R16 Preview: Illawarra Hawks vs SE Melbourne Phoenix

Thursday, March 17, 2022

It's all on the line for Tyler Harvey and the Hawks in their final home game of the season, while Mitch Creek and Phoenix desperately need to break a two-game skid.

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 17 March 2022

Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ

Who won the last time?
Illawarra 83 (Rathan-Mayes 19, Cleveland 16, Jessup 15) d South East Melbourne 77 (Creek 18, Broekhoff 15, Le’afa 14) – Round 14, John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Everything was coming up Milhouse for South East Melbourne when they led the Hawks by 10 with 12 minutes to play, but then they went away from the dominant Mitch Creek, scored just six points in the next 7:30 and watched as Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Justinian Jessup and Antonius Cleveland combined for 30 points in nine minutes to put the visitors in front for good.

What happened last start?

That win took the Hawks to 5-2 on the road, and a follow-up W in Hobart would have catapulted them to third place. They were outplayed much of the night, however, unable to defend the arc and rarely able to generate offence from their D. With Thursday their final home date of NBL22, anything but a win is going to make the post-season a tough ask.

For the Phoenix, their Throwdown loss was almost like Groundhog Day from their Round 14 capitulation to the Hawks. They led by 12 with eight minutes to play after three exceptional quarters of basketball, only to be outscored 30-10 on the run home as their defence wavered and their offensive ignored the interior dominance of Zhou Qi and Creek.

Who’s in form?

Isaac White – There wasn’t a lot to take from Illawarra’s performance in Tassie, but White continues to be a quality sparkplug off the bench now he’s been given a chance. In 52 minutes across the past four games, the South Australian has delivered 37 points at 58 per cent and 16 rebounds, while delivering defensive energy that had sorely been lacking.

Xavier Munford – After a lull, X has scored 37 points at 50 per cent in the past two games, adding 12 boards and nine dimes, and that’s timely given the loss of Ryan Broekhoff for the next month. Munford has been hot against the Hawks, averaging 18.5ppg and 5.5apg in two meetings, with the Phoenix +16 with him on the floor and -21 in his 10:40 on the bench.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">X adding to his 1??9?? points ?<br><br>? Tune in on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> Freebies <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> <a href="https://t.co/bM9aaSldSd">pic.twitter.com/bM9aaSldSd</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1502881912217808899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who needs to be?

Tyler Harvey – Illawarra have shown they can win games without Harvey’s hot hand – they’ve prevailed five times with him scoring below 15 points – but if they’re going anywhere they need the NBL21 T-Raw to reappear. He’s hit just 6/27 from the field in the past two games, including an 0/8 stinker against South East Melbourne, and that’s unlikely to cut it again.

Simon Mitchell – Melbourne had no answer for Zhou Qi, yet in the final term he had just two post-up catches and no roll-out touches. His two post-ups resulted in 5 points, while SE Melbourne’s other 16 possessions generated just 12 points. Mitchell has called out his point guards previously, but this has become a trend, and the onus is on the coach to fix it.

Who’s statting up?

- In these teams’ two meetings, the Hawks have won bench points 66-19. Illawarra have won that stat 83-41 in their past three wins, but been whooped 70-38 in their past two losses, both to Tassie

- In Round 14 against South East Melbourne, the Hawks were +22 in 16 minutes with Cleveland and Tim Coenraad on the floor together. In the other 24 minutes they were -16

- The Phoenix are giving up 87.6ppg since the start of February, allowing more than 90 points in five of their 10 games. Across their opening eight games they allowed 79.5ppg and conceded more than 90 just once

- South East Melbourne gave up scores on the final nine possessions of the Throwdown, United scoring 22 points on 8/8 from the free-throw line and 6/7 from the field. They rebounded their only miss and scored

Who’s matching up?

Antonius Cleveland v Mitch Creek – Let’s start by saying Creek’s form is extraordinary, with 24.0ppg at 54 per cent, 38 per cent from range, 5.0rpg and 4.0apg in his past four games. His one quieter night was against the Hawks, but that was a tale of two parts. In 12 minutes with Cleveland and Coenraad on floor he had two points on 1/4 shooting and two turnovers.

In the other 21 minutes he sizzled with 16 points on 6/10 shooting and 0 turnovers. Put simply, Cleveland is the only match-up the Hawks have for the MVP candidate. When Creek hasn’t been able to score late in recent games, the Phoenix haven't been able to score. Will Goorj put AC on him from tip-off, or will Creek get another running start?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Circus shot by <a href="https://twitter.com/ac_uno1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ac_uno1</a> ?<br><br>?: <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreIllawarra?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreIllawarra</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FlyAsOne?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FlyAsOne</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> <a href="https://t.co/LTtseqFF3Q">pic.twitter.com/LTtseqFF3Q</a></p>— Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1500379017962086409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s talking the talk?

