R13 Preview: Tasmania JackJumpers vs Perth Wildcats

Monday, February 28, 2022

If Josh Magette and the JackJumpers can tame Bryce Cotton and Perth at MyState Bank Arena, they'll move within half-a-game of the Cats in fourth place.

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Monday 28 February 2022

Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sport NZ

Who won last time?
Perth 101 (Law 32, Cotton 23, Frazier 13) d Tasmania 83 (Magette 17, Adams 15) – Round 3, RAC Arena, Perth

A 21-7 run across quarter-time, triggered by seven-straight Corey Shervill points and punctuated by a Luke Travers steal and jam created a gap the JackJumpers could never recover from. Bryce Cotton and Vic Law combined for 55 points, while Perth scored 80 points in the final 30 minutes as they toyed with Tasmania’s defence. That was mutual though, 11 JJs getting on the scoreboard as they tallied 68 points after the first break.

What happened last start?

Scott Roth’s men had no troubles running up points on Brisbane early on, scoring 40 in just over 17 minutes as they went 8/15 from long range, but they only managed 38 in the next 22 minutes as they hit just 3/15 from the arc. While their hot three-point shooting has been a handy crutch, their slipping interior defence without Will Magnay is the big concern.

Perth’s inability to guard the arc in their past four losses, formerly a great strength, would be concerning Scott Morrison. Against the Phoenix on Saturday, some woeful ball-screen defence opened them up to penetration, while their small-ball line-ups were exposed by Mitch Creek and Zhou Qi in the post, who commanded constant double-teams.

Who’s in form?

Vic Law – After averaging 11.7 points at 29 per cent the previous three games, Law returned to form against South East Melbourne with 22 points at 47 per cent and nine boards, along with a high level of intensity. He shot 7/12 from inside the arc, exactly the same as when he ran up 32 on Tassie in Round 3, so if his ankle’s good to go expect plenty of mid-post catches on Monday night.

Jack McVeigh – The man charged with fighting the Law is McVeigh, who dropped 21 points on 4/6 from range in Brisbane. After a slow start to NBL22, McTrey has averaged 15.5ppg at 45 per cent from outside the past six games, resulting in four JJ wins. His board work is just as important though, averaging 5.0 in wins compared to 2.9 and just 1.2 d-boards in losses.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Back to back 3’s! McVeigh has us rolling in the ‘gong ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FEARTHESTING?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FEARTHESTING</a> <a href="https://t.co/IztlDZa98e">pic.twitter.com/IztlDZa98e</a></p>— Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1495288366585106432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 20, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who needs to be?

Matt Hodgson – Big Hodgy has had a most interrupted season, but the Cats must have loved his 10 points and seven boards in 16 minutes on Saturday, Perth +10 with him on the floor thanks to his outstanding composure and finishing around the rim. With development player Jock Perry the only active JJ over 203cm, Hodgy needs to roll, seal and maintain his poise to punish them.

Tassie’s interior D – No one protects the arc better than the JackJumpers, who concede 6.7 triples at 27 per cent – the rest of the NBL averages 9.3 at 33 per cent – chasing off the line works well when Will Magnay is patrolling the paint. Yet while his fellow ‘bigs’ are fighting hard, opposition teams have marched to the free-throw line 101 times in the past four games.

Who’s statting up?

- The JackJumpers have leaked 87ppg in their past four contests, with 68.3 of those coming from two-pointers and free throws. In their opening 11 games they allowed 76.1ppg with 55.6 from ‘ones and twos’

- Perth the only team to score above 83 points against Tasmania in the opening two months of the season, running up 101 in Round 3, with 71 of those from ‘ones and twos’

- The Wildcats took 65 per cent of their field-goal attempts from two-point range that day, and won points in the paint 44-42. Over the rest of the season they take just 56 per cent of attempts from inside and are -70 in the paint

- Perth have conceded 93.3ppg in their past four losses on 11.3 triples at 37 per cent. Over the rest of the season they hold teams to 79.2ppg on 6.9 threes at 26 per cent

Who’s matching up?

Josh Adams v Bryce Cotton – It was always going to happen. Adams got hot in the ‘Gong, drained 8/11 threes and then next game took half his attempts from outside and managed just two free throws. Take out that Illawarra blitz and JA is 20/81 from deep, but averages 16 points from ‘ones and twos’ in Tassie’s other six wins. Get to the rack Josh!

