Preview: New Zealand v Tasmania (Round 5)

Sunday, October 30, 2022

The Breakers have won five of six, the JackJumpers four on the bounce, who will give way when the NBL's two hardest-working units clash in New Zealand?

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 30 October, 2022
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

New Zealand 71 (Brantley 19, Le’afa 16, Brown 13) d Tasmania 65 (McVeigh 19, Kelly 13) – Round 2 at Spark Arena

This was a game only a mother, and thousands of long-suffering Kiwi supporters, could love. The Breakers finally returned home to Spark Arena and grinded out a win despite scoring just six points in the third term. The wayward JackJumpers stayed in the game through their relentless offensive rebounding, giving Jack McVeigh the chance to tie the scores with 20 seconds to play, then Izayah Le'afa held his nerve at the foul line to seal a gritty victory.

What happened last game?

New Zealand had a similar win in Cairns, then travelled to Adelaide and blew the 36ers out with their intensity. They dominated the possession game with some serious ball pressure, and finally finding range from the arc with 15 treys as they ran up a season-high 99 points. Tasmania scored a club-record 103 points last week against Perth, dishing 23 assists to nine turnovers and dropping 17 trifectas as seven JackJumpers connected from deep.

What’s working?

The supporting cast – Tasmania’s reserves are outscoring their counterparts by 12.4 points per game, ranking number one amongst bench units for points (34.3), o-boards (4.6), three-point makes (4.7) and percentage (46%). If you take out Rashard Kelly – the big man shooting 27 per cent en route to 15.4ppg and 7.9rpg – the JackJumpers’ bench is nailing 3.7 triples per night at 57 per cent, led by 13/19 shooting from Jarrad Weeks.

Dogging the ball – The Breakers quite simply took Adelaide out of their offence, getting physical at a playoff-like level that gave no space to jack up threes and tested out the 36ers’ ability to handle the rock under duress, recording 12 deflections in the second quarter alone. The result was 18 Sixers cough-ups and a remarkable 35 New Zealand points from turnovers as Jarell Brantley and Le'afa combined for seven steals.

What needs stopping?

Josh Magette – Rayan Rupert had only one theft but he largely nullified the play-making influence of Mitch McCarron, allowing other Breakers to test out the lesser ball-handlers. Magette is the straw that stirs Tasmania’s offensive drink – 22 assists to seven turnovers in the JJ’s winning streak – so don’t be surprised if the Frenchman is in his grill early, and then later on dogs the red-hot Weeks, whose left-hand dribble can be shaky.

Taking the ‘O’ out of home – While the Breakers have loved playing in front of their fans again, they’ve hardly put on an offensive show, averaging 74ppg in two games on 14/53 from long range. On Friday they dropped 15/30 with seven players landing at least one – the first time they’ve made above the league-average of 34 per cent in NBL23 – and they could need a repeat given Tasmania are hitting 13.8 at 38 per cent in their winning streak.

Who’s matching up?

Barry Brown v Matt Kenyon – James Brown might say he’s the greatest, but Barry Brown is making a strong claim, averaging 23ppg at 70 per cent inside the arc in his past two outings, including a ridiculous 6/7 on two-point pull-ups. The only game he’s scored below 20 points was against Tasmania, where he was forced into a 2/7 night on twos outside five feet, so Kenny must consistently apply side pressure and get help from his bigs at the rim.

Jarell Brantley v Rashard Kelly – Brantley destroyed the JJ’s last time with 19 points on 7/8 from the field and 2/2 outside to be a game-high +12. Interestingly, 13 of his points were scored with Kelly on the bench, so does Scott Roth make a change to his starting five or bring forward his first sub? Rashard’s past three games have delivered 16ppg at 61 per cent inside the arc along with 8.7 boards, so getting him out there earlier is unlikely to hurt.

