Preview: Sydney v Tasmania (Round 13)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 30 December, 2022

Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ

LIVE SCORES AND STATS

Who won last time?

Tasmania 84 (Doyle 25, McVeigh 18, Kelly 11) d Sydney 76 (Walton 21, Vasiljevic 17, Cooks 12) – Round 10 at Qudos Bank Arena

Sydney took control in Round 10 with a 31-19 third quarter as they repeated the script of their NBL22 grand final sweep. Only no one told the JackJumpers, who fought back from 14 down early in the final term, holding the league’s highest-scoring team to two points in nine minutes to post a remarkable win, with Milton Doyle and Jack McVeigh hitting the big shots.

What happened last game?

The JackJumpers took down the ladder leaders and then did likewise with the second-placed Breakers on Boxing Day, marching to a double-figure lead in the first stanza and never letting New Zealand closer than seven as their disruptive defence starved the Kiwis of flow. The Kings played the same trick on Melbourne, surging 17 ahead in the second term but had to face a serious rear-guard action from Rayjon Tucker and Co. However, with Xavier Cooks dominant and their defence forcing United into 51 three-point heaves, Sydney cruised to victory.

What’s working?

Paint points – The Kings were +22 on paint points against Melbourne, and have gone +22, +24, +24, +22 and +22 in their past five games against Tassie, allowing just 21.6 points inside the key. It was a different JackJumpers side on Boxing Day though, winning PiPs 46-24 as Rashard Kelly (4/4), Jack McVeigh (5/8), Will Magnay (4/5) and Milton Doyle (3/4) converted 32 inside points at 76 per cent. Can they repeat that against Sydney’s paint-packing defence, given the JJs have averaged 38.4 three-point heaves in the teams’ past five meetings?

Methodical offence – In Tasmania’s 26-4 fourth-quarter run to cane the Kings in Round 10, they went 4/5 from outside the arc, but it was their method that was most impressive. In the final six minutes, seven of their 11 shots came more than 15 seconds into the possession as they stifled Sydney of running opportunities. Interestingly, all four quick shots were at the hand of Jack McVeigh, and three of them were successful early-offence three-pointers.

What needs stopping?

Up-the-floor defence – In trying to reduce opposition free-throw counts in light of the in-season change in interpretations, the JackJumpers lost some of their defensive bite, forcing just 14 turnovers across two Round 11 losses. They were back with a vengeance last round, forcing 38 cough-ups from Illawarra and New Zealand. Their pressure was important last time against Sydney, winning points from turnovers 19-9, but Derrick Walton and Co will be better prepared this time, so a balance is needed to apply heat without opening the back door.

Xavier Cooks – The X-man’s past six full games have produced 19.2ppg at 62 per cent, 9.3rpg and 4.0apg as he shows the Grand Final MVP form the JackJumpers had no answer for, but his one quiet game in that stretch was against Tassie. The JJs kept him to just 10 shot attempts, including only one in the final quarter by crowding him on the roll and shrinking the floor with help defenders when he had the ball. Expect Sydney to initiate the offence more through Cooks and set him free via step-up screens to make the D adjust.

Who’s matching up?

Justin Simon v Milton Doyle – In Round 10, Doyle was the difference with 25 points and four assists, draining 5/10 from distance and draining Sydney’s hopes with nine clutch points in the final seven minutes. Of note, Doyle didn’t make a basket from inside 10 feet all game, exposing Sydney’s drops defence with his classy pull-ups as Bryce Cotton did to the Will Weaver regime. Can Simon climb over picks and chase down his shots from behind?

Derrick Walton v Josh Magette – For a large part of the game, Walton destroyed Tasmania last time, racking up 19 points by three-quarter-time on 6/7 from inside five feet and 5/5 from the foul line. In the final term, though, he went 1/5 from the field, 1/3 at the cup and didn’t get to the foul line as his team’s offence dried up. His most important job during droughts is to generate speed and make sure his teammates come along for the ride.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Derrick slicing and dicing early!<br><br>Catch all the action on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> 10Play<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/VtCxDcmPmI">pic.twitter.com/VtCxDcmPmI</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1601810142516879360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

After Tasmania outscored the Kings by 22 points in the final nine minutes at Qudos Bank Arena four weeks ago, Chase Buford wasn’t in the mood to answer questions, but the curt responses he gave certainly didn’t miss his players.