With Mitch Norton missing on Monday, Cotton will be asked to do more defensively, and he'll have a bee in his bonnet at the other end after Izayah Le’afa and the Phoenix held him to 5/16 from the field and 1/9 from outside. The past seven times the MVP has been held to 16 points or less he’s responded by averaging 27.1 points the next game. Watch out JJs!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Things we ?? to see. BC time! <a href="https://t.co/T1hyxKVFEQ">pic.twitter.com/T1hyxKVFEQ</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1497517382897913858?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s talking the talk?

Tasmania coach Scott Roth was brutally honest about why his team had clicked so early into its expansion year.

“When I put this team together I had two things in mind, culture and character. I tried to find the highest character guys that I could regardless of talent,” he said.

“I think culture wins in the long run, it’s been proven in Australia at multiple levels at different teams.

“I just left a great franchise in Perth that bleeds culture, and if we’re going to do anything here in Tasmania that was my number one goal and foundational thing to do, not worry about wins and losses, but have a team that’s gritty, that represents the state, that builds culture, that people can be proud of.”

For 12 long years under Rob Beveridge and Trevor Gleeson, Perth’s on-court culture was about defence, rebounding and sharing the ball, and Western Australia was mighty proud.

This year, with no Beveridge, Gleeson, Damian Martin, Shawn Redhage, Matt Knight or Greg Hire, that culture is being tested and the sands of inconsistency have crept in.

While the line-up still features four championship Wildcats, as a unit they're struggling to execute the little things often enough.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hodgey spins out of trouble & slams it! <a href="https://t.co/CFVmkDTLZJ">pic.twitter.com/CFVmkDTLZJ</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1497516224984797185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“They know what’s going on, they know what the results are, they know that these moral victories of good second halves and coming back from deficits aren't helping us,” coach Scott Morrison said.

“We definitely show in spurts that we’re as good as any team in the league, then we have spurts where we let other teams get going.”

It may sound simple, but it’s hard to be consistent without consistency.

Todd Blanchfield and Mitch Norton have played just eight of 14 games, Matt Hodgson nine, Michael Frazier 10. They’ve had three different starting line-ups the past four rounds.

Vic Law and Luke Travers are under a cloud for Monday night and Norton is out.

The Wildcats were -16 in the 9:55 their feisty point guard rested against South East Melbourne, and given Tasmania’s help-based defence is vulnerable in the corners, Norton’s penetration from ball reversals will be greatly missed, a role Frazier will need to fill.

That penetration has been far more effective against the JackJumpers without Will Magnay, their slipping defence leaking 94 points to Brisbane on Saturday.

“We scored enough points to win the game, our problem was defence,” coach Roth said.

“My goal is to drive teams into the 70s along the way and hopefully we get to the 80s and we just didn’t do it tonight.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? DENG ? GOES ? BANG ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/AsqVPWuBXq">pic.twitter.com/AsqVPWuBXq</a></p>— The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1497466739621494786?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tassie haven't done that in almost a month, when they held Sydney to 70 on the night Magnay banged his troublesome knee.

They now sit 7-8 and a loss to Perth will leave them 2.5 games behind the 'Cats and Kings in third and fourth.

Just 16 days ago, ScoMo’s men were playing Melbourne for first place on the ladder, but a loss Monday will put them outside the top four and only 0.5 games clear of Tassie in sixth spot.

While one emotional Wildcats fan claimed on social media that without the axing of Morrison and Frazier their playoff streak is done, the reality is they have lost three-straight road games by a total of 15 points to the current top three sides.

With eight wins already on the board, and their final nine games likely to be played at RAC Arena, Morrison knows they’ve just got to find a way to grind some Ws before heading home.

“It’s going to be a tough game on Monday, that’s what we have to turn our attention to,” he said.

“It’s going to be another battle, every game is a battle, that’s our issue that we don’t recognise that battle is 40 minutes ... (but) we have some positives to build on.

“Our rebounding has improved, we did a good job on the glass tonight, there were some other things that broke down.

“We've just got to try and get everything clicking at the right time and get enough aspects of our game fine-tuned that we can put together a 40-minute effort.”