Preview: Tasmania v Sydney (Round 17)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 27 January, 2023
Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won last time?

Sydney 97 (Cooks 23, Vasiljevic 13, Simon 12) d Tasmania 77 (Steindl 13, Macdonald 11) – Round 13 at Qudos Bank Arena

Locked down to just six fourth-quarter points by the JackJumpers in their Round 10 loss, Sydney didn’t wait until late this time to put themselves in a winning position. They blew their visitors away with a 43-18 demolition in 15 minutes surrounding half-time. Tasmania were unable to score at one end and incapable of stopping Xavier Cooks at the other as they got smacked 56-20 on points in the paint.

What happened last game?

It was the Kings getting blown out in the middle quarters last round, as they trailled by 14 at the half after giving up a 17-4 run leading into the break. They recovered to take the lead late, but Will McDowell-White guided New Zealand home to inflict back-to-back defeats on the champs. The JackJumpers made up for their home defeat to South East Melbourne with a stirring road win in Cairns. Matt Kenyon produced the standout performance at both ends of the floor - including two big triples as Tasmania unleashed a 15/29 barrage from beyond the arc.

What’s working?

Moving and shooting – If Tasmania gets its ball movement going the team creates good outside looks and, inevitably, usually win. The JackJumpers average 91.4ppg, 18.1 assists and 12 three-pointers at 38 per cent in victories, compared to just 76.3ppg in losses with 13.4 assists and 8.5 triples at 31 per cent in losses. In eight meetings all-time with Sydney, the JackJumpers have yet to reach 91 points, and have only shot above 34 per cent from the three-point line once.

Running them off – After Tasmania scored 32 points on 5/7 triples and seven assists in the opening 12 minutes in Round 13, the Kings closed out hard on shooters, chased over the top of screens and forced the JackJumpers into eight of their next 12 attempts off the dribble – with two others from one-pass offences – as they outscored their visitors 27-10 in eight minutes. The Kings’ aggression broke the structure of the JackJumpers' offence while also helping crumble their opponents' defence.

What needs stopping?

The Kings – While Tasmania has struggled to score against Sydney, that certainly hasn’t been mutual. In six wins over the competition's newest side the Kings have averaged 94.2ppg at 55 per cent from the field and 30 points from threes. In two defeats, those numbers have shrunk to 73.0ppg at 46 per cent and nine points from outside. Though Scott Roth’s men don’t find a regal solution all that often, when they shut down kick-out threes good things happen.

Stopping – With 3:30 to play against New Zealand, Derrick Walton Jr pulled in a defensive rebound with his team on an 8-4 run. He thought about motoring, but opted for half-court offence instead, and over the next three minutes the Kings managed three points on 1/6 with all their field-goal attempts coming in the back-end of the shot clock. The Kings played into the methodical Breakers’ hands, as they did to the JackJumpers in that fatal Round 10 fourth quarter, and it’s important Walton and company dare to win rather than play it safe.

Who’s missing key men?

Both teams are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

JackJumpers v Xavier Cooks – Behind closed doors, Tasmania would be filthy with how it defended Cooks in Round 14. The JackJumpers left Jack McVeigh on an island as the MVP fancy ran up 23 points on 10/12 shooting, all within four feet. It was a very un-JackJumper like performance, particularly in how they allowed the Cooks to advance the ball under little to no pressure. Expect a much different team approach this time around to make Cooks and company uncomfortable.

Matt Kenyon & Sam McDaniel v Derrick Walton – In two meetings, Walton has put on 16.0ppg at 57 per cent inside and 5.5 assists against Tasmania, interestingly going a game-high +18 in Sydney’s win, but a game-worst -17 in their defeat. He hasn’t faced Kenyon or McDaniel yet though, and the latter’s physicality perhaps presents the ideal match-up. After Kenyon piled on 15 points in Cairns along with outstanding hustle and defence, he may get the first crack.

Milton Doyle v Justin Simon – There’s nothing complicated about this match-up, when Tasmania loses Doyle averages 14.4ppg and shoots 24 per cent from outside. When they win, he ups that to 19.2ppg at 39 per cent. In the JackJumpers' win over Sydney he had 25 points on 5/10 from deep, while in the Round 13 loss Simon spearheaded the defensive effort that held Doyle to nine points on 1/5. The winner of this battle will have a big say in the result.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BIG moment from Milton Doyle in the 4th <a href="https://t.co/JCWHYnsm3p">pic.twitter.com/JCWHYnsm3p</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1601832972097064960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

There was no sugar-coating going on at Scott Roth’s press conference last time the JackJumpers were in Sydney.

“They just got after us in an old-fashioned butt-whooping, there’s nothing more to say. They were much more aggressive and we got our butts handed to us,” he said.

“I think it was just more of an effort thing, they just got after us and once the ball started going in and we started breaking some assignments it started opening up a lot of things for them.

“They played very well and we just couldn’t handle them, we couldn’t guard them.”

New Zealand certainly found a way to guard them on Sunday, keeping the Kings to a miserly 40 per cent on two-point makes and just 36 points in the paint, even if Chase Buford didn’t want to give credit.

“It’s hard to win games against anybody when you miss as many point-blank shots at the rim as we did, and miss as many free throws, especially down the stretch,” he said.

“I think we locked ourselves down, we missed more lay-ups and shots in the paint than they took. We missed 25 in the paint and they take 24, that’s not going to happen very often for us or for any team.”

In reality, the Breakers did an outstanding job of getting in the passing lanes and then getting bodies between Kings’ penetrators and the basket, while limiting their chances in the open floor with patient and controlled offence.

It’s something Tasmania did outstandingly well in the final quarter in Round 10, but true to form they didn’t receive credit.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Seany mAccurate ?<br><br>? Live + Free on 10 Peach, 10 Play &amp; Kayo Freebies <a href="https://t.co/sSx99FZzgI">pic.twitter.com/sSx99FZzgI</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1601825267085094912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Our offence got really stagnant, we started trying to play one-on-one too much, couldn’t come and get the ball, just a lot of things that were totally different to what we were trying to do,” Buford said post-game.

“As a team we try to be an attack-the-rim team and let that set up our game, we limited ourselves with some of the obnoxiously dumb turnovers we had tonight more than anything.”

Kings fans will be hoping that behind closed doors there is a greater awareness of the issues good opponents are creating for Buford’s men.

The ladder leaders are now 3-7 in single-figure games against teams not named Illawarra, and in two of those wins they hung on for grim death against the Kiwis.

When opposition sides are able to control the tempo with their offence, Sydney have struggled to show the defensive versatility to speed up the game and the offensive bravado to turn a grind into a track meet.

When their defensive energy is on early, however, they can blow teams out in a heartbeat – 10-0 in double-figure games – as they did in Round 13 against Tasmania after a slow start.

“We dug our heels in, we said we’re not going to go down this route and the fight and the willingness to play for each other was really good,” said Kevin Lisch, who took the reins that night.

“We gave up 26 points (in the first quarter) and that’s way too many. Just our activity and the way they scored was just too easy.

“It was a pretty simple message (at quarter-time) and the guys did it themselves, they said, ‘No, this is not how we play’ and dug in there and D’d up the last three quarters.”

With the JackJumpers rushed offensively, their physical defence couldn’t get set, the floodgates opened and Sydney poured in 52 points in the middle quarters.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? RATED <br><br>Live on ESPN via Kayo Sports + Foxtel <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/32m7qlsze0">pic.twitter.com/32m7qlsze0</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1608755183378481153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 30, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“When we’re on top of people and being physical and we’re up in the lanes and pushing them out of their stuff we’re really tough, but we've failed to be consistent,” Jarred Bairstow said post-game.

“We let them get out in transition, we played into their hands taking quick shots and went one-out a lot, so there’s a lot of things that were within our hands to control.

“We let them shoot 79 per cent from two, they were living in the paint and that’s something we 100 per cent control.

“We can build walls and help each other out, that’s entirely on us and we have to take ownership for that loss.”

At 14-11 and with Sydney and Perth hitting the island this weekend, the JackJumpers can own a playoff record by round’s end or alternatively be on the outside looking in.

Coach Roth believes if they play with the intensity and physicality they showed in their inspiring win in Cairns the rest will take care of itself.

“I've said all along our motto is our defence travels, and if you bring it with you everywhere you go you at least have a chance,” Roth said.

“You’re not going to just go into buildings and outscore people, we’re not built that way, some teams are, we’re built to play defence and keep the ball in front of us as best we can …

“We’re trying to make 600,000 people in Tasmania proud of this group and when they put in an effort like that (against Cairns) the state should rally around that.

“I know they do and we should have a great atmosphere when we get to (play) Sydney.”