Izayah Le'afa v Milton Doyle – Kelly isn’t the only JJ finding form, Doyle producing 17.5ppg, 5.8rpg and 2.5apg in Tassie’s four-game streak, shooting 38 per cent from deep but still scoring more than half his points from ‘ones and twos’. Le'afa has claimed the scalps of Tyler Harvey and Craig Randall in the past two rounds by physically invading their cylinder. Can he walk that fine line again? And does Doyle have the composure to handle it?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">When you only need one dribble past half-court to dunk ?‍??<br><br>Sky Sport 2 and Prime<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/MCwQFrUmRP">pic.twitter.com/MCwQFrUmRP</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1585931267211554816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Are there any teams in the Hungry Jack’s NBL that play harder than the New Zealand Breakers and Tasmania JackJumpers? The simple answer is no.

The Ants launched last season with a toughness that would define their club and entrench their connection with Tasmania, while the Breakers relaunched in NBL23 with a firm commitment to again becoming a franchise New Zealand would be proud of.

One result is the NBL’s two island clubs sitting second and third on the ladder, another was a dour, brutal Round 2 clash between the sides that saw just 136 points scored.

Tasmania have won four on the bounce, conceding just 73.8ppg at 42 per cent in that run, while the Breakers have triumphed in five of their past six, allowing 73.6ppg at 40 per cent.

Mody Maor’s men had been outstanding at protecting the paint, but in Adelaide on Friday they showed a new hand as they ran the sharp-shooting Sixers off the arc thanks to their ball pressure.

“There were a lot of good things today, the intensity on the ball, the way we closed the paint, and we were good in the rebound area for most of the game,” Maor said.

“The foundation is always going to be the same for us. It’s the intensity, the ball pressure, the maximum efforts and the scrambling. That’s where it lies for us.”

Both teams fully capitalise on the unique situation in the NBL where defenders can invade players’ cylinder without being whistled, turning opposing offences into a scrap.

So you’d expect Sunday’s game to be a repeat of the Round 2 grind, but perhaps not.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Defence and Three's was the story of last night. The boys forced 18 turnovers and hit 15/30 3pm.<br><br>Tickets still available for tomorrow's Halloween game against Tasmania!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/3hvFdPtOBf">pic.twitter.com/3hvFdPtOBf</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1586180115783819265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

New Zealand found their offensive mojo in Adelaide, running up 99 points and shooting 50 per cent from the arc as Barry Brown, Will McDowell-White and Izayah Le'afa shot a combined 8/19 after being 19/88 at 22 per cent leading in.

“It was just a matter of time till they dropped,” Maor said.

“We have good shooters on this team, and as long as we create good shots and guys take them in the right time and space, I don’t care if they make them or miss them. Today they made them.”

The JackJumpers have scored 91ppg in their winning streak, with 41.3 of those coming from outside the arc as reserve guards Jarrad Weeks and Sean Macdonald have dropped 12/25 to complement Rashard Kelly’s attack on the rim.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Macdonald on fire from 3 ?<br><br>Tune in on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/PAay9tMJJ4">pic.twitter.com/PAay9tMJJ4</a></p>— Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1583765186477166592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“The last two games, it was the bench that won us the game, they came on and they’re consistent,” forward Jack McVeigh said.

“(The starters) come out and there’s no drop off, so you know it’s a good battle for that six seven minutes.

“Our bench comes on and you’ve got Kells coming in, you’ve got Weeksy that’s shooting lights out, Seany Mac clamping full court and you know to see Sammy (McDaniel) back out there was awesome?

“When coaches have trust in that bench, and then the bench can buy in on the defensive end, and they’re coming in and winning games.”

The bench has averaged 35.5ppg in the streak to be +56 on opposition reserves, continuing the stifling defensive attitude that Matt Kenyon has reignited in the starting group after a soft start to the season.

“We’ve found our feet a little bit now and we’ve regained that identity, we’re putting teams on the back foot,” Kenyon said.

“We’re being pests defensively. We’ve just been getting back to that, being aggressors and making people uncomfortable.

“This is such a talented league that if people can just run around wherever they want and throw the ball wherever they want they’re great, but as soon as you put a bit of pressure on them and speed them up a little bit it makes it a lot harder for them.”

Whichever team can put their opponents on the back foot on Sunday, and get ‘downhill’ scores thanks to their defence is likely to take out the ‘Island Clash’.