R14 Preview: Melbourne United vs Brisbane Bullets

Saturday, March 5, 2022

Chris Goulding and Melbourne are back on a four-game winning streak, presenting a huge ask for the Sobey-less Bullets to stay in the playoff hunt.

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 5 March, 2022

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ

Who won the last time?
Melbourne 84 (Dellavedova 16, White 14, Goulding 12) d Brisbane 82 (Patterson 21, Sobey 18, Franks 10, Liu 10) – Round 8, Nissan Arena, Brisbane

Brisbane were outstanding in the first half, opening an 11-point lead as Nathan Sobey and Lamar Patterson had their way. But Chris Goulding and Jack White changed the game midway through the second, combining for 11 points in 150 seconds as Melbourne took a one-point edge into intermission. The second half was a wrestling match, United pulling 10 ahead, then a Matthew Dellavedova triple thwarted a Patterson-led late revival.

What happened last start?

Melbourne had to work for it again in the Far North last round, the Taipans erasing a 13-point deficit in the third term to set up a grandstand finish. However, United held their hosts to just 19 points in the final 13 minutes and rode even contributions to ease away. Goulding and Caleb Agada set up the win with a 14-point burst in the second stanza.

Brisbane got away from the grind against the JackJumpers and got the rewards, their high-intensity offence creating a fast-paced game that Robert Franks, Patterson and Sobey excelled in. Sobey was particularly influential in his 21 minutes, scoring 14 points and going +15, so it is gutting news for Bullets fans that he will now miss the next four weeks.

Who’s in form?

Robert Franks – He’s averaged 18.5 points the past six games, nailing three triples per night at 40 per cent, but Franks officially announced he was back against Tasmania by pulling in 11 boards, his first double-figure night since mid-January. In Bullets wins, Franks averages 9.3 caroms, compared to 5.8 in their past five losses, and if he wants to taste victory on Saturday night, he’ll need to fight Jack White tooth-and-nail on the glass and in transition.

Shea Ili – This Kiwi hard man always fights tooth-and-nail, dating way back to his shutdown of Tony Parker at the 2015 Olympic Qualifying Tournament. He’s been outstanding at both ends this season, particularly the past four games, where he’s delivered 11.3 points at 62 per cent from long range, to go with 4.8 assists and 2 steals alongside just 1.8 turnovers. With Brisbane light on in the guard department, Ili’s energy will test their depth severely.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We ? Shea Ili <a href="https://t.co/VmcgXYYC4L">pic.twitter.com/VmcgXYYC4L</a></p>— Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1495269399468855299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who needs to be?

Jason Cadee – The main target of Shili’s aggression will be JC, who has carried a huge load for the Bullets, averaging almost 33 minutes per game as a starter with Sobey out and then limited. In that time he’s dished 6.3 assists per game, but the usually frugal Cadee has also coughed up 3 turnovers per night, and he can’t afford to fuel United’s running game.

Chris Goulding – With Jo Lual-Acuil still awaiting the birth of his child he is a game-time decision, and his absence would put huge pressure on CG43 to tick the scoreboard over. Last time against Brisbane, Goulding went 4-of-16 from the field and Lual-Acuil was held to 11 points and 5 turnovers, allowing the Bullets to almost pinch an unlikely win.

Who’s statting up?

- Last time these teams met, 44 per cent of all rebounds were pulled down by the offensive team. The league average is 27 per cent

- Brisbane allows opponents to grab 30 per cent of o-boards this season, compared to Melbourne’s miserly 24 per cent

- In losses, Caleb Agada averages 10.8 points at 31 per cent, 2.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists. In wins those numbers are 14.5ppg at 42 per cent, 8.2 boards and 2.8 dimes

- When Lamar Patterson dishes 6 or more dimes the Bullets are 3-1. When he has 2 assists or less they are 0-5

Who’s matching up?

Caleb Agada v Lamar Patterson – Lamar had a game-high 21 points last time against Melbourne, fighting through their physical defence to keep the Bullets in touch. The advantaged-based style that had allowed the season to become a grind has largely been canned in recent weeks, however, with tighter calling allowing offensive stars to shine.