Rewind to May 3, 2021, with a month remaining in the NBL21 season, and the Hawks sat with an unimpressive 12-14 record, having dropped their previous three games to Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, the latter two by double-figures.

They didn’t look like a playoff team. But as the Kings, Bullets and 36ers succumbed to injuries to star players, Brian Goorjian’s men stuck to the task, won eight of their last 10 and surged into the playoffs.

That, and the mindset of his team, is giving Goorj hope they can repeat that dose this time around.

“I can honestly say the guys really understand the scenario they're in. Maybe we did make mistakes in quick shooting the ball, not executing like we could or at an elite level, but these guys want it really, really bad,” he said after their loss to Tasmania.

“We start the quarter 10 down and they hit two threes like bang, bang, now you're 16 down and you look up, this thing’s done.

“But there was no quit in them, there was no bad signs as far as that side of it goes. There’s other issues, other things you can be critical of, but as far as the understanding of the importance of the game, the desperation, the want, I've got no question at all.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No QUIT in <a href="https://twitter.com/IsaacLewisWhite?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@IsaacLewisWhite</a> ?<br><br>?: <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/FOXSportsAUS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FOXSportsAUS</a> 508 and <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <br> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreIllawarra?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreIllawarra</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FlyAsOne?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FlyAsOne</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> <a href="https://t.co/buq2CoTyXh">pic.twitter.com/buq2CoTyXh</a></p>— Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1502846722397327362?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That’s good, because while the scenario isn’t all that different in NBL22, the run home is much more difficult.

Last season, Illawarra only faced three top six teams in their final 10 contests. This year, seven of their final nine are against the other five playoff contenders, and six of those are on the road.

“You look at our schedule and it’s daunting,” Goorjian said.

“But what gives us a chance is the actual fact that we’re playing all the teams in the four, whether it be on the road or at home. We've got Sydney twice, we've got Perth, we've got Melbourne.

“If we lose those games we’re out, if we win those games we've got a great chance of getting in ... We play Phoenix at home the next game, if you win you’re back in it, if you lose you're starting to roll (towards) where you’re out of this thing.”

A lot of that is going to come down to their defence. The Hawks are 8-1 this season when they hold teams below 85 points, and 3-7 when they don’t.

In Round 14, they not only held the Phoenix to 77 – their third-lowest tally of the season – but kept them to 39 per cent from the field, just 13 free-throw attempts and forced seven turnovers in the final 14 minutes, their mobile line-up unleashing their running game.

“We talked about a huge person to get involved in the game is AC and how does he get involved in the game? He gets involved in the open court,” Goorjian said.

“To get the open court you’ve got to get stops and for most of the season we've been one of the worst defensive teams in the competition, so it’s closed that side of our game down.

“I thought we did a really good job (of that), we've struggled on on-ball defence, we've struggled with the Mitch Creek and the Vic Law, so AC’s match-up there was big for us.

“Then that bench coming in and getting stops, and getting out on the run gave us easy baskets, took the pressure off, that basket got a little bit bigger in the fourth quarter because we got some easy ones.”

The Phoenix have now lost their past three final quarters, and were pantsed 32-17 in the final frame by Melbourne.

Those late defensive woes compounded a trend where Simon Mitchell’s men have been unable to get their best offensive players in good positions down the stretch.

And without their stars drawing defensive attention, they are left with their role players playing individual basketball, Mitchell frankly stating that in “late shot clock situations we’re just a little too willing to chuck a three up”.

“We probably had an overabundance of three-point attempts,” he said.

“We need to be a team that strikes a better balance than we had tonight, we need to continue to get ourselves to the free-throw line.

“I don’t think we were very good when we had them in the bonus of putting enough heat on them to force a whistle.”

The biggest culprit is Izayah Le’afa, who has jack up 17 three-point attempts and 26 field-goal attempts the past two games, both losses.

When South East Melbourne’s defensive hard man takes double-figure attempts the Phoenix are 1-6 this season, compared to 8-1 on his more frugal nights.

The reality is opposition teams are picking Le’afa and his 34 per cent conversion as their poison, knowing if he's shooting, it means Creek, Qi and Munford aren’t.

It leaves quite the quandary for coach Mitchell, with Kyle Adnam shooting 3/15 in three games since he torched Perth.

Le’afa is much preferred as a defensive match-up, but his poor shot selection is like an outlet pass for opposition teams.

And while Munford can run the point guard, his is not adept at facilitating sets that run through other players, and with Broekhoff injured he is needed on the wings.

For Mitchell though, it’s just about better decision-making no matter who is on the court.

“If you come down and have a wide-open look from three and you miss it, ok that’s a shot that we like,” he said.

“Come down again and get a good look from three, miss it, ok well that was a good look, but maybe next time we need to get our feet in the paint, get a bit more action and try to get ourselves to the free-throw line instead of coming down and pulling the three-ball again.

“It’s tidying up that balance.”