq">pic.twitter.com/mY7DlP3tFq</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1379731795273347079?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


The quotes

Andrej Lemanis has been here before, and he knows what the run home is going to be like with four teams locked on 14 losses, and two more still holding onto hopes of a miracle run home.

“This is going to be a war, as it is every year down the stretch,” he said.

“We still have 10 games, it’s weird, that’s a lot of basketball, but this is going to continue to be physical, everyone’s going to be desperate, it’s going to be fun, a fun way to finish the season and this is us, we can control our own destiny, which is great.”

Two weeks ago it looked like Brisbane’s season was slipping away, having dropped seven of nine, but as they’ve started to get their roster healthy again, a light has appeared at the end of the tunnel.

“I'm proud of the way we came out and played tonight,” Lemanis said after a quality win in Cairns.

“We've been on the road for a while and definitely had our share of challenges, as every team has, we've certainly had to endure some challenging moments during the course of these last three months, we've been home for maybe 10 or 11 days.

“I thought that wore on us at times, but tonight I felt even in the warm-ups there was a good energy about the group.

“If we’re going to make a playoff push here it’s in our hands, there are no excuses, we have to come out and we have to play an appropriate style of basketball. For me that’s the pleasing thing, we went back to who we are tonight in terms of making the effort to do the hard things.

“Defensively we were en pointe, we were getting after it, offensively we made the effort to put heat on the rim and make the extra pass and make the extra plays.”



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">PUNCTUAT??ON.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/ncpTjH6qcQ">pic.twitter.com/ncpTjH6qcQ</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1391002998659338241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 8, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Most importantly, they scored 66 points from ones and twos, and their three-balls were often the result of penetration.

“We didn’t settle,” Lemanis said.

“I thought last week in the Adelaide game we settled and I think some of that was fatigue related, but tonight even though we got fatigues down the stretch I thought we continue to make the effort to make plays.

“None bigger than Hodgy’s offensive rebound kick-out three-ball to Lamar. Just the effort to go to the o-boards, that was reflective of those little things that people don’t necessarily notice, those little things make a difference.”

It’s a message Kings coach Adam Forde is preaching to his tired group, who have battled one injury setback after another this season, and finally welcome Xavier Cooks to the court on Thursday night in Brisbane.

“We had a couple of times when we had Adelaide in the bonus and we were settling for jumpshots, that’s a fatigue thing,” he said.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What free throws?<br><br>Tom Vodanovich knocks down the clutch triple <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL21?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL21</a> <a href="https://t.co/9rAYatzxe2">pic.twitter.com/9rAYatzxe2</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1391283210034683904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



But the biggest challenge is owning the defensive boards, while playing an aggressive, rotating defence, and asking players to front up for big minutes game after game.

The 36ers punished them with 33 second chance points, and given Brisbane is the league’s number three offensive rebounding team, that shapes as a game-breaker once again.

“I want to be upset but the guys are exhausted, they’re fighting hard,” Forde said.

“In the second quarter we held them to 18, and out of their 18 point 10 of them were off second chance points, so when they went to that small-ball line-up, and they did a good job of getting it through hands and moving, they were still getting those second chance points when we were bigger.

“So even with the guys who are missing, the reality is we still have very capable rebounders.”

But Forde knows the talent is there to make a run to the playoffs, and he knows his resilient squad will fight to the end, especially with Cooks to get better and better down the stretch.

“I can’t fault them for how hard they're playing, and in the end that’s probably all you can ask for,” he said.