Patterson has relished that freedom with 20.2 points and 5.6 assists the past five games, his playmaking on full display with 10 dimes against Tassie. There are few better defenders than Agada, but can he overcome Lamar’s size advantage? At the other end, Caleb has rediscovered his touch with 14.5ppg at 63 per cent and 4.5 dimes the past two games.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Caleb dime ? Jack dunk ? <a href="https://t.co/1qTVuzPOB2">pic.twitter.com/1qTVuzPOB2</a></p>— Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1497813784509186048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s talking the talk?

If you don’t have the ball, you don’t win. It’s a pretty simple rule of thumb, and possession is especially king in the NBL, where almost every game is a fierce contest.

So it’s understandable Bullets coach James Duncan was annoyed after his team gave Melbourne 15 second shots and 15 turnovers in Round 8 and lost by just two.

“It’s like putting your hand on the stove a number of times and getting burnt on it and getting burnt on it, hopefully sooner or later you're going to learn from that, we just haven't learned the ultimate lesson,” he said.

“When we take care of the ball we put ourselves in a position to win games, we get more shots at the rim, but there’s just times when our focus drops and we get loose with it.”

It was the same on the glass, where Jo Lual-Acuil, Caleb Agada and Jack White grabbed key offensive boards at key moments.

“What separates the top teams from the other teams, they're consistently second, third and maybe even fourth defensive rotations and that effort, they finish off plays by d-rebounding,” Duncan said.

“There’s a recipe for winning but it’s not easy to do, and that’s what we’re learning right now. We can play well for 25 minutes, but those other 15 minutes if we’re not up for the task it’s hard to win.”

Of course, Brisbane pulled in a staggering 23 offensive rebounds themselves that night, and forced United into 16 turnovers to put them on the cusp of a boil over.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SOBEY TAKES FLIGHT ?? <br><br>Bullets lead United 28-17 after the first quarter!<br><br>Watch live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espnausnz</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/kayo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayo</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BRISBANEBULLETS?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BRISBANEBULLETS</a> <a href="https://t.co/esyx4ZfNQm">pic.twitter.com/esyx4ZfNQm</a></p>— Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1486195069799772162?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That roller-coaster sums up the Bullets’ season, which features seven single-figure losses by an average of 4.9 points.

But last week against Tasmania they produced close to their best four-quarter display of the season, shooting 50 per cent while holding the JJs to just 42 per cent at the other end.

“We were so close the last two or three weeks with every game, we just didn’t get that reward,” Nathan Sobey said after defeating Tassie.

“So for the group to be able to get a reward now and see the way we played at both ends of the floor puts us in a better stead when those situations happen again.”

The Bullets dropped 22 dimes that night, Patterson with 10, in an unselfish display that resembled a Lemanis-coached team and rarely let Tasmania’s defence get set.

“This is the message we've been talking about throughout the course of the season, they guys came in really focused on doing that,” Duncan said.

“Just being able to have someone like (Patterson) make passes and find guys … having someone else who can do that helps our team, they can’t just focus in on Sobes and Jase, at the same time you guys see he can put the ball in the basket as well.

“Tonight there was a happy balance, and you could see throughout the course of the team, how we played, it was clean good basketball, it was enjoyable basketball.

“Even when we missed some shots everyone was up on the bench and you could feel it within the crowd, it was a good shot, do it again, and we were able to stick to that game plan.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Three ? Steal ? Assist ?<br><br>Huge work from <a href="https://twitter.com/DengDeng19?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DengDeng19</a> for <a href="https://twitter.com/rorkprojects?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@rorkprojects</a> Play of the Game<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BRISBANEBULLETS?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BRISBANEBULLETS</a> <a href="https://t.co/ZDcGxdzNyN">pic.twitter.com/ZDcGxdzNyN</a></p>— Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1497716676279689216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Bullets are now 5-2 when they pass 90 points, but that’s not easy to do against United, who have conceded that number just twice in 16 games.

They held teams below 80 points nine times, and that usually starts with their tandem point guards throwing opponents out of their offence.

Scott Machado got the treatment last week, and expect a dual focus on Cadee and Patterson on Saturday night.

“When Scotty’s making 80 per cent of the decisions for (Cairns) good things happen for them,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

“So our ability to have Shea and Delly stop him catching the ball, make other people have to advance it up the floor, takes away some of the great decisions he makes for his team.

“They're a lethal combination backcourt defenders, every night someone’s going to have a tough job trying to get past those two.”