Chase Buford cut a surly figure after the Round 10 clash between these two sides.

Tasmania outscored the Kings by 22 points in the final nine minutes on that occasion, and Buford left little room for interpretation in his post-game comments.

“We just suck in the fourth quarter, we’re soft,” he said.

“We limited ourselves with some of the obnoxiously dumb turnovers we had tonight more than anything.”

After leading 72-58, the Kings lacked any energy to disrupt the JackJumpers’ methodical offence, the smarts to find Jack McVeigh in transition, and the courage to generate pace going the other way as Tassie’s pressure jammed the passing lanes and their proactive help crowded the key.

The result was five turnovers and just two field goals in the final quarter, while Tasmania went 8/16 from the field and racked up 26 points.

“Our offence got really stagnant, we started trying to play one-on-one too much, couldn’t come and get the ball, just a lot of things that were totally different to what we were trying to do,” Buford said.

“Defensively we were trash all night, we were lucky they only scored 39 in the first half, if they'd made shots it probably wouldn’t have been as close as it was.”

It was a stunning turnaround, given the Kings had won five straight against the JackJumpers and were seemingly cruising to victory, and coach Scott Roth described his team as “just relentless”.

“Our motto is always to defend the island and play as hard as we can, and they came in here quite scrappy and we held ourselves well enough together in the third to survive,” he said.

“It wasn’t pretty, they had some break-out moments there where we just missed assignments, but it was a gritty effort in the fourth quarter.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BIG moment from Milton Doyle in the 4th <a href="https://t.co/JCWHYnsm3p">pic.twitter.com/JCWHYnsm3p</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1601832972097064960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

While the defence got most of the plaudits, the control of their offence – no live-ball turnovers in the final term – to suck the life out of Sydney’s speed game was just as important.

They went repeatedly to the Milton Doyle-Will Magnay ball-screen – with Jack McVeigh at the top of the key – and it paid dividends, with their star import making a string of big shots and feeding McTrey for a back-breaking triple.

“Having Magnay on the floor has been helpful to him having a big target and McVeigh spacing the floor, they're gelling a little bit,” coach Roth said.

“Just the gelling of those two, now Jet has another partner, and Fab and JB have been great for us, they're just not as big a target as Magnay can be.”

Magnay played almost eight minutes in that final term and 21 for the game, after averaging just 14 in his three prior as he returned from almost a year on the sidelines.

He almost nudged 22 minutes in the Boxing Day win over New Zealand, dominating with eight defensive boards as the JJs allowed just six o-boards for the night.

Magnay has now accumulated 34 points at 57 per cent, 19 rebounds and eight blocks in his past 70 minutes, and will be a key to deterring Sydney’s paint-based offence led by Xavier Cooks and Derrick Walton.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FULL TIME. <br>A tight one till the end but we come away 11 points clear. <a href="https://t.co/UcYNSzrpen">pic.twitter.com/UcYNSzrpen</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1607328585576239104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“How quick the game comes at you when you’ve been out for 10 months is a bit of a shock,” Magnay said.

“Scott’s always comfortable in me, my teammates are always pushing me to do more and be confident and go score, so the confidence has always been there, it’s just I had my legs a little bit later in the game and able to make some plays and rebound.

“I am feeling pretty good.”

The Kings stayed on top of the NBL ladder by beating an understrength Melbourne on Christmas Day, but with the JackJumpers able to move within 1.5 games with a win on Friday, coach Buford is anything but content.

“There's always areas of improvement, which is why we had a good defensive review on the film today, as I feel we can be a lot tougher on the ball,” he said.??

“We're a good defensive unit but I honestly believe we've got a lot more to give on that end of the floor.”

If they again allow the JackJumpers to run their sets the visitors will control the tempo and force Sydney into walk-it-up offence, which has not been a strength this season.

Buford is asking his team to return to the ‘dogs on the ball’ mentality that sparks space and pace in their offence and sparked their championship success last season.

“We've got to firstly guard in the fourth quarter and not let them get easy buckets down the stretch,” Buford said.

“We've always got to move the ball better and play with more space, as we've had a tendency of getting stagnant at the end of